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Lizard1

*x*x* HOOPS WAGERING *x*x*

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Is anyone watching the LSU-Kentucky game? Did the announcer just say that Kentucky needs to get their sh1t together? :blink:

 

No I was following the Texas /Texas Tech game hoping to get a halftime spread, but it looks like a blowout in Texas's favor early on. Looking at this score, maybe Kentucky should get their sh1t together.

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Anyone making a call on this Airforce at UNLV game? It's UNLV -3 or Air Force +3

 

Anyone have a feel for this game ?

 

 

Edit: Going with UNLV moneyline 1 unit.... Expensive, but Air Force, I've been reading, doesn't play very good defense on the road. Seems like UNLV -3 wouldn't be a bad bet, but I hate laying the lumber.

 

Edit: Adding Kentucky -7 1 unit at the half even though Kentucky is only 2-6 when losing at the half this year. Come on, Kentucky ended that half on an 18-3 run. I'd say they figured things out. So Kentucky has to win by 7 to collect or win by 6 to push.

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ncaa 93-68-1

 

georgia +3.5 LOSER

tulane +6.5 LOSER

ark -3 LOSER

central fl -7 LOSER

evansville +5.5 WINNER

iowa st -11 LOSER

wyoming -5.5 WINNER

s carolina +19 WINNER

st louie -5 WINNER

A&M -4.5 WINNER

BYU -11.5 LOSER

 

not being very picky tonight - will prob end up paying for it

 

gla

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GIA - best of luck to you even though i'm choosing the other side of the fence. i've always had better luck riding a shooting star rather than try an catch a falling one...

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GIA - best of luck to you even though i'm choosing the other side of the fence. i've always had better luck riding a shooting star rather than try an catch a falling one...

 

A&M looks good early up 19-11. My question is, where is Jameson?? Boggan and Curry have to get it going if they think they can come from behind and pull this off.

 

Good luck Lizard on all your bet selections.

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This is the first time that I have posted my picks in this thread. I have been following you guys for a while and would like to contribute.

 

2/22 Games

 

 

Davidson -12.5 - Winner

 

Davidson can wrap up the Southern Conference #1 seed with a win tonight against Furman. In their last game, Davidson won by 8 at Furman. Furman has come off some tough losses lately, losing 2 of their last 3 by a combined 5 points. In their most recent game, they lost in OT at home against a pretty good Charleston team. I figure that they will be hanging their heads in this game, with little to play for as they hover in the middle of the pack in the conference. Davidson, meanwhile has been cleaning house, winning 9 of 10 (with their only loss against a good Appalachian State team), and covering in 7 of those games. Furthermore, Furman relies heavily on the 3-point shot, and in the past 5 games, they have been shooting terribly (34%). The trends also point to Davidson in this game. Furman is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 as a road dog, and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a road dog of 7.0-13. Meanwhile, Davidson is 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games versus a team with a winning SU record, and 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games as a favorite. All reasons to go with Davidson.

 

 

Hofstra -12.5 - Loser

 

Hofstra is a bubble team for the NCAA tournament playing against a terrible UNC-Wilmington team (6-20 overall). UNC-Wil. struggles against quality teams, especially on the road. Hofstra can simply not afford to lose this game, or they can basically flush their NCAA tournament hopes down the toilet (unless they are banking on winning the conference tournament). In their last meeting, Hofstra won by 11 points at UNC-Wil. in OT nonetheless. In the past 5 games, UNC-Wil. has been terrible, even losing to a 5-24 Delaware team. Hofstra comes off a tough non-conference win against Holy Cross. Look for Hofstra to crush UNC-Wil. in this game, doing nothing to damage their NCAA prospects.

 

 

Duke -1.5 - Winner

 

They have gotten their act back together. Had a big win @ BC. I see another win here at Clemson.

 

 

Utah State +5.5 - Winner

 

Everyone is picking undefeated-at-home New Mexico State. According to Covers.com, about 75% are going with the home favorite. I think Utah State is good enough to keep this a 1-2 point game if they lose. They might even win.

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Good analysis Teejay. I like both teams you picked to win outright, but I always find myself having a tough time laying the lumber at the beginning of a game. But, I might wait on these games until half time just to see if I can get a better deal. Another option I might employ with your picks, but I'm completely unsure of what I'm taking right now, is to throw a 3 team 7 point teaser together. Maybe take Duke +5.5, Davidson -5.5, and Hofstra -5.5..............just hashing things out right now...

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Good analysis Teejay. I like both teams you picked to win outright, but I always find myself having a tough time laying the lumber at the beginning of a game. But, I might wait on these games until half time just to see if I can get a better deal. Another option I might employ with your picks, but I'm completely unsure of what I'm taking right now, is to throw a 3 team 7 point teaser together. Maybe take Duke +5.5, Davidson -5.5, and Hofstra -5.5..............just hashing things out right now...

 

Too late ;)

 

I already took Davidson and Hofstra on a 2-team parlay. We'll see what happens. Usually, I like to make my 7:00 bets separate from my 9:00 bets. Just a preference...

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Too late ;)

 

I already took Davidson and Hofstra on a 2-team parlay. We'll see what happens. Usually, I like to make my 7:00 bets separate from my 9:00 bets. Just a preference...

 

I hear what you're saying about keeping 7:00 plays separate from later rounds. I made a 3 team parlay involving Davidson -13(thanks), NCWilmington +12 (Because Hofstra has screwed me over alot this year.), Memphis -22.5 ( Gonzaga beat Rice by 38 earlier in the season).

 

 

Heavy stuff is later...

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I hear what you're saying about keeping 7:00 plays separate from later rounds. I made a 3 team parlay involving Davidson -13(thanks), NCWilmington +12 (Because Hofstra has screwed me over alot this year.), Memphis -22.5 ( Gonzaga beat Rice by 38 earlier in the season).

Heavy stuff is later...

 

Wow, both Davidson and Hofstra apparently don't want to make the NCAA tournament. What a pathetic showing in the 1st half for both teams against CLEARLY inferior competition. I will definitely be checking the halftime lines.

 

 

Edit: I'm not getting halftime lines for either game :thumbsup:. Looks like these might be a wash.

 

 

Anyway, I'm parlaying Duke at -1.5 and Utah State at +5.5 for the 9 PM games.

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I hear what you're saying about keeping 7:00 plays separate from later rounds. I made a 3 team parlay involving Davidson -13(thanks), NCWilmington +12 (Because Hofstra has screwed me over alot this year.), Memphis -22.5 ( Gonzaga beat Rice by 38 earlier in the season).

Heavy stuff is later...

 

Nice win! :cry:

 

Looks like Duke is taking care of business. Unfortunately, so is New Mexico State (should have went with the consensus). Luckily, I made a big single bet on Duke right before tipoff, which may allow me to end up ahead tonight.

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Nice win! :cry:

 

Looks like Duke is taking care of business. Unfortunately, so is New Mexico State (should have went with the consensus). Luckily, I made a big single bet on Duke right before tipoff, which may allow me to end up ahead tonight.

 

good job, I'm getting torched because I took Duke & Butler moneyline..............the Butler moneyline is supposed to be the easy part of the bet..............

 

 

I might have to play a late one, if Butler can't get the job done at home. I'm looking at Washington State at Oregon. Oregon at home sounds pretty good to me. I'm not sure if Washington State can win here. If anyone has any thoughts on this game, let's hear them.

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good job, I'm getting torched because I took Duke & Butler moneyline..............the Butler moneyline is supposed to be the easy part of the bet..............

I might have to play a late one, if Butler can't get the job done at home. I'm looking at Washington State at Oregon. Oregon at home sounds pretty good to me. I'm not sure if Washington State can win here. If anyone has any thoughts on this game, let's hear them.

 

I'm actually leaning toward taking Wash. State on the moneyline. Since their last matchup, Oregon has been on a freefall, losing 3 in a row and 5 out of 6. 2 of those losses were at home against Arizona and Arizone State. Conversely, Wash. State has won 5 in a row since that loss, including a big road win against Washington. You might be right. This might be Oregon's bounce back game, especially coming home after having 4 of 6 on the road. However, as a road dog this year, Wash. State is 5-1 ATS. I think I'm going to take Wash. State on the moneyline at +130. I think the moneyline payout justifies the bet, over taking the 2.5 spread at -115.

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Just a heads up on the UCLA game. They're losing on their home court right now and there might be a half-time line that is reasonable.

 

Yeh, I might play the UCLA halftime line, especially if I don't get the backdoor cover with Utah State. I'm staying away from the Wash. State - Oregon game as well.

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WOW! Duke had to withstand an onslaught from Clemson. I thought they were going to lay an egg at the end there with Paulus seemingly throwing the ball to Clemson on every possession. And what a backdoor cover with Utah State. Ended up being a pretty profitable night.

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Friday's games have teams from the Ivy league playing and the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference playing.

 

Annually, the Ivy league does not have conference championships like other conferences, so the winner of the regular season with the best record or best conference record gets the automatic bid to the NCAA tournament. I thought this might be important trying to figure out tonight's games since it means Pennsylvania and Yale both need to win to keep pace with each other. I would guess next Friday's game between Yale and Pennsylvania would most likely break the tie.

 

Tonight's spreads:

 

Columbia @ Brown -5

Princeton @ Dartmouth +1.5

Pennsylvania @ Harvard +10

Cornell @ Yale -7

Rider @ Canisius -3

St. Peter's @ Iona -3

Loyola Maryland @ Niagara -5 ( I like Niagara with home court here. Both 11-5 in conference play.)

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Not sure of Yale even though they're at home. Cornell Big Red beat them last time out and it wasn't that long ago, though only by one point.

 

 

I'm going with a 2 team moneyline parlay: Pennsylvania and Niagara (Niagara seems to get a lift at home.)

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Not sure of Yale even though they're at home. Cornell Big Red beat them last time out and it wasn't that long ago, though only by one point.

I'm going with a 2 team moneyline parlay: Pennsylvania and Niagara (Niagara seems to get a lift at home.)

 

Sorry GridIron, I've been busy with work all day. BIG day tomorrow, though. I will post my picks late tonight.

 

ETA: I will unfortunately be travelling all day again. Probably better for me anyway. After first glance, I like NONE of the early lines today. The cappers all looked about dead-on. I usually only like to play lines that look like glaring mistakes. One that I will be looking at tonight is that Nevada-Boise State game. I'll update later.

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Jumping back in today, after a long break. I lost track of my record, so I'm starting over. I was over .500 and somewhere near even in units, so no big deal.

 

Will add as I go along...

 

College hoops YTD: 0-0; +0 units

 

Saturday

 

For 12 units

Hawaii (-5.5) WINNER

 

For 8 units

Portland St (-5.5) WINNER

Florida International (+12.5) LOSER

Dayton (+5.5) LOSER

San Diego St (-3) WINNER

Jacksonville St (-4) WINNER

 

 

For 4 units

Towson St (+3) LOSER

Miami Fla (+13) LOSER

Tex Tech (-6) LOSER

Georgetown (-7) WINNER

William & Mary (+7.5) WINNER

Michigan (-1) WINNER

Ohio U (-3) LOSER

UCLA (-12) WINNER

Rice (-5.5) WINNER

Illinois Chic (+9) WINNER

 

 

For 2 units

Marist 1st H (-3) LOSER

DePaul (-11.5) WINNER

NC State (+8) LOSER

Davidson 1st H (-9.5) WINNER

Davidson (-16) WINNER

Mississippi St (+3) LOSER

Mississippi (-2) LOSER

 

Parlay: .8066 to win 483.66 units LOSER

Milw (+6.5)

Indiana (+6.5)

NM St (-7)

 

 

Good luck to all

 

Possible additions: Cal, Milw (NBA), Indiana, NM St, Hawaii

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Hawaii is my 12 unit bet for tonight...

 

Basically, SJ St is on a trip, traveling home, to face a team that has been grounded there for over a week. Beyond that, SJ St went to Hawaii and got killed. Hawaii in a blow out tonight.

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Hawaii is my 12 unit bet for tonight...

 

Basically, SJ St is on a trip, traveling home, to face a team that has been grounded there for over a week. Beyond that, SJ St went to Hawaii and got killed. Hawaii in a blow out tonight.

 

Wait a second. I'm taking Hawaii bigtime too, but how did they stay in SoCal for an entire week? I know they played San Jose State one week ago. But, don't they have to go back for class?

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Wait a second. I'm taking Hawaii bigtime too, but how did they stay in SoCal for an entire week? I know they played San Jose State one week ago. But, don't they have to go back for class?

 

Sorry I didn't get back to you. I passed out from drinking. Hawaii stayed in location for this game for over a week. San Jose St was traveling previous to this game.

 

Hawaii wins by 12!!!!! :banana:

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Sorry I didn't get back to you. I passed out from drinking. Hawaii stayed in location for this game for over a week. San Jose St was traveling previous to this game.

 

Hawaii wins by 12!!!!! :dunno:

 

:wub: :banana: :(

 

Tomorrow's picks coming up soon. Also, phillybear, do you know what the hell is going on in Lost?

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Jumping back in today, after a long break. I lost track of my record, so I'm starting over. I was over .500 and somewhere near even in units, so no big deal.

 

Will add as I go along...

 

College hoops YTD: 0-0; +0 units

 

Saturday

 

For 12 units

Hawaii (-5.5) WINNER

 

For 8 units

Portland St (-5.5) WINNER

Florida International (+12.5) LOSER

Dayton (+5.5) LOSER

San Diego St (-3) WINNER

Jacksonville St (-4) WINNER

For 4 units

Towson St (+3) LOSER

Miami Fla (+13) LOSER

Tex Tech (-6) LOSER

Georgetown (-7) WINNER

William & Mary (+7.5) WINNER

Michigan (-1) WINNER

Ohio U (-3) LOSER

UCLA (-12) WINNER

Rice (-5.5) WINNER

Illinois Chic (+9) WINNER

For 2 units

Marist 1st H (-3) LOSER

DePaul (-11.5) WINNER

NC State (+8) LOSER

Davidson 1st H (-9.5) WINNER

Davidson (-16) WINNER

Mississippi St (+3) LOSER

Mississippi (-2) LOSER

 

Parlay: .8066 to win 483.66 units LOSER

Milw (+6.5)

Indiana (+6.5)

NM St (-7)

Good luck to all

 

Possible additions: Cal, Milw (NBA), Indiana, NM St, Hawaii

 

As far as my drunken logic can tell me...

 

13-11; +21.2 units.

:banana: :dunno: :wub:

 

 

Also, phillybear, do you know what the hell is going on in Lost?

 

I want to rewatch the episode, before making any comments. I'll get back to you tomorrow, hopefully.

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Also, it's kind of weird, how I rely on this Hawaii school for a lot of my big bets in sports. I hope those kids don't know how much pressure they are under.

 

Oh, well. I need to start looking at tomorrow's card. Nice day overall. Can't complain.

 

I'll finish off the rest of my poured out drinks, and pass out again. :thumbsup:

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5-3 ATS

1-0 O/U

 

2/25 Games

 

Loyola-Maryland Pick Em - Winner

 

Loy-Mar. is facing a Canisius team that is coming off 7 straight losses, including 3 at home. In their previous game this season, Loy-Mar. won 77-74 at Loy-Mar. They were 6.5 point favorites and did not cover. I like Loy-Mar. in this game for several reasons. First, they are 10-1-1 ATS on the road this year (3 games they played in did not have lines). Second, when a home team is favored by a large spread like 6.5 points, and does not cover, that is usually a tell-tale sign that they underestimated their opponent. On the road, I like Loy-Mar. to be completely focused and ready to use their superior talent to put away Canisius. Also, in their previous meeting, Loy-Mar. was 56% from the free throw line (10-18). They are averaging 71% from the line this year. Factoring out this anomoly, Loy-Mar. would probably have covered. In their last 5 games, Canisius is giving up an average of almost 86 points, including a 50% FG%, and 46% behind the arc. While Canisius is averaging 71 points on offense, it comes at a rather mediocre 40% FG% and 35% behind the arc. Loy-Mar. is coming off a tough loss at Niagra (by 2 points), who is 2nd place in the conference and a pretty good team. Meanwhile, Canisius has been getting blown out against mediocre competition at home and on the road. Overall, Canisius is a pretty bad team at 11-17. Loy-Mar. is 16-12, and a pretty decent road team (8-7). I consider this game to almost be a freebee. Capitalize on this mistake by the cappers, and bet Loy-Mar. big.

 

 

Memphis -18 - Loser

 

Wow, can the cappers make a home line big enough for Memphis? I don't think so. They have been absolutely clobbering Conference USA teams at home (and on the road for that matter). Memphis absolutely dismantled Rice in their game on Thurs., a team that is currently 4th in Conf. USA. Now, the Tigers get to feast on Houston, who they beat 89-79 in their previous meeting at Houston (Memphis was an 8 point favorite). In that game, Memphis shot 60% from the field, putting up points whenever they wanted to. Houston plays somewhat like Rice, depending on one major scorer (Rob McKiver - scored 27 points in their previous meeting). If Memphis can shut him down, even somewhat, they will win by 30. If you have been watching Memphis' games lately, their defense has been absolutely stifling. They are creating a ton of turnovers, which lead to easy break points. They go on multiple 5-8 point runs almost every game. It's pretty ridiculous to watch how athletic they are. One of the most entertaining teams in the country. That being said, there is nothing Houston can do to slow this team down. With Florida losing today, either Ohio State or Wisconsin losing on Sunday, and this game being nationally televised, Memphis is going to run Houston into the ground. This one will be ugly by halftime. Considering these factors, Memphis is surely eyeing a #1 seed in the NCAA tournament, if they weren't already before. They are facing crappy teams so they need to win every game by 25-30 points. Look for this game to be much the same. I see Memphis in an absolute route.

 

A pretty entertaining, yet honest quote from the Houston coach: "There's no weakness on that team — at least no predicted weakness," said Penders of the Tigers (24-3, 13-0). "You always look for something in the other team that you might be able to take advantage of. But they're quicker than we are, they're bigger than we are, they shoot better than we do and they're deeper than we are. So you just have to hope that they have an off game and you're having a great game."

 

 

Toledo/Western Michigan OVER 142 - Winner

 

In their past meeting, these two teams combined for 148 points, at Toledo. Additionally, in recent games, both teams have been on fire, with Toledo averaging 70 ppg in their last 5, and W. Mich. 77 ppg. The common theme with both of these teams? No defense. Plus, Toledo hoists up TONS of shots per game (In their last 3 - 65, 59, 58) Combine that with W. Mich.'s shooting touch in the past 5 (47% FG, 40% 3P, 74% FT) and you have a recipe for a good ole fashioned shootout. Another important stat to look at when predicting O/Us is the total point amount a team averages Home/Away versus their OVERALL average (both home and away). At home, W. Mich averages 78 ppg, almost 7 points more than their OVERALL average. On the road, Toledo averages 71 ppg, 2 points more than their OVERALL average. The fact that W. Mich. is 9-1-0 O/U at home this year is just icing on the cake. Look for these two teams to combine for 150+ in this game.

 

 

Louisville Pick Em - Winner

 

Didn't look at this one very closely. I'm making this bet because of the way both teams have been playing in the last 3 and the fact that Louisville is great at covering on the road, as all the trends point to.

 

 

Fairfield -3.5 - Loser

 

Fairfield sucks, but not nearly as much as St. Peter's. Fairfield is great ATS in their H2H matchups. Don't have much more to say about this game.

 

 

North Carolina ML

 

-165 on the moneyline. Not great odds, but I feel like 3.5 is too much to be laying in this game. I like Carolina to stop this insane run that Maryland has been having.

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3-1 ATS

 

Loyola-Maryland -2

 

Loy-Mar. is facing a Canisius team that is coming off 7 straight losses, including 3 at home. In their previous game this season, Loy-Mar. won 77-74 at Loy-Mar. They were 6.5 point favorites and did not cover. I like Loy-Mar. in this game for several reasons. First, they are 10-1-1 ATS on the road this year (3 games they played in did not have lines). Second, when a home team is favored by a large spread like 6.5 points, and does not cover, that is usually a tell-tale sign that they underestimated their opponent. On the road, I like Loy-Mar. to be completely focused and ready to use their superior talent to put away Canisius. Also, in their previous meeting, Loy-Mar. was 56% from the free throw line (10-18). They are averaging 71% from the line this year. Factoring in this anomoly, Loy-Mar. would probably have covered. In their last 5 games, Canisius is giving up an average of almost 86 points, including a 50% FG%, and 46% behind the arc. While Canisius is averaging 71 points on offense, it comes at a rather mediocre 40% FG% and 35% behind the arc. Loy-Mar. is coming off a tough loss at Niagra (by 2 points), who is 2nd place in the conference and a pretty good team. Meanwhile, Canisius has been getting blown out against mediocre competition at home and on the road. Overall, Canisius is a pretty bad team at 11-17. Loy-Mar. is 16-12, and a pretty decent road team (8-7). I consider this game to almost be a freebee. Capitalize on this mistake by the cappers, and bet Loy-Mar. big.

 

Nice insight. I completely agree. The MAAC is a weird conference, but I think this is a decent play.

 

Also, Loy MD has been good to me all year long. This is potentially a 12 unit play for me.

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Reset: Overall College YTD: 13-11; +21.2 units.

 

Will add as I go along...

 

Sunday

 

For 12 units

Loyola Md (-1.5) WINNER

 

For 8 units

Fairfield (-3.5) LOSER

Montana St (PK) LOSER

Maryland (+3) WINNER

 

For 4 units

U Conn (-1) LOSER

Rider (+7.5) LOSER

Western Michigan (-3) LOSER

Wisconsin (+4.5) WINNER

Arizona St (+6) WINNER

 

For 2 units

Ball St (+1) LOSER

Northern Ill (+4.5) LOSER

Duke (-8) WINNER

Manhattan (-8) LOSER

 

Good luck to all.

 

Weird line move. U Conn is now favored, despite 81% of action on Louisville. Fishy.

 

Summary: 5-8; -7.4 units

Overall College hoops YTD: 18-19; +13.8 units

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Philly, I got Loy-Mary as a Pick Em on Sportsbook. Unbelieveable.

 

Louisville took care of business, even with Padgett having little impact. Pretty impressive win again on the road today.

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Philly, I SWEATED that 2nd half in the Loy-Md. game. Terrible shooting for L-Md. almost cost them. But nonetheless, <_< :rolleyes: :bench:

 

Loyola jumped out to a big lead, then threw it away. When they got down 8 points, I almost wrote off the game. Close, but I'll take it.

 

Like yesterday, I got off to a slow start today. Hopefully I can finish strong.

 

Added Fairfield. They need this game for a 1st round bye in their conference tourney.

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Loyola jumped out to a big lead, then threw it away. When they got down 8 points, I almost wrote off the game. Close, but I'll take it.

 

Like yesterday, I got off to a slow start today. Hopefully I can finish strong.

 

Added Fairfield. They need this game for a 1st round bye in their conference tourney.

 

Yeh, I added Fairfield too. I'm also taking UNC in the 5:30 game - analysis in a couple minutes. Philly, what reasons are leading you to take Maryland?

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Philly, what reasons are leading you to take Maryland?

 

Maryland 10-2 ATS at home, 1-0 SU and ATS as a home dog, and is just drilling teams the last few games. They are playing at their peak right now. I think they pull the upset.

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