Alternative Auction Values?

[ICETIME25 0]

I've got three years of auction history to compare against the compiler's values. I've tried all of the scenarios, but can't get something close enought that I modify with minor adjustments. While the Last Player Drafted model is the closest in simulating values in the late rounds, other models better simulate values in the early rounds. It seems like in my league, the first couple of rounds go high, but enough money is retained for the late rounds to keep from paying the league minimum (except for the last round). Obviously, the money has to come from somewhere (given a cap), so it seems like the middle rounds is where the compression occurs.

 

Here's my question, does it make sense to you that I disable the auction feature and use the VBD score to calculate relative value within a particular round. I could project the pool of money that typically goes by round then multiply it by the relative percentage of VBD per player within that round.

 

My second question is will I interfere with the integrity and usability of the model (along with the integration with the draft buddy) if I insert a column within the cheatsheets tab to do this calculation?

 

Thanks...Icetime :cool:

 

[ 07-30-2003: Message edited by: ICETIME25 ]

[Mike MacGregor 21]

Sounds reasonable to me ICETIME, doing those calculations based on expected % to be used each round. How do you know who is going what round though? Just base it on the Compiler rankings? I guess that makes sense. That is what you think they should go for, and if they go for less (because our projections are superior ) then you got a bargain.

 

As for adding a column though, I think this could cause problems. Where everything is, is pretty well defined to make sure Buddy copies it over correctly. I would suggest picking columns off to the right in the Compiler to do the calcs. Or, do them in Buddy. Once you copy stuff over there, it is less finicky.

[ICETIME25 0]

Mike,

 

I wrote a post about the accuracy of projections (and yes...your projections did yield better results than two other subscription sites last year). You are also correct about using my weighting by round to find bargains. Isn't that what auctions are all about? Your tiering concept supports this strategy as well.

 

Awesome idea about using the buddy. I'm just getting oriented to this tool and will give it a try.

 

Keep up the great work. It's a lot more fun analyzing the information than creating the models and crunching the numbers. You've saved me a month of weekends in draft preparation based on previous experience.

 

:cool: