kmbryant09

To add to my above post ^^^. I think Tamme will be very consistent week-to-week. For many TE's (Finley, V. Davis), they'll have 2 or 3 quiet weeks followed up by a massive 8/125/2 stat line. I expect Tamme to be the opposite. A lot of 5/60/1, 6/70, 5/80, 4/55/1, 5/55. Don't know about anyone else, but I hate inconsistency in fantasy football.

Here's the deal with Tamme: He will be a very consistent producer who doesn't have the potential that some other TE's have (Gronk, Graham, Hernandez, Finley, Davis, etc.). He will be one of Manning's favorite 'possession' targets, but probably won't score a lot of TD's. D. Thomas is a great red-zone threat, Decker seems to be Manning's favorite target, and Dreesen will be used in the redzone. I think Tamme is a pretty safe bet to catch 70 passes, 900 yards, and 4-8 TD's, but I wouldn't expect much more than that.

What's the point? His ADP is in the 14th round. QB's like Eli/Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers, Tony Romo, and Matt Ryan can be had in the 5th-7th rounds. Comparatively, the RB's that you'd be passing on to select one of those QB1's are guys like BJGE, Willis McGahee, and Roy Helu. Respective receivers are guys like Dwayne Bowe, Kenny Britt, and Reggie Wayne. The point is, the difference between settling for Sam Bradford as your QB1 instead of drafting Peyton Manning is like adding one of the above guys ^^^ to your roster, those guys are easily replaceable. Heck, even if you wait a little longer to draft a QB, you can get much better options in the 8th-10th rounds: Roethlisberger, Cutler, Schaub. The respective RB's & WR's in those rounds are guys like Michael Bush, Mikel Leshore, Sidney Rice and Santonio Holmes. When you look at it with a bigger picture, which of these 3 combo's would you rather? -Peyton Manning (Round 6), Jonathan Stewart(Round 8), and Jonathan Baldwin (Round 14) -Ben Roethlisberger (Round 8), Beanie Wells (Round 6), and Jonathan Baldwin (14) -Sam Bradford (14), Beanie Wells (6), and Malcom Floyd (8). Long story short, there's so much depth at QB in the middle rounds (6-10), that there's no need to wait another 5-8 rounds for Bradford. I understand passing up on the top5 QB's in the fist 2 rounds because you're giving up a stud RB or WR that you can build a team around. But those RB's and WR's in the 5th-10th round you're passing up? They are a dime-a-dozen.

I definitely agree, in theory. But I just don't think its practical. Welker has been arguably the most productive Wide Receiver over the past 5 seasons. Not counting his ACL - recovery season, he's averaged 117 catches/1,314 yards/6 Touchdowns. You can't just phase that out. Unfortunately for the Patriots, it's not Robert Kraft throwing the ball to Wes Welker. It's Tom Brady. Brady and Welker have a connection that most QB/WR combos can only dream of (specifically Jeff Garthia ), and Welker helps Brady as much as Brady helps Welker. That doesn't mean Welker makes Brady by any stretch of the imagination, but Welker is nearly uncoverable in the slot. The timing/chemistry that he has with Brady combined with Welker's quickness and route running makes it a nightmare for opposing defenses. Do you really think Tom Brady is going to start ignoring Wes Welker just because it helps the organization in contract negotiations? Is Bill Belichick going to pull Welker off the field in favor of Julian Edelman in hopes that the team doesn't need Welker? I just don't see it. Assuming Welker plays 16 games, I think he's a lock for 100/1,1000/5 - with some decent upside.

2012 Top 10: 10. Rashad Jennings (new) He's an injury/holdout from MJD away from being a top10 RB. Love the way he runs. 9. Ray Rice (returns) Somewhat of a down year for RR; he starts to wear down from the last 3 seasons' workloads. 8. Ryan Mathews (returns) Top3 combination of talent/opportunity; but durability concerns. I predict 12-15 games. 7. Doug Martin (new) Compares to Ray Rice, only younger/fresher. L. Blount doesn't scare me - should see 300+ touches. 6. DeMarco Murray (new) Proved last year that he's a talented runner. The unquestioned starter in a top10 offense. 5. Jonathan Stewart (new) Top10 talent in the NFL at the position. Should finally overtake DWILL as the #1 in a high-octane offense. 4. Jamaal Charles (new) With AP injured, I think Charles is the best RB in the NFL. He probably won't see enough touches to be the #1 RB. 3. LeSean McCoy (returns) Likely won't repeat his 20 TD's, but ultra-talented, can do everything, and in a great situation. 2. Chris Johnson (new) Never liked him, but he seems motivated. I think he has a bounce back season in 2012. 1. Arian Foster (returns) Best overall RB in the league. Foster had 1,800 and 12 last year...in 12.5 games! Barring injury, could flirt with 2,000+ and 18+ TD's. Obviously that's not how I would draft them, but thought I'd give a different look at the top10 list.

RLLD - I don't even know what piece-of-crap comments to even quote, so I'll just make a few points. You keep insisting that Thomas Jones was outplaying Jamaal Charles, specifically in the first half of 2010. So let's take a look, shall we? Through 8 games: Thomas Jones - 137 carries/570 yards/4.16 yards per carry 5 catches/40 yards/3 total touchdowns. Jamaal Charles - 127 carries/760 yards/5.98 yards per carry 26 catches/318 yards/3 total touchdowns. So Jamaal Charles accumulated nearly 200 more rushing yards despite getting 10 fewer carries - averaging nearly 2 yards more per carry - THINK ABOUT THAT - ON AVERAGE, EVERY TIME JAMAAL CHARLES GOT A HANDOFF INSTEAD OF THOMAS JONES, THE 2010 KANSAS CITY CHIEFS WERE 2 YARDS BETTER...EVERY SINGLE TIME. Cue some stupid attempt by you to spit out some football terms to make it sound like you know better than everyone else. He wasn't reading his gaps right, blah blah blah. You also seem to think that you predicted Charles' breakout. You did not. The closest you came to that was by calling him talented, and questioning whether he would ever pick up the necessary studies of the game to become a full-time RB. You also seem to think that your point is validated, or proven correctly, because the coaches agreed with you. First off, its not like you assessed the situation prior to coaches' decisions. It's not like in July you predicted that T. Jones would get 65% of the carries because Charles simply doesn't get it. You saw that the coaches were featuring Jones over Charles. Doesn't prove your point. It's also funny that you would WANT to agree with Todd Haley, or that somehow his opinion validates yours. Todd Haley got fired. He's gone. No longer the Head Coach of the Kansas City Chiefs. It was a very hot topic around the NFL, through the media, the Chiefs' fans,and fantasy footballers all over the world. Why the hell would Todd Haley insist on giving Thomas 3.0 ypc Jones more touched than Jamaal 6.0 ypc Charles. Also - this whole topic started 2 years ago BECAUSE Haley wouldn't give Charles more touches. That's what we're debating, you can't try and use that point to prove your argument. We were arguing whether the decision was right or wrong. Anyways, a few points about just how good Charles was in 2010 and why he should have seen the field more: -Not a short yardage back? Jamaal Charles rushed for a 1st down on 30.4% of his carries - highest mark in the NFL. -You didn't think Jamaal Charles could block? Cheifs ran the 3rd most 2-TE sets in the league...aka they had blockers if they really needed them. -Thought Charles was a homerun hitter? He had a 56% success rate - 3rd highest mark in the NFL. That statistic measures the % of successful running plays, or consistency. -Didn't think he was an all-around RB? He was one of a handful of RB's to put up a positive DVOA on every down. Thomas Jones? Racked up a negative DVOA on every down. Didn't think he could hold up? Charles averaged 6.9 yards per carry between his 11th and 20th attempts - 2nd highest in the league. None of these numbers are/were a fluke. You make it sound like Jamaal Charles finally turned the corner some time in 2010, and went from bust to boom overnight. You keep pointing to 2 things that Charles needed to improve - gap recognition and pass blocking. First off, I don't give a f*ck if he's hitting the right or wrong gaps - he was doing so 2 full yards per carry BETTER than Thomas Jones. Secondly, Charles has always been used in passing downs. He first saw time in the league as a 3rd down back, and caught 80+ passes in hi 26 games from 2009-2010. Thomas Jones had 24. At no point in 2010 was Thomas Jones a better RB than Jamaal Charles. No point. Stop kidding yourself. You are a very intelligent fantasy footballer. It's not a perfect science. Everyone gets things wrong from time to time. This time, you were flat out wrong. Which reminds me, at one point you even said that if you were proven wrong (about Jones being a better back and questioning whether Charles would ever emerge), you'd gladly admit that you were wrong. Since you've been beating your chest like you were 100% correct, what would it have taken for you to be wrong???? Charles to be cut and Thomas Jones selected to the ProBowl?

"Jones is clearly the back with better vision and understanding of reading the blocks and play pace, a fact apparently the coaches have recognized as well. Charles may or may not figure it out, given time. But right now i would play Jones over him on his sheer ability to individually exploit the opportunities his team is able to provide...That is my opinion as to why Jones is the better RB" "and I think Jones is simply better at reading, finding and hitting the holes....JMHO" "and I will be right.....once again....because Jones IS the better RB...Because Jones outplayed him" Those were just some of your quotes comparing Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones back in 2010. Would love to hear your delusional theory as to how you predicted Charles' breakout. In that thread from 2010, 9 out of 10 posts/posters were about how talented Charles was and how he needs to get more carries that Thomas 3.0 ypc Jones. You were pretty much THE ONLY ONE who had reservations about Charles. I'll repeat - THE ONLY ONE with reservations about Charles. So Charles blows up in 2010, and you think you look like a genius?

Whatever helps you sleep at night. Keep up your delusional argument

I think it's somewhere in between. I'm not sure the inflated passing #'s are merely a product of increased QB play - certainly rules, the lockout, player evolution, schemes, etc. played a part in it. I don't think we'll see quite the ridiculous #'s we saw last year, but I still expect the top QB's to pas for 4,500+ yards and 33-40 TD's. Considering that Manning threw for 4,200+ yards and 28+ TD's on a regular basis for 13 seasons in an environment that didn't support these modern inflated numbers, I wouldn't be surprised if a healthy Manning threw for 4,700 and 35+. I've got to strongly, strongly disagree with this part of your post. Using 2010 as an example for why Manning can't be a top3 QB is 100% proving yourself wrong. I believe he was the 2nd best fantasy QB in the league that season (his last full season). Also, 2010 as a whole was not a down year for Manning. He threw for 4,700 yards and 33 TD's! What you are referring to, however, is a 3-game stretch that saw Manning throw 11 INT's. But he also averaged 348 yards and 2.67 TD's in those 3 games. But yes, those INT's were very costly in real-life. In the other 14 games he played in 2010: 3,879 yards, 26 TD's, 6 INT's - including 4 must-win games to finish off the season in which Manning threw for 991 yards, 9 TD's and 2 INT's. To suggest that 2010 was an indication that Manning's skills are deteriorating is a bit of a stretch. Not to mention he had to deal with minor injuries to Reggie Wayne, Joseph Addai, Pierre Garcon and MAJOR injuries to Austin Collie & Dallas Clark - all things considered I think Manning was pretty damn good in 2010.

Do we have to go over this again? You couldn't have been more wrong on Charles entering the 2010 season. I think he did just fine with his assignments, the ones you were so worried about.

You bring up some good points of discussion, one that I want to get into is the idea of Hillis eating into Charles' production. First off, Jamaal Charles is insanely talented. If it wasn't for Todd Haley's stubbornness is 2010, Charles should have gotten ~300 carries, and likely would've flirted with 2,000 rushing yards. Instead, he gave Thomas Jones carry after carry after carry. At some point, the (new) coaches will/need to realize that Charles is too talented NOT to touch the ball 20 times a game. I understand he probably won't get that this year as he's returning from his ACL injury...But I'm confident his talent will trump Hillis by a pretty wide margin. Second, I'm not worried about Hillis vulturing TD's. Charles only had 12 COMBINED rushing touchdowns in 2009-2010, and still finished as one of the most productive RB's those seasons (2nd half of 2009, all of 2010). Charles doesn't need short-yardage TD's to be a RB1, he's already proven that. He scores from far out. He averages ~6 yards per carry. And he does damage as a receiver out of the backfield. Third, he's already proven to be productive in a timeshare. During Charles' 2010 breakout season, he only accumulated 41% of his teams' total carries! He wasn't even the leading rusher, attempts wise, on his team! I wish Jamaal Charles would have the opportunity to accumulate 300+ carries, potentially 350+ touches in a season. But I doubt it will happen - especially with Hillis in town. But I've seen what Charles can do with 220 carries, and its pretty damn impressive. I haven't really put together any sort of rankings yet this offseason, but I imagine I'll have Charles in the 5th-8th range. I wouldn't take him in the middle-late 1st round over guys like Brady/Brees/Rodgers/Calvin, but I think I'd be more comfortable with Charles than McFadden (ALWAYS injured), Peterson (a few months behind Charles in his recovery), MJD (holdout, wear & tear, bad offense), Lynch (one year wonder who got paid), or Forte (holdout, injury questions). And for what it's worth, the rest of the AFC West looks like they'll have trouble against the run (particularly Denver & Oakland). My early projections: 240 carries/1,320 yards/45 catches/350 receiving yards/8 total TD's.

Im curious why Manning's ceiling - his absolute best case scenario, is in the 6-10 range. If healthy, why can't Manning return as a top3 fantasy QB - where he's legitimately spent MOST of the past 13 seasons?

The Doctors have said he's as healthy as he was before the injury

Fair point, enough of Manning! QB: 1. Aaron Rodgers 2. Tom Brady 3. Drew Brees 4. Peyton Manning 5. Matthew Stafford 6. Philip Rivers 7. Eli Manning 8. Cam Newton 9. Tony Romo 10. Michael Vick **I worry about Stafford's and Vick's health since both have a history of injuries. I also wonder if Cam can duplicate his success after defenses have tape on him. RB: 1. Arian Foster 2. LeSean McCoy 3. Ray Rice 4. Chris Johnson 5. Jamaal Charles 6. Ryan Mathews 7. Darren Sproles 8. Darren McFadden 9. Matt Forte 10. Trent Richardson I think Charles will be 100% healthy, and its not like he needs 350 touches to produce (see 2010's historic season). Sproles may not catch 86 passes again, but he could double his rushing attempts (87 last year). Either way, I like what he can do with ~200 touches. I also think MJD is going to bust. Man he just looks so much slower on tape, is in a horrible offense, is a possible holdout, and the team gets R. Jennings back from injury. WR: 1. Calvin Johnson 2. Larry Fitzgerald 3. Andre Johnson 4. Wes Welker 5. Victor Cruz 6. Roddy White 7. A.J. Green 8. Dez Bryant 9. Demaryius Thomas 10. Hakeem Nicks While I think some of Cruz' long scores aren't repeatable, the dude gets open. He's extremely quick and fluid in-and-out of his breaks, ala Welker. Look what D. Thomas did over his final 7 games last season. TE: 1. Jimmy Graham 2. Antonio Gates 3. Rob Gronkowski 4. Aaron Hernandez 5. Jermichael Finley 6. Vernon Davis 7. Jason Witten 8. Brandon Pettigrew 9. Jacob Tamme 10. Coby Fleener I'll be keeping Gronk in one of my league's, but I have a gut feeling that he disappoints (TD totals are hard to repeat, seems a bit immature, coming off an injury and he's had injury issues in college, lots of mouths to feed). Also think Fleener picks it up right away - someone has to catch the ball in Indy - their defense will suck, leading to a lot of attempts for Luck.

Well I've already presented an argument, but I'll do it again. It's fair to suggest that your arguments has been based on 3 things: -Age -Lack of Weapons -Coaching staff/situation Correct? You specifically stated that IF HEALTHY, you still predict Manning to throw <25 Touchdowns. That's really the jumping off point for this debate. That one little paragraph in your original post. Age: I'm not sure the best way to compare Manning with past QB's. He's 36 years old. Two seasons ago, his last season, he threw for 4,700 yards and 33 TD's. Kurt Warner, age 36-38 - averaged 4,178 yards (pro-rated over full seasons) and 29.5 Touchdowns. Brett Favre, at age 40 (!) threw for 4,200 yards and 33 Touchdowns. John Elway, age 36-38 had 3 of his 4 best statistical seasons (at least QB Rating wise). I'd argue that Manning is a better passer than all of these QB's, and has EASILY put up better career statistics than all of them! Not to mention he's now in a more QB-friendly NFL than what Elway and Warner (to some degree) experienced. Lack of Weapons: I think you are correlating production and talent way too much here. 10 months ago, nobody knew who Victor Cruz was, he certainly wasn't regarded as a "talented" NFL WR. Now he's one of the focal points of a top receiving core. You can't simply look at D. Thomas' & E. Decker's numbers and assume they aren't talented. Especially given their QB/offensive situation. That's unfair, and simply lazy on your part. But IF YOU MUST JUDGE - why would you chose to ignore that Thomas was the 2nd most productive WR in the NFL down the stretch in 2011. His #'s over the final 7 games extrapolated over a full season would look like 80/1,700/9. That would qualify as talented, right? Decker's first 8 games (with Orton & Tebow, ignoring the SD debacle) extrapolated over a full season would like like 64/932/14. Pretty good for a 2nd option. And it's only safe to assume that their numbers would benefit from MUCH better Quarterback play. Even if we want to assume that his weapons aren't elite, can Manning still produce? I think he's proven that already. He made Austin Collie (an average slot-WR) look like an elite, ProBowl player (check his 2010 game log). He made Jacob Tamme (solid, average TE) a near ProBowl player. He turned Pierre Garcon (inconsistent, explosive #2 WR) a lot of $$$$ this offseason. He made Blair White (who will be out of this league pretty soon) look like a legitimate starting slot-WR. Not that it's exactly relevant, but I saw a statistic today comparing Marvin Harrison & Eric Decker pre-Peyton Manning. They had each been in the league for 2 seasons, and each averaged nearly IDENTICAL numbers - something like 4.3 catches/50-something yards/.5 touchdowns per game. Can we look back and say that Marvin Harrison wasn't talented? Because its the same logic people use to say that Decker & Thomas aren't talented. Anyways, I think he'll be fine with Thomas/Decker/Tamme/Dreesen/Caldwell/Stokley. Coaching Staff: If you really think Manning was brought in to be a game manager, or to take offensive orders from John Fox, then I really don't know what to tell you. This whole debate was under the assumption that Manning stays healthy. People can debate his health until they are blue in the face, but IF HEALTHY, I don't understand why someone would think that Peyton Manning is going to transform into some sh!tty, game-manager. But please don't sit back as an armchair Doctor and pretend to know Manning's diagnosis/recovery better than anyone else. Professional doctors have stated that so long as the fusion took place (which has been confirmed), than his neck will be JUST AS STRONG IF NOT STRONGER than before the injury occurred. What part of that makes him more susceptible to injury? Why the hell do people insist he's 1-hit away from retirement? What has been said by any respectable Dr., player, or from Peyton himself has suggested that he's a blindside hit away from being crippled? That's just completely ridiculous. I wrote for a Colts blog last year, and as a big Peyton Manning fan, I've read pretty much everything there's been written on his injury/surgery/recovery. The only situation in which he'd be MORE susceptible than any other NFL player would be if his condition was degenerative and genetic. I can't say for certain, but I think Peyton & his doctors would be able to tell. And people might be quick to mention Cooper Manning - Peyton's brother with a genetic muscle condition - Peyton has been tested for that disease and he's in the clear. Might he start off a little slow? Absolutely. But not because he's not physically ready to play football - but because it might take him a game or two to get up to speed in a live football environment. He's been throwing for 9 months! He was throwing last December! He was throwing all off-season. He was throwing during mini-camps, will throw and be at or close to 100% for training camp. And then he still has another month of pre-season to get ready! You guys act like week 1 will be his first time picking up a football since his injury. And for comparison's sake - Manning had off-season knee surgery in 2008. I forget some of the details, but the rehab was slowed or something - he wasn't nearly 100% for the start of the season. He didn't participate in pre-season games. He wore a heavy knee-brace (still does to this day because of this injury) and had a limp to start the season. He wasn't even mobile enough to execute the stretch-run play for the Colts - they used a Toss for the first time in Manning's career. AKA: he won't be NEARLY that rusty this time around. So what did he do in 2008? Threw for 4,000 yards, 27 TD's, 95.0 QB rating, and won the NFL's Most Valuable Player award. I'll take a slightly rusty Peyton Manning any day of the week.

Predicting a HEALTHY Peyton Manning to throw for fewer than 25 Touchdowns is pretty idiotic.

Comments in red. Again though, it's one thing to question the durability of Manning. Fine. I get it. But to state that you can't see A HEALTHY Peyton Manning, one of the all-time greats, who threw 33 TD's as a 35-year-old, who's never thrown FEWER than 26 TD's, playing in the most pass-friendly NFL, throwing for a mere 25 TD's is pretty idiotic.

Haaaaa, yes - John Elway signed Peyton Manning for $95 Million so that John Fox can use him as a game manager. That's funny sh!t

This is a pretty idiotic thing to say... Manning has LITERALLY thrown for 25+ touchdowns in EVERY SINGLE SEASON HE'S PLAYED IN THE NFL. He threw for 26 as a rookie. He threw for 31 in 2007 when Marvin Harrison got injured. He threw for 33 in 2010 with no running game, no offensive line, with injuries to Garcon/Collie/Addai/Clark. Not to mention that the league has continued to trend towards passing offenses the last few years, with last year being the pinnacle of them all. If healthy, I see no reason why Manning won't throw for 30+ TD's.

You must be really plugged in to NFL front offices. Somehow you've heard that the major stumbling block is a late 1st round draft pick, NOT the $120 million that Mike Wallace is asking for.

Just throwing these numbers out there (without any research): -I'm guessing Decker will be the 16th-25th WR off the board. -I'm guessing Tamme will be the 8th-12th TE off the board. -I'm guessing Manning will be the 5th-10th QB off the board. If you like Decker's/Tamme's respective values, you HAVE TO like Manning's value. Manning won't be learning a new offense. He'll be teaching his system to the guys in Denver. Yes, he's taken a year off. But many reports suggest that his arm strength has been bothering him for years because of his injury. Nobody works harder than Peyton. NOBODY WORKS HARDER THAN PEYTON. He's already installing his offense, and getting his targets up-to-speed with his system. I have no doubts that Manning will be ready come September. I understand people will have reservations about drafting Manning. But it only makes sense that those same people have reservations about his #2 and 3 targets, who arguably lack the talent to be productive without an elite QB.

Just curious - How can you be down on Peyton Manning, and be very high on 2 of his top 3 targets? Do you have faith in Caleb Hanie or something? If Tamme and Decker have big years, D. Thomas should have a big year, and Dreesen can be productive...how in the world can their QB have a down year?

Did you read my whole post? Sounds like Claiborne has some sort of reading disability that prevented him from retaining information that he read. Gotta believe that it's nearly impossible to answer questions that he has to READ. Especially when 1 of the questions was specifically reading comprehension. From my understanding, he has no trouble learning, he just has to learn in a specific manner - from doing and hearing, not reading. Not saying the guy's a genius - just that his Wonderlic score probably isn't the best measurement of his smarts.

Um, my question only had 15 questions But anyways - I've heard that Claiborne was diagnosed with a certain learning disability that prevent him from reading well and digesting the information that he's reading. He can learn, but not through reading a book. He can learn through hearing things and practicing things....In other words, he can learn football (although he may struggle with a playbook). I don't really think this is a big deal for Claiborne.

If that was the case, Doctors wouldn't clear him/advise him to continue playing football. If that was the case, the Denver Broncos wouldn't sign him to a $90 million contract with his 2012 salary fully guaranteed. When you think you've broken your finger, and you go to the Dr's office, and he tells you it's just a jam - who's right? Point is, there's only a very small % of people on this planet qualified to talk about Manning's health on an educated basis. ALL OF THEM ARE SAYING HE'S HEALTHY AND NOT AT FURTHER RISK. What more is there to say?