Fantasy Draft analysis - any value or waste of time?

[risberg 0]

Seeing some of the mock drafts pop up already got me thinking about the value of looking at past drafts. I'm a fan of mocks, don't get me wrong, but it's awfully early so I thought of some other exercises we could do.

 

In one redraft league I'm in, for the past two years I've taken the draft at season's end and put in the total points for every player. This allows me to rank every player in regards to where the were picked; for example Larry Johnson last year was the 33rd RB picked but ranked 3rd of the RBs in points - this qualifies as a very good pick. I can then analyze each team's draft and there is a fairly high correlation between good drafts and FFL success.

 

Granted, this would have some limits based on the type of league you are in and the rules. We have mostly the same people in the league so I can see drafting trends and predict future patterns for individuals. This is a redraft league with not too much trading so the teams don't change too much over the course of a season. It is also a 16 team league so the WW isn't a huge player.

 

So, are there any other statistical crazies out there that do this type of thing? Or do you think this is a waste of time?

 

Can looking at past drafts and where the real sleepers were drafted help predict where to look for sleepers next year? Another example - M Mohammed and Nate Burleson were drafted in the 10th round in 2004; last year Santana Moss went 8th and the 11th round had Joey Galloway and Terry Glenn. Should I be looking for a WR around there next year?

 

I would be interested in seeing some other drafts from other (similar) leagues, look at where the best picks are and try to determine who the champion of the league was. Anybody else?

 

Or should I crawl back into my hole full o' stats?

 

[SmartassBoiler 0]

I do my own thing as far as ranking and tiering, but I do pay attention to mocks (closer to my draft date) to get a feel for the average draft position of each player. Once I know my draft position, then I start analyzing the players within 5-6 ADP spots of my position and rank them based on preference. That's how I develop my overall draft strategy.

 

However, I think mocks this early are retarded. Let's wait til the draft and the June 1st cuts/signings for rosters to settle.

[Let Da Big Dog Eat 42]

I absolutely do this. I analyze drafting patterns of other owners in my league. I also keep track of how many RB's, WR's etc have been drafted by each owner during the draft. This helps me predict what positions owners are targeting with their next pick, allowing me to often wait a round on a player I am targeting. This is especially helpful when drafting around the turn. An example is Hassleback. Everyone else had their starting QB so I waited to draft him until the 7th round. He had a nice year and it worked out great.