Do you advocate playing it safe round 1?

[dj88 0]

I'm a firm believer in the "playing it safe" method. Here are my reasons:

 

1) Too many 1st round picks turn out to be complete busts every year. Last year Willis McGahee and Priest Holmes were top 5 picks. They killed a lot of teams single handedly. Other notable busts included Corey Dillon, Daunte Culpepper, Randy Moss, Julius Jones and to some extent Terrell Owens. All of these guys were taken in the 1st round in most 12 teams drafts and none of them performed up to expectation.

 

2) Good teams are usually made in the middle rounds of the draft. If you can build a solid foundation with a safe 1st round pick and your mid round picks pan out you should be a contender. If you draft the boom or bust guys early and they bust you're going to struggle.

 

There's a lot of talk going on here about taking LJ #1 overall. I completely understand it, however I don't agree with it. Yes he was a monster last year. Yes he has huge upside. But he has some questions that would steer me away with #1 overall. Coaching changes. OL defections. Loss of Richardson. That's a lot of changes.

 

Now take Alexander. The only change to his team is the loss of Hutchenson. Same coach. Same scheme. Same fullback. Proven track record. He is without question in my book a safer pick than LJ.

 

How do you guys roll? Are you the gambling type or do you tend to play it safe?

[pacman_fl 0]

Easy answer is safe. I do my research, make my projections, validate the projections aren't creating "reaches" by reviwing other projections, ADP's, receiving almost EVERY post on these boards, watch pre-seaon games to validate each player looks right (any questions I see, I move them down or make a note on my draft sheet about ???'s) and then take the highest rated player from my board at each pick. That's about as safe as you can get. Usually all of these steps weeds out some of the "unsafe" picks. Of course I think the only "safe" picks last year were LT, Alexander, Rudi, Manning and Harrison. By the time it was said and done, most guys either significantly over played their projection or under played them. Just my thoughts.

[Ravens 03 0]

I play it safe.

 

And if you took MaGayHee with a top 5 pick, you deserved what you got.

[Phurfur 70]

You usually don't win a league with your 1st round pick but you can lose it. I play it safe.

[IndyTom 0]

You usually don't win a league with your 1st round pick but you can lose it. I play it safe.

 

I concur. More time should be spent studying rounds 3-10 than 1 and 2.

[Raider 84 29]

I like to take the for sure studs in the first.

[Ravens 03 0]

I concur. More time should be spent studying rounds 3-10 than 1 and 2.

 

Usually the 1st 3-4 rounds are all stars/starters.

 

Then it gets interesting and where you will make or break your year.

That and injuries.

[tabris 1]

LJ is 1 or 2 and definitely won't fall out of the top 3. If he is taken at 1, I wouldn't actually call that a reach. The guy is probably going to average high 20s in carries/game (that is enough to merit top 3).

 

Now someone taking Steve Smith at pick 6 (after Portis/Barber)... that would be a reach! Or, I've seen Ronnie Brown picked at #5. That would also be a reach when proven talent like Barber/Rudi/Edge and Peyton (depending on the league style) are still on the board.

[EaglesInCentral 0]

The safest play after picks 1-3 is probably to trade the pick and get some 2nd and 3rds. The chance of getting a good player would seem to be substantially greater!

[dj88 0]

I play it safe.

 

And if you took MaGayHee with a top 5 pick, you deserved what you got.

Last year I took Owens with my 1st rounder (1.10). Another guy in my league took McGahee at 1.5. Believe it or not Owens was still better than McGahee.

 

For those of you that would/will take LJ above SA, how many more TD's do you expect him to get than SA?