I love fantasy football

[karmarooster 0]

i just wanted to say how much i enjoy it. there was a troll earlier this week complaining that fantasy football is ALL luck... i know there is a great deal of luck, but i know that hard work pays dividends. i know "team management questions don't belong"... etc etc, but i'll share with you part of my story... and then i'd like some advice from those of you who consider yourselves top-rate fantasy managers.

 

i started playing fantasy during my fraternity days in college. my first draft was 5 years ago. i landed the first overall selection in our 16 team re-draft frat league, and let me tell you my first three draft picks ever:

 

1. Priest Holmes

2. Derrick Mason

3. Chad Pennington

 

LOL. this was the year after priest scored 27 touchdowns to set the record before sean alexander and LT broke it... Holmes played in 8 games before injuring his knee. derrick mason played with the titans and had over 100 catches that year, and pennington was coming off leading the league in completion percentage. however, its safe to say i had NO idea of "value based drafting." i was able to pick up reuben droughns when holmes went down, and made the playoffs, but lost.

 

for several years, i stayed at about that level... i would read a magazine draft guide during the summer and finish somewhere in the middle of the pack. last year, i joined my first $ league for a reasonable amount of money - around $100... the frat league was $10 per team. But i didn't up my game... i didn't prepare any differently other than reading some summer mags. let me give you an idea of my team and it will be clear why i finished in the bottom of the league:

 

picking from the 12spot in a 12 team redraft, my fist two picks were Laurence Maroney and Travis Henry. Ouch. to back them up, my one and only backup RB, was Jerious Norwood. Double ouch. i didn't help that andrew johnson and javon walker (with denver) suffered major injuries. Sure i got unlucky, but i didn't have any skill, either. i was still a casual fantasy player.

 

before this season, i got serious. i participated in dozens of mockdrafts and read everything i could find on this website, its forums, and many other outlets, and paid careful attention to the preseason. i upped my game. here are the keys to my redraft team this year:

 

-while many people questioned this year the relevance of RBs in the first 2 or 3 rounds, i stuck with it because of what i learned last year. depth at RB is crucial.

-i took the advice of many on this board in order to evaluate the QB position. i seriously considered drafting brees in the 3rd round, but instead took Kurt warner in the 11th. it's safe to say that warner was infinitely more valuable given his draft position... despite the fact that Brees has a 5 point lead in our scoring format after 10 weeks.

-i drafted only 4 WRs, 3 starters and 1 backup. i didn't make great choices, but i think the strategy is legit. maybe a 2nd backup would be good, but thats the max.

-i drafted 8 RBs, including 3 late selections... and was lucky enough to land CJ4.24 and Tim Hightower

 

however there were some things i didn't learn, despite the advice of the board.

-i drafted both Selvin Young and Andre Hall in the 6th and 15th rounds. however i quickly realized my error and dropped both... it didn't hurt me because i had stocked up. now i'll never draft a denver RB as long as shanny is in town.

-i took a TE too early, in the 8th round. and to make it worse, my pick, jeremy shockey, turned out to be a bust. my waiver wire selection, greg olsen has far outperformed him.

-i drafted the wrong type of WRs for a PPR league... big play, TD guys who are inconsistent.

 

because of the extra effort i put into preparation, i'm at 8-2 so far this season. last year around this time, i was 2-8. i have gotten a bit lucky, as well.... i'm 3rd so far in Points forced, but i'm dead last in points allowed... meaning i've played the softest schedule in the league.

----------------

 

So i want to ask you experts, those of you who out-prepare most everyone else in your league: how do i take the next step? the articles on this site, such as WR Production Efficiency have some great information. what else can i do?

 

for example, this summer, i posted on a topic about TE Kellen Winslow. he was such an intriguing target in a PPR because he had so many receptions, and i figured he was golden for a PPR league. but someone very knowledgeable replied with some stats that i had never considered... something like receptions per TD... Winslow had a TD for roughly every 11 catches, while someone like cooley had a TD for every 6-10 catches (this is from my memory, so not accurate). where do you get stats like this? do you compile them yourselves? this is the 'next level' stuff i'm talking about. when considering this information, i realized that Winslow wasn't worth his draft position, if he was only going to perform better than your average TE by about 1-2 points per game spread out over 16 games. now, i know winslow has had some health problems this year, and that may or may not have been predictable in august. but what i'm talking about is the thought process behind it.

 

thanks in advance, and congrats to those of you who read this because it was ridiculously long. and if you want any more info, let me know and i'll update you with my team/draft. and please realize, i'm not trying to beat my chest here with a 'look at me' thread, even if i am better this year... instead i want to get better. and i'm certainly open to criticism because that's how you get better.

[nflocd 0]

Here's a good stat tool that you can use to differentiate between how good a matchup is for WR #1 vs. WR #2 vs. other WR:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef

[Gepetto 1,318]

I get a step-up on the competition just by watching the players play. I look for things like "burst" and/or "explosivenss" especially for running backs. For QBs besides the skills that I actually view, I also check passer rating, completion percentage, yards passing per game (use yahoo statistics). For WRs, I obviously have seen them play and I like players that are fast, tall, and strong preferably as they seem more consistent, e.g. Brandon Marshall - he's got a special talent of turning on a dime after he catches the ball and getting up field, that's an important unique talent that helps him excel. Cutler has a strong arm and poise and immediatley as a rookie began throwing for 2 TDs per game and showing off that arm. I drafted Michael Turner in the 3rd round this year, and last year took Adrian Peterson in the 3rd round, and F. Gore in the 6th the year before that. I like to draft younger players. I try to get 2 top RBs and 1 top WR in the 1st 3 rounds. I always try to get a top QB, someone I feel can throw for an average of 250 or more yards per game and 2 TDs or more per game. I try to get a TE that has proven to be able to catch at least 80 balls for at least 900 yards. Sometimes this means drafting a TE and QB in rounds 4 & 5. I can often wait on QB though and pick a top 3 QB: Kurt Warner & Cutler this year, and Romo in both leagues last year, Vick the year before that, and Palmer the year before that. Then I try to fill my roster with the best available WRs in rounds 6 & 7 and then focus on RBs and try to get a good backup QB or 2. I think drafting a great WR2 is okay if you can find a gem or two in rounds 4-7. I would make sure you are confident about the 2 RBs you draft in round 1 and round 3. Do not go by some list or mock draft. If I don't like a RB that gets drafted in round 1 or 2 or even round 3 in preseason drafts/rankings, I might devalue them all the way down to say round 6 or even later knowing I will have no chance to get them. If it's a ppr league be sure to look at past stats that include ppr and always look at past performances on a fantasy points per game basis too. Hope that helps. I probably shouldn't have said all that since I play in an fftoday geek league. Oh well. They can't read my mind on the players I like, and I never give out much information on specific players I like prior to our draft.

[Cstriker 2]

Good post. I am looking forward to seeing how this thread develops. Thank you for that link nflocd.

[madd futher mucker 36]

Fantasy Football is a lot like playing no-limit holdem poker.....yes, there IS a lot of luck involved, but in the long run the better players will win MUCH more often. And like poker, the best players read everything they can find about it and then play millions of hands; similarly, reading is critical to fantasy football, but there is no substitute to actually seeing players in action. i used to think that watching pre-season was a waste, but my advice is to watch, especially the pre-season games. I picked up Chris Johnson in two keeper leagues and passed on D Mac because my EYES told me CJ2 was the 'real deal', not D Mac or Felix Jones. But I also devote about an hour a nite to fantasy football (often while I'm playing low-stakes internet poker), which really works out to about 15 min per my 4 leagues.

 

In another post I layed out my weekly 'ritual' which I copied and pasted here:

 

Daily:

1. Read Rotoworld.com Latest NFL Player News.

2. Read (skim) all daily articles indexed from Fantasysportscentral.com Fantasy Football Daily Planner - all the top articles written for the week from multilpe internet sources are captured there. I especially like Pigskin Addiction stat projections because they come out first (usually Tuesday), Fantasy Sharks weekly Projections (Wednesday), Bruno Boys weekly ranking (by position) and several others that have not only the ranking, but their REASONS for ranking them where they are.

3. Read (skim) Footballguys.com 'Shark Pool' Forum for topics of interest. Best message board by far IMO. Sorry, Mike.

4. Read FFToday.com Forum for topics of interest.

 

Later in the week:

1. Consult Fantasysportscentral.com Average Weekly Cheatsheet which, as mentioned above, averages weekly cheat sheets from 10 Fantasy sites. You can also exclude certain sites from the averages to get re-averages without the excluded sites. Awesome tool.

2. Listen to all Lammey/Bloom podcasts from footballguys.com

 

Gameday:

1. 11 am central - Skim KFFL.com Breaking News for actives/inactives by team announced an hour before game-time.

2. Get any late updates from Footballguys Shark Pool Forum.

 

During the games:

1. Monitor the Injury Report Thread from the Shark Pool Forum.

2. Monitor the Game Center for all games in progress at NFLcom.

3. Switch between chanels for all games on TV in my area - I don't buy The Sports package from my cable company.

 

If you do even half of this stuff, you almost can't help being one of the top competitors in your league.

[p.man 7]

I could be wrong but... Karma, it sounds to me like you are "IN A GOOD WAY" a bit worried. Meaning now that you have a winning record you are a bit concerned about making the wrong start decisions.

You want to end up as a Fantasy Bowl winner and don't want to make any mistakes along the way trying to get there.

Just keep doing what you've been doing, go with your gut, and you will end up at the next level.

Start your studs and play the matchups as you see fit and don't stress so much. It will all work itself out.

 

Good Luck!

[karmarooster 0]

thanks to everyone for your replies, and thanks for the weblink... that is some seriously hardcore statistical analysis and exactly the type of stuff i was looking for. this thread could diverge in one of two ways: resources for in depth statistical analysis, and general draft meta-strategy.

 

 

as to the other replies, i don't want you to think i am brushing aside your advice, i just hope you understand i am no longer a novice... i know the whole check your players, make sure they are playing, be aware of injuries around the league to take advantage of backups, etc type stuff. i do all that, as well as study the box score from every game each week. maybe this will help you understand what i'm talking about....

 

 

i dug up the post that i mentioned about kellen winslow. you can find it here:

 

http://www.fftodayforums.com/forum/index.p...=318838&hl=

 

this is the reply that was of particular interest to me:

 

the hate is due to his horrid TD counts. he has a career rec/TD count of 22.0 [8career TDs on 176 career recs].

 

the other tight ends look like tomlinson next to him:

 

[dallas clark 7.2, gates 7.9, walls 8.3, cooley 8.6, crumpler 9.0, gonzo 12.4, sharpe 13.1]

 

 

this is the kind of stuff i'm talking about... it goes beyond being aware or injuries, matchup projections from this site or any other, etc.

 

 

as an aside, talking draft strategy, it's almost to the point where i think it may be feasible to draft TE, Defense, and K with your last three picks. any thoughts on that? and to add to the meta-strategy ideas that i learned from this site during the summer: never draft a backup kicker, defense, or tight end.... although now on my team i have been carrying shockey and olsen. i was expecting shockey to come back and get his chuck of drew brees' 300-400 yards per game... to no avail. i'm likely going to drop him this week.

[Gepetto 1,318]

I've been happy with Kellen Winslow. He's ranked the 3rd Tight End in points per game in my ppr league.

 

15.24 Tony Gonzalez

14.30 Antonio Gates

12.57 Kellen Winslow stats

12.40 Jason Witten

12.11 Owen Daniels

11.89 Dallas Clark

11.68 Chris Cooley

[Trojan35 0]

So, the biggest choices you make are between two players rated closely. I use the following to make up my mind:

 

1) Who's Faster?

2) Who doesn't have a solid #2 stealing carries?

3) Can he block?

 

Note: #2 doesn't apply for "stud" RB's, like Westbrook, LT, or ADP (or Faulk/James/Holmes back in the day). A solid backup would actually help their value as you'll have a better handcuff.