BirdBradyBobbyOrr 0 Posted August 25, 2006 I'll start out by saying Larry Johnson is phenomenal. I would wait over and over again to watch his SportsCenter highlights last year. He runs like a bigger angry Bo Jackson with the grace of Ricky Watters (a very graceful big back) and the nose for the EndZone like Emmitt or TD. I LOVE HIS GAME. I also believe Larry Johnson should be the #1 Running Back and I believe he will have a monster season. So how can I say he's overrated? Because I continually hear, LJ only started 9 games when he starts 16 next year he'll have such a monster season. It's all talk, it's all hyperbole and pack mentality. He won't crush his numbers from last year because there are only a certain amount of touches any back is going to get. Larry Johnson in 2005 ran the ball 336 times. Larry Johnson also had 33 catches in 2005. That adds up to 369 touches last year. (and more if he had any special teams touches? can anyone tell me if he did?). Let's take a look at the top Running backs for the last few seasons and their total touches 2005 Shaun Alexander 370 rushes and 15 catches for a total of 385 touches 2004 Shaun Alexander 353 rushes and 23 catches for a total of 378 touches 2004 Curtis Martin 371 rushes and 41 catches for a total of 412 touches 2004 Tiki Barber 322 rushes and 52 catches for a total of 374 2003 Priest Holmes 320 rushes and 74 catches for a total of 394 2003 Ladanian Tomlinson 313 rushes and 100 catches for a total of 413 2003 Ahman Green 355 rushes and 50 catches for a total of 405 2000 Marshall Faulk 253 rushes and 81 catches for total of 334 2000 Edgerrin James 387 rushes and 63 catches for a total 450!!!! So if LJ had 369 touches last year he's already pretty close to the number of touches we can expect from a top back. Throw out the low and the high, interestingly both from 2000 and you get a true feel for how many touches the top backs get. Check out 2002 and 2001 and you'll see more of the same. It's just not realistic to think LJ gets even 150% of the stats from last year because no back is going to get 500 touches and most likely he'll make out around 380-390. Do the math divide yards, pts, TD's, whatever you want and divide it by carries, and you'll see he's overhyped in some ways. Do I think he's the best choice at #1. Yes. Do I think LJ is getting 2500 and 35 TD's since he's going to start the full 16 games. If you get an insane offer of keepers, draft picks or whatever the offer is, and they want LJ or #1 pick well you should at least consider your options. And if you have #1 take a second step off the LJ bandwagon and at least consider options there as well. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
www.kyleortonfans.com 0 Posted August 25, 2006 Aren't there like twelve threads on this? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
nicewolf64 0 Posted August 25, 2006 Aren't there like twelve threads on this? You got dissed by a Kyle Orton fan. That just seems wrong on so many levels. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ffdomino 0 Posted August 25, 2006 Because you cannot underrate a #1 pick? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ruphus 0 Posted August 25, 2006 Aren't there like twelve threads on this? you underrated and underestimate the powah of the Larry Johnson side.... story... hoopla... stuff but yeah, this is like # eleventy LJ something rated #1 argue thread about not being #1 but is the #1 even if he's not the #1. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Parja 0 Posted August 25, 2006 Ok, let's do the math like you said instead of just alluding to it and making ballpark assumptions. So we average the total touches for the top guys in recent seasons. That comes out to 394. Now LJ is a young stud and easily the primary threat of the Chiefs' offense, so let's say he gets an even 400 touches. That's an 8% increase over last year. If he can maintain his average from last year, an 8% increase in LJs 2005 stats puts him at 2260 total yards and 23 TDs or 364 fantasy points. I'll take that at #1. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
mtammen 0 Posted August 25, 2006 2004 Curtis Martin 371 rushes and 41 catches for a total of 412 touches How odd that you forgot to metion Martin had the same HC that LJ is going to have this year. 400+ is most likely in store for LJ. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hurricane 0 Posted August 25, 2006 Aren't there like twelve threads on this? Funny, I thought this was going to be another "The Chiefs lost Vermeil/Saunders/Welbourne/Richardson/Roaf and Shields is injured so drop LJ down behind Mike Bell" thread. BirdBrady, you're a little late to the party. This thread would have been pertinent maybe a month ago, but this is pretty much old news. Hardly anyone is continuing to expect LJ to have 2500/25 this year. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BirdBradyBobbyOrr 0 Posted August 25, 2006 Ok, let's do the math like you said instead of just alluding to it and making ballpark assumptions. So we average the total touches for the top guys in recent seasons. That comes out to 394. Now LJ is a young stud and easily the primary threat of the Chiefs' offense, so let's say he gets an even 400 touches. That's an 8% increase over last year. If he can maintain his average from last year, an 8% increase in LJs 2005 stats puts him at 2260 total yards and 23 TDs or 364 fantasy points. I'll take that at #1. Excellent job! And like I said that's only a slight increase, worthy of #1 and one of the best Fantasy seasons in history however it's not 150% increase and it doesn't make him "untradeable". Their is a fair price for LJ or the #1 slot and if you get offered the right deal it might make sense to take it. Sorry about being late to the party guys, I hadn't realized their had been so many about this. Just tried to open someeyes. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
escobante 0 Posted August 25, 2006 Excellent job! And like I said that's only a slight increase, worthy of #1 and one of the best Fantasy seasons in history however it's not 150% increase and it doesn't make him "untradeable". Their is a fair price for LJ or the #1 slot and if you get offered the right deal it might make sense to take it. Sorry about being late to the party guys, I hadn't realized their had been so many about this. Just tried to open someeyes. so you expect him to have one of the best fantasy seasons ever, AND you feel he is overrated. who are these people that think he was going to get 3000 total yardss and 40 TDs? i think you are inventing expectations. people who put him #1 or in the top 3 think he might have a chance at 2000 yards, which is huge by anyones standards. no one thinks he is for sure to get 2000. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JT 137 Posted August 25, 2006 You mean this isn't about Philly's TE? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GobbleDog 824 Posted August 26, 2006 I just found out last night....... I have the #1 pick in my draft!!! For the past 24 hours it's all I can think about! This morning, I looked up Larry Johnson's 2005 stats for the first time ever. I had remembered that he did well last year, but those are some ABSOLUTELY UNBELIEVABLE stats! All 9 starts broke 100 yards and a total of 17 TDs during that time. Just INSANE fantasy stats! I had no idea he did that well. That's it - I'm sold. I'm taking Larry Johnson with my #1 pick. Yeah, he lost Willy Roaf. Whatever. I admit, last night I was leaning towards Thomlinson since my drafting style is usually "proven stats over projected stats". But that was before I found how good Larry Johnson was. Thow in LT's wear and Pillip River's inexperience and the debate is over. Johnson is clearly the best pick. I can now start focusing on what to do with my next picks. Life is good. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
