Mike MacGregor

[SteelCurtain61 0]

You responded to my question about 350 and 400 yard bonus for QB's.

I purchased the program, because you are impressive (I don't know what other word to use) after looking over the numbers you came up w/ I don't care if the bonuses are in or not. It was really amazing that you could come up with that info.

 

Also with the help of your program I found that with Def bonus my league gives I may be taking a Def w/ my #3 pick. I was wondering is there a way to double check the way I put the stats in because COMPILER is telling me Bears Def will have 497pts? That can't correct???

Here are all the Def stats for my League.

BFB - Blocked Field Goals (ID/ST/DST) 1 point

BFTD - Blocked Field Goal Touchdown (ID/ST/DST) 6 points

BP - Blocked Punts (ID/ST/DST) 1 point

BPTD - Blocked Punt Touchdown (ID/ST/DST) 6 points

BXP - Blocked Extra Points (ID/ST/DST) 1 point

DFR - Defensive/ST Fumble Recovered (ID/DT/DST) 2 points

DFRTD - Defensive Fumble Recovery TD (ID/DT/DST) 6 points

DPA - Defensive Points Against 0 points

FF - Forced Fumble 1 point

Int - Interceptions 2 points

IntTD - Interception TD 6 points

KRTD - Kick Return TD (ST/DST) 6 points

KRYd - Kick Return Yards (ID/ST/DST) 1 - 100+ KRYds = 1 point for every 20 KRYds

 

PA - Points Against, Total Points Scored

0 - 0 PAs = 50 points

1 - 6 PA = 25 points

7 - 13 PA = 15 points

14 - 20 PA = 8 points

21 - 27 PA = 6 points

 

PRTD - Punt Return TD (ST/DST) 6 points

PRYd - Punt Return Yards (ID/ST/DST) 1 - 100+ PRYds = 1 point for every 20 PRYds

 

SACK - Sack 1 point

SFRTD - Special Team Fumble Recovery for TD 6 points

STTD - Special Teams TD 0 points

STY - Safety 2 points

TK - Tackle (ID/DT/DST) 0 points

YDS - Yards Allowed

0 - 49 YDSs = 50 points

50 - 99 YDSs = 25 points

100 - 149 YDSs = 15 points

150 - 199 YDSs = 6 points

200 - 249 YDSs = 4 points

250 - 299 YDSs = 2 points

 

This is my third year in this money league, with out your help I was 3rd and 4th. This year I'm going to be #1. Thanks for the great program and I will be back every year.

[zhinz 0]

I'm getting 544.7 points for the Bears under that scoring system, actually.

 

The lion's share of the points come in under the points allowed. Those numbers are way higher than any other team defense scoring I've ever seen. 50 points for a shutout?

 

 

Here's the breakdown of points per category for the Bears, based on FFToday Projections:

43 sacks = 43 points

14 FR = 28 points

22 INT return = 44 points

5 DEF TD = 30 points

1 Safety = 2 points

1 Block = 1 point

2 Kick TD = 12 points

1554 Return Yd = 77.7 points

225 points allowed = 248 points

4571 yards allowed = 59 points

TOTAL: 544.7 points

 

With that said, I still wouldn't take them 1st round for several reasons.

 

1. There's no reason to take a team at a pick unless you feel that they won't be there at your next pick. One of the keys to succesful drafting is not to overreach on a player, even one you like a lot. The highest the Bears have gone in any mock draft at antsports.com was in the 5th round.

 

2. The Bears are projected to score a lot of points. But so are all the defenses. The important thing is how many more points than the other defenses they will score.

 

3. Probably the most important reason. Part of the reason why you should wait on kickers and defenses is that they are far less predictable than the other positions. Every year there is a kicker who comes out of nowhere and has a top 10 season. There is also one kicker ranked in the top 10 who ends up struggling for some reason. The same thing with defenses. With defenses, they're projecting what all 11 starters (plus assorted role-player backups) are going to do. One injury, one player not performing as expected, or one unlucky play can throw a wrench into anyone's projections.

[Mike MacGregor 20]

Thanks man. You even spelled my name right, which is a rarity on this and the main FF Today board

 

That's a lot of points, but your league seems to give A LOT for the points against category. How many points did the Bears D score last year in your league?

 

Oh, I see Zac has responded and I agree with all his points. Honestly, I tend not to care what the scoring system is for team defense, I will always exclude them from the overall rankings.

 

I'll run these numbers because I'm interested to see how each team compares to each other in this scoring system.

[SteelCurtain61 0]

I understand what you are saying, and it makes good sense. Here are the top 5 as the COMPILER shows them after I put in the numbers. That’s a 90 point difference from 1st to 5th. (Last year I got 4th place by 10 points and 2nd was only 50 ahead of me)So you can see that 90 points could make a big difference. I still think I should take a D with my 3rd pick. I have the #1 pick so that will make it pick #25 I think the top 3 maybe 4 will go before my pick at #48?? Most of the bonuses this year are new and I feel most people in the league will realize that a D should be picked early?

Chicago Bears 497.7

Pittsburgh Steelers 460.1

Jacksonville Jaguars 448.2

Denver Broncos 411.5

Carolina Panthers 406.9

Thanks to both of you guys for any help and input

 

Last year Bears scored 435 2nd was Panthers w/ 373 then STEELERS w/357

[zhinz 0]

You know what, I misunderstood you. I thought you were saying the #3 overall pick, but your were talking about your 3rd round pick. I've got no problems with that.

 

Every league is different when it comes to stuff like that. My money league gives a bonus to TEs, something like 2 points per reception plus a point every 5 yards receiving. In that system, Antonio Gates is a border-line 1st rounder.

[Mike MacGregor 20]

I got 526.7

 

Rank Tier  Team				  FF Pts
1	1	 Chicago Bears		 526.7
2	2	 Pittsburgh Steelers   485.1
3	2	 Jacksonville Jaguars  474.2
4	3	 Denver Broncos		439.5
5	3	 Carolina Panthers	 431.9
6	3	 Dallas Cowboys		420.7
7	4	 Tampa Bay Buccaneers  417.5
8	4	 Baltimore Ravens	  417.4
9	4	 Indianapolis Colts	413.8
10   4	 Seattle Seahawks	  400.3
11   5	 Washington Redskins   396.5
12   5	 Miami Dolphins		390.5
13   5	 New York Giants	   388.0
14   5	 Cleveland Browns	  387.1
15   5	 San Diego Chargers	385.7

 

One thing I did was make the lower PA range 0 to 1 instead of 0 to 0, since a team can never score 1 point, but it may have in the formula given them slightly less fantasy points.

 

I also thought you meant 3rd overall pick which had me worried. Now given how high this scoring I'm not that surprised I guess a 3rd round pick is showing for the Bears. Still... I personally would be skeptical spending a pick that high on a defense just because they are so unpredictable. I'd be more inclined to do an indepth analysis of the schedule and try to match up a couple D's that are playing poor teams throughout the year and are great late value. If the Bears are going to be close to setting a record for points against again this year though, 3rd round... sure, if you can't get them any later I can see the argument for it.