Who do you see falling in the rookie draft?

[#1LionFan 0]

In addition to the top overall pick, I also have pick 1.10 in a 3-round rookie draft in a salary cap dynasty league. I can probably trade it for 2nd and 3rd round picks.

 

This is the way I see it going:

 

These 7 are locks to go somewhere in the top 9 picks (in no particular order): Moreno, Wells, McCoy, Brown, Greene, Crabtree, & Harvin. I am also guessing that Stafford & Maclin will also be gone before I pick at 1.10

 

So at worst, with pick 1.10 I will have my choice between Sanchez, Nicks or Robiskie. Do you see value here at 1.10 costing $11 or trade this pick for multiple 2nd ($2) and 3rd rounders ($1)?

 

UDPATE: TRADED 1.01 FOR 1.05 & 2.05 (then traded 2.05 for H. Miller $10 and 3.02). Seems almost like I gave the 1.01 pick away, but the #1 pick at $60 is risky. If a bust it is a huge cap hit. If the player explodes you can only afford to keep him for a year or two with the leagues inlating salary structure based on performance. The 1.05 is half the price and I will get whoever is left out of Moreno (will be gone), Wells, Brown, McCoy or Crabtree.

[jdon 28]

I think there is value in trading down... though pettigrew could be picked at 1.10 (some may say this is a little early, IDK your leagues preferences) and I like pettigrew to produce decently this year and extremely well in the future...

 

bonus: there are about 20 guys after the top 10 that are all the same so you might as well get them at a cheaper price.

jdon

[#1LionFan 0]

I think there is value in trading down... though pettigrew could be picked at 1.10 (some may say this is a little early, IDK your leagues preferences) and I like pettigrew to produce decently this year and extremely well in the future...

 

bonus: there are about 20 guys after the top 10 that are all the same so you might as well get them at a cheaper price.

jdon

 

Ya, I like Pettigre and Freeman, but not at 1.10. That is why I am trying to trade down into the second, wher it will only cost me $2. Problem is I can only get the 2.04, which is 18th overall. Just don't know what will still be there then.

[madd futher mucker 36]

There is only value trading down if you are in a league of 'fish'. IMO there are exactly 13 players worthy of a 1st round rookie pick:

 

Moreno, Wells, McCoy, Brown, Greene, Crabtree, Harvin, Stafford, Sanchez, Maclin, Nicks, Robiskie, Britt. These 13 represent a tier that is heads and shoulders over the rest of the field. and of these 13, I see the surest values to be Moreno, Brown, Crabtree, Harvin, Nicks, Robiskie, and Britt.

 

In a 12 team league, I definitely woud pay $11 for the additional 1st round pick, provide you stick with the safest of these guys. trust me, a real 'plum will fall to you at 1.10.

 

On the other hand, I'd trade my 2nd round pick down for two 3rd round picks, because the talent differentation between the next 20-25 guys is much harder for most owners to determine. You could easily get someone in the middle or even at the end of the 3rd round who is equal to or better than, say, pick 2.02. with a little study you should be able to figure out the likely potential future stars out of this group as well.

 

Pettigrew would barely make my board of the top 36 players. I DID select Freeman, but at 3.07.

 

FWIW: Here were my dynasty rookie picks: 1.04 Brown, 1.10 Harvin (who I then traded after the draft for Nicks and Bernard Scott). I traded my 2.04 for 2 more 3rd rounders. I then picked Mike Thomas at 3.04, Freeman at 3.07, Nate Davis at 3.08, and also picked up B Scott who previously went at 3.01 (part of that Harvin trade made after the draft was over). So I added 6 rookies to my dynasty team in a 3 round rookie draft.

 

BTW: I sure hope you are taking Moreno at 1.01.

[#1LionFan 0]

There is only value trading down if you are in a league of 'fish'. IMO there are exactly 13 players worthy of a 1st round rookie pick:

 

Moreno, Wells, McCoy, Brown, Greene, Crabtree, Harvin, Stafford, Sanchez, Maclin, Nicks, Robiskie, Britt. These 13 represent a tier that is heads and shoulders over the rest of the field. and of these 13, I see the surest values to be Moreno, Brown, Crabtree, Harvin, Nicks, Robiskie, and Britt.

 

In a 12 team league, I definitely woud pay $11 for the additional 1st round pick, provide you stick with the safest of these guys. trust me, a real 'plum will fall to you at 1.10.

 

On the other hand, I'd trade my 2nd round pick down for two 3rd round picks, because the talent differentation between the next 20-25 guys is much harder for most owners to determine. You could easily get someone in the middle or even at the end of the 3rd round who is equal to or better than, say, pick 2.02. with a little study you should be able to figure out the likely potential future stars out of this group as well.

 

Pettigrew would barely make my board of the top 36 players. I DID select Freeman, but at 3.07.

 

FWIW: Here were my dynasty rookie picks: 1.04 Brown, 1.10 Harvin (who I then traded after the draft for Nicks and Bernard Scott). I traded my 2.04 for 2 more 3rd rounders. I then picked Mike Thomas at 3.04, Freeman at 3.07, Nate Davis at 3.08, and also picked up B Scott who previously went at 3.01 (part of that Harvin trade made after the draft was over). So I added 6 rookies to my dynasty team in a 3 round rookie draft.

 

BTW: I sure hope you are taking Moreno at 1.01.

 

First off, I am taking Moreo, but am considering trading it for 1.04 and 2.01. Not sure but if I do that I get Whoever falls from Moreno, Wells, Crabtree, and Brown for about 1/2 the price plus an extra pick..

 

As far as the top thirteen, I can't argue. I do disagree with your assessment on a few players and their distance from the second tier rookies. I see the top 5 RBs and top two QBs as locks. I also see Maclin & Harvin as locks. However, I do not see Britt, Robiskee, and Nicks significantly better picks than Heyward-Bey, Coffee, or Davis just to name a few. I just think other than the elite player, it is such a crapshoot.

 

If I keep the 10th pick I will pray that one of the QBs or Maclin drop. I will not be enthused if I have to choose between Nicks, Robiskie or Britt. But if that is my choice, who do you like best to produce in 2009 and beyond?

[madd futher mucker 36]

First off, I am taking Moreo, but am considering trading it for 1.04 and 2.01. Not sure but if I do that I get Whoever falls from Moreno, Wells, Crabtree, and Brown for about 1/2 the price plus an extra pick..

 

As far as the top thirteen, I can't argue. I do disagree with your assessment on a few players and their distance from the second tier rookies. I see the top 5 RBs and top two QBs as locks. I also see Maclin & Harvin as locks. However, I do not see Britt, Robiskee, and Nicks significantly better picks than Heyward-Bey, Coffee, or Davis just to name a few. I just think other than the elite player, it is such a crapshoot.

 

If I keep the 10th pick I will pray that one of the QBs or Maclin drop. I will not be enthused if I have to choose between Nicks, Robiskie or Britt. But if that is my choice, who do you like best to produce in 2009 and beyond?

 

I wouldn't blame you for trading down for 1.04 plus 2.01. You will be staying within the top 13 and should get two extremely talented players.

 

I've spent literally days studying everything about this rookie class. I DO see a great separation between Moreno and Brown and all of the other RBs in the class. But Marino is CLEARLY ahead of Brown. Because of significantly higher risk of underperforming, (each for a different reason) I wouldn't gamble on Wells, McCoy or Greene.

 

Same thing with the QBs. While both of the top two QBs are POTENTIALLY franchise QB, neither of the top two QBs are 'locks' by any means. I'd rather risk my money on Josh Freeman with a 2nd or 3rd round pick than gamble on either of the two 'locks'. Freeman's chance of becoming 'elite' is really about the same as the other two - all of the physical tools are there. Yes, all 3 could become NFL starters, but there are 29 other NFL starting QBs - the odds are very much against ANY of them becoming 'elite' in the sense of Peyton, Brees, or Rodgers.

 

Maclin is FAR from a lock. He is VERY raw as a WR - hasn't had break jams at the LOS or run precise routes in college at all.

At this stage, the only thing 'elite' about him is his world-class speed - he's a return man and a WR project with a considerable 'bust factor'. High risk/high reward. Far too many players with world class speed became busts as NFL WRs.

 

On the other hand, Harvin is an indesputable talent who can contribute immediately in the offense, and has truly elite skills beyond just speed.

 

Nicks, Robiskie, and Britt (in that exact order) are MUCH better than you give them credit for. Nicks is NFL ready - polished in all facets of receiving and is extra-ordinarily athletic. Robiskie is equally NFL ready but not quite as athletic. IMO he will likely become a Hines Ward caliber WR (top 20 WR for many years). Neither of these two have much downside. Britt needs work on his hands and to a lesser extent on his routes. However he has all the tools, and is working with Rod Smith to polish his game.

 

None of these three are that far from Crabtree as far as their over-all game. I believe that Nicks has a 50/50 chance to have more productive career with the NYG than Crabtree does with SF.

 

As far as DHB, Coffee or Davis, here's my take: You have to look at DHB separately from Coffee or Davis. His Bust potential is HUGE - in fact, I'd bet on it! But there's no doubt he has elite 'measurables'.

 

Those three WRs you 'distain' all have VERY GOOD potential to spend most of thier careers as top 25 WRs. Coffee and Davis both could become serviceable journeyman NFL RBs - not much more - they are average NFL RB talents at best talent. In fact, Cedric Peerman, Bernard Scott and Rashad Jennings are likely to have better careers than either of those two guys you mentioned.

[#1LionFan 0]

I wouldn't blame you for trading down for 1.04 plus 2.01. You will be staying within the top 13 and should get two extremely talented players.

 

I've spent literally days studying everything about this rookie class. I DO see a great separation between Moreno and Brown and all of the other RBs in the class. But Marino is CLEARLY ahead of Brown. Because of significantly higher risk of underperforming, (each for a different reason) I wouldn't gamble on Wells, McCoy or Greene.

 

Same thing with the QBs. While both of the top two QBs are POTENTIALLY franchise QB, neither of the top two QBs are 'locks' by any means. I'd rather risk my money on Josh Freeman with a 2nd or 3rd round pick than gamble on either of the two 'locks'. Freeman's chance of becoming 'elite' is really about the same as the other two - all of the physical tools are there. Yes, all 3 could become NFL starters, but there are 29 other NFL starting QBs - the odds are very much against ANY of them becoming 'elite' in the sense of Peyton, Brees, or Rodgers.

 

Maclin is FAR from a lock. He is VERY raw as a WR - hasn't had break jams at the LOS or run precise routes in college at all.

At this stage, the only thing 'elite' about him is his world-class speed - he's a return man and a WR project with a considerable 'bust factor'. High risk/high reward. Far too many players with world class speed became busts as NFL WRs.

 

On the other hand, Harvin is an indesputable talent who can contribute immediately in the offense, and has truly elite skills beyond just speed.

 

Nicks, Robiskie, and Britt (in that exact order) are MUCH better than you give them credit for. Nicks is NFL ready - polished in all facets of receiving and is extra-ordinarily athletic. Robiskie is equally NFL ready but not quite as athletic. IMO he will likely become a Hines Ward caliber WR (top 20 WR for many years). Neither of these two have much downside. Britt needs work on his hands and to a lesser extent on his routes. However he has all the tools, and is working with Rod Smith to polish his game.

 

None of these three are that far from Crabtree as far as their over-all game. I believe that Nicks has a 50/50 chance to have more productive career with the NYG than Crabtree does with SF.

 

As far as DHB, Coffee or Davis, here's my take: You have to look at DHB separately from Coffee or Davis. His Bust potential is HUGE - in fact, I'd bet on it! But there's no doubt he has elite 'measurables'.

 

Those three WRs you 'distain' all have VERY GOOD potential to spend most of thier careers as top 25 WRs. Coffee and Davis both could become serviceable journeyman NFL RBs - not much more - they are average NFL RB talents at best talent. In fact, Cedric Peerman, Bernard Scott and Rashad Jennings are likely to have better careers than either of those two guys you mentioned.

 

Thanks for the insight man, very knowledgable! Impressed. Let me explain a few things. When I say "lock" I do not mean a rookie is guaranteed to make it big in the NFL. I was only speaking of where this particular player will be selected in MY league's rookie draft. In reality - NONE of the rookies are locks to become productive real or fantasy players - not even Moreno.

 

Also, with a low 1st, like 1.10 or a high 2nd round pick, I am looking for a player that in a year or two will evolve into a fantasy starter for me. I am not going to construct a roster expecting to start a rookie from day one. I do see Maclin and Nicks (and to a lesser degree Britt) as the same player. Extremely talanted, will have their moments, but will show their true rookie colors. Who would you draft here with the 10th overall pick? From what I gather you would take Nicks....would you still do that if Stafford (and to a lesser extent Sanchez) were available? Stafford is a risk but does have the best chance to be an elite QB out of any other rookie. Would you get one of these players at 1.10 for $11 or trade it for a 2nd and a 3rd rounder?

 

As far as the 1.01 pick, why do you think Moreno is so far ahead of Brown, Wells, etc? I like Moreno and will draft him if I keep the pick, but for $60 of my cap space, he scares me! If Cutler were there, Marshall was going to be there and be healthy & happy, if they did not have a stable of able veteran RBs currently ahead of him on the depth chart, and if they didnt have a coach that came from the Patriots RBBC approach (ala Maroney!) I would feel more at ease. What I am simply saying is that ALL rookies come with red flags and none are guarenteed to make it.

 

Unlike the 1.10 pick, I expect the top overall pick (or even top 5 pick for that matter) to contribute immediately since the top pick costs me $60 of my $400 cap. Do you think Moreno is worth the risk or get pick 1.04 and get the leftovers from Wells, Brown or Crabtree (also would consider McCoy & Harvin at 1.04)? This would also allow me to get a pretty good rookie in 2nd round for only $2.

 

Thanks for all the insight!!

[the_risen_demon 0]

BTW: I sure hope you are taking Moreno at 1.01.

 

MFM, I think you're spot on on most of your assessments, but I have to disagree about Moreno. First, let me say that were I able to do the deal, I agree on trading down to 1.04 and 2.01. But I've not been impressed with Moreno's tape. His balance and agility are undeniable. The hurdles and spin moves, while making great highlight tapes, don't strike me as skills that will translate to NFL success. Moreno does not run with good body lean or low center of gravity. By itself that's not a deal breaker; there have been plenty of effective pro backs who had a more upright style. But Moreno does not run with consistent leg drive, and he goes down on first contact far too often. He doesn't pick up that extra yard or two before going down that the great backs do. Ball security also seems like it will be an issue for Moreno. After looking at the tape I was surprised to see his sterling fumble record. He tends to let the ball hang out away from his body, even with defenders around him. It doesn't seem to me that he adequately shields the ball when they initiate contact, and often he can be seen carrying the ball in his inside arm. While collegiate athletes may not have been able to exploit this, it could become a problem in the pros. NFL defensive coaches place a great deal of emphasis on stripping the ball, and if he cannot secure it he could find himself on the bench.

[#1LionFan 0]

MFM, I think you're spot on on most of your assessments, but I have to disagree about Moreno. First, let me say that were I able to do the deal, I agree on trading down to 1.04 and 2.01. But I've not been impressed with Moreno's tape. His balance and agility are undeniable. The hurdles and spin moves, while making great highlight tapes, don't strike me as skills that will translate to NFL success. Moreno does not run with good body lean or low center of gravity. By itself that's not a deal breaker; there have been plenty of effective pro backs who had a more upright style. But Moreno does not run with consistent leg drive, and he goes down on first contact far too often. He doesn't pick up that extra yard or two before going down that the great backs do. Ball security also seems like it will be an issue for Moreno. After looking at the tape I was surprised to see his sterling fumble record. He tends to let the ball hang out away from his body, even with defenders around him. It doesn't seem to me that he adequately shields the ball when they initiate contact, and often he can be seen carrying the ball in his inside arm. While collegiate athletes may not have been able to exploit this, it could become a problem in the pros. NFL defensive coaches place a great deal of emphasis on stripping the ball, and if he cannot secure it he could find himself on the bench.

 

I see you did hour homework too. I feel like a moron chatting with you. So the deal out there now is 1.03, 3.03 and Mark Bradley at $4 for 1.01. 1) do you do this, and 2) if so do you like Crabtree, D. Brown, Wells, or McCoy? Thanks

 

BTW-I see your bold prediction on Campbell. I have him at $11 but will probably drop him for cap space since I have Peyton and get a 2nd QB for real cheap. Tried to trade him for a 3rd rounder but no one in the league seems to share your setiment on him.

[madd futher mucker 36]

leaving for vacation on the beach for a week in about 15 min. I'll only make 4 comments and follow up if I have internet access when I get to my vacation spot.

 

1. Absolutely avoid spending the 1st round money on either QB.

2. I don't have time to elaborate, but I suggest you do an advanced search of my numerous posts about rookie prospects under my user name and read all about why Moreno is 'elite'.

3. I really can't answer your question about trading down. If you were fairly sure that Brown would be available at 1.04, I'd trade down and get that extra pick. but if you have to chose between Crabtree and Wells at 1.04, then I'd stand pat at I.01 with Moreno. He is very close to a 'can't miss' prospect IMO.

4. Yes I rank Nicks as the #2 WR in this class, and only slightly behind Crabtree. I was a little severe in my assessment of Maclin; he COULD end up being a Ocho Cinco talent, but right now I see him as a bigger Ted Ginn Jr. He has a LOT to learn to become an elite talent, but if he has the discipline and the work ethic, he will eventually be one. And Robiskie is the most under-rated WR in th top 13 by far. Don't pass on him at 1.10 or 2.01 if he's there.

[the_risen_demon 0]

I see you did hour homework too. I feel like a moron chatting with you. So the deal out there now is 1.03, 3.03 and Mark Bradley at $4 for 1.01. 1) do you do this, and 2) if so do you like Crabtree, D. Brown, Wells, or McCoy? Thanks

 

BTW-I see your bold prediction on Campbell. I have him at $11 but will probably drop him for cap space since I have Peyton and get a 2nd QB for real cheap. Tried to trade him for a 3rd rounder but no one in the league seems to share your setiment on him.

 

No need to feel like a moron. I just have too much time on my hands. I like the earlier deal better if that is still on the table, but failing that, I think I would do the 1.03/3.03/Bradley deal if the 1.03 is going to save you a decent amount of cap space over the 1.01. At the 1.03, I would take #1) Wells, #2) Crabtree, #3) Brown.

 

As for Campbell, please keep in mind that was a bold prediction. Good luck with whatever you decide.

 

MFM, enjoy the time at the beach. I've read your posts on Moreno, and all I can say is that intelligent people can disagree. We do however agree on Hicks, Robiskie and Britt, though, and I would agree that any of them would be a good pick at 1.10 or 2.01 should #1LionsFan find himself in that position.

[Quickolas1 80]

i have the 1.12 pick in rookie draft with no real need at RB (could use a developing QB or WR)

so please carry on

[runner06 0]

I think there is value in trading down... though pettigrew could be picked at 1.10 (some may say this is a little early, IDK your leagues preferences) and I like pettigrew to produce decently this year and extremely well in the future...

 

bonus: there are about 20 guys after the top 10 that are all the same so you might as well get them at a cheaper price.

jdon

 

Disagree that there are about 20 guys that are about the same after the top 10

 

 

Top tier (4 players) - Knowshon Moreno, Michael Crabtree, Chris Wells, and Donald Brown

 

Second tier (5 players) - LeSean McCoy, Percy Harvin, Hakeem Nicks, Matt Stafford, and Jeremy Maclin

 

Third tier (5 players) - Shonn Greene, Mark Sanchez, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Brian Robiskie, and Kenny Britt

3.5 tier (1 player) - Andre Brown - All-around RB that went to the Giants, who have done a great job of selecting and developing mid-round RBs in recent year.

 

Fourth tier ( 5 players) -

Brandon Pettigrew - Could become a security blanket for Stafford

Brandon Tate - 1st round talent, but went in the 3rd round because of injuries and off the field issues

Bernard Scott - 2nd-3rd round talent that went in the 6th round because of five arrests

Josh Freeman - In actuality, 1st round QBs have about the same success rate as 1st round WRs.

Gartrell Johnson - Don't know much about him but like the N.Y. Giants, the Chargers have had excellent success with drafting RBs.

 

 

Total: 20 players above and beyond the rest and 14-15 players worth a 1st round pick.

 

debatable

Jared Cook - Needs to learn to block to stay on the field

Glenn Coffee - drafted in the 3rd round, but drafted to be a Leon Washington type RB and has Frank Gore in front of him

Mike Thomas - good talent, but under 5'8

Mohamed Massaquoi - 2nd round draft pick, but inconsistent

 

Overrated:

Austin Collie - Brandon Stokley only had one great season in Indy as a slot WR. Dallas Clark, although a TE, has assumed that role in recent years.

James Davis - Jamal Lewis might not be a very good RB, but Davis probably isn't either, otherwise the Browns would have taken him earlier. Jerome Harrison is just as likely to steal the starting role from Lewis as Davis. Also, it's very likely the future starting RB for the Browns isn't currently on the roster.

 

I count 20 players that are above and beyond the rest.

[#1LionFan 0]

Disagree that there are about 20 guys that are about the same after the top 10

Top tier (4 players) - Knowshon Moreno, Michael Crabtree, Chris Wells, and Donald Brown

 

Second tier (5 players) - LeSean McCoy, Percy Harvin, Hakeem Nicks, Matt Stafford, and Jeremy Maclin

 

Third tier (5 players) - Shonn Greene, Mark Sanchez, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Brian Robiskie, and Kenny Britt

3.5 tier (1 player) - Andre Brown - All-around RB that went to the Giants, who have done a great job of selecting and developing mid-round RBs in recent year.

 

Fourth tier ( 5 players) -

Brandon Pettigrew - Could become a security blanket for Stafford

Brandon Tate - 1st round talent, but went in the 3rd round because of injuries and off the field issues

Bernard Scott - 2nd-3rd round talent that went in the 6th round because of five arrests

Josh Freeman - In actuality, 1st round QBs have about the same success rate as 1st round WRs.

Gartrell Johnson - Don't know much about him but like the N.Y. Giants, the Chargers have had excellent success with drafting RBs.

Total: 20 players above and beyond the rest and 14-15 players worth a 1st round pick.

 

debatable

Jared Cook - Needs to learn to block to stay on the field

Glenn Coffee - drafted in the 3rd round, but drafted to be a Leon Washington type RB and has Frank Gore in front of him

Mike Thomas - good talent, but under 5'8

Mohamed Massaquoi - 2nd round draft pick, but inconsistent

 

Overrated:

Austin Collie - Brandon Stokley only had one great season in Indy as a slot WR. Dallas Clark, although a TE, has assumed that role in recent years.

James Davis - Jamal Lewis might not be a very good RB, but Davis probably isn't either, otherwise the Browns would have taken him earlier. Jerome Harrison is just as likely to steal the starting role from Lewis as Davis. Also, it's very likely the future starting RB for the Browns isn't currently on the roster.

 

I count 20 players that are above and beyond the rest.

 

Nice evaluations - So at 5, I will probably take whoever falls to me out of Knowshon Moreno, Michael Crabtree, Chris Wells, LeSean McCoy and Donald Brown. Do you see any other candidates for the 1.05 pick? I really want a RB, but if Crabtree falls I think I have to take him before Shonn Greene, even though Crabtree scares me.

 

At 1.10 I like Percy Harvin, Hakeem Nicks, Matt Stafford, and Jeremy Maclin. I know Harvin will not fall this far. Although I like Stafford a lot, I am doubting he falls also. So I may have to take whoever falls out of Maclin & Nicks. Any ideas who is more prepared to contribute now? I also like Brian Robiskie and Kenny Britt but cannot see taking either of them at 10.

 

Finally at 3.02, who knows. I am hoping Scott, Butler, Turner or someone like that drops. If not, I may take a flier on a TE for a dollar. Deep TE class this year.

 

Thanks for all your insight.

[the_risen_demon 0]

At 1.10 I like Percy Harvin, Hakeem Nicks, Matt Stafford, and Jeremy Maclin. I know Harvin will not fall this far. Although I like Stafford a lot, I am doubting he falls also. So I may have to take whoever falls out of Maclin & Nicks. Any ideas who is more prepared to contribute now? I also like Brian Robiskie and Kenny Britt but cannot see taking either of them at 10.

 

I'm not sure that either Maclin or Nicks has as clear a path as Robiskie (or even Britt) to produce in 2009, but longer term I like Nicks over Maclin.

 

Finally at 3.02, who knows. I am hoping Scott, Butler, Turner or someone like that drops. If not, I may take a flier on a TE for a dollar. Deep TE class this year.

 

This is a great class to take a flier on a tight end in dynasty leagues. Chase Coffman and Jared Cook would be my front runners.