Percy Harvin's value

[karmarooster 0]

There's another thread debating whether Percy is an advantage because of his label as WR for fantasy purposes.... but i wanna get down to some projections and figure out if he's a legit WR3 in PPR format, or if he's really only a bye-week fill in.

 

Minnesota rushing stats last year:

• Peterson 363
  
• Taylor 101
  
• Tjax 23
  
• Frerotte 19
  
• Berrian 4
  
• Duggan 4 = total 514
  

464 rushes from RB1 and 2. I'm estimating Harvin will average about 5 carries per game. not at the expense of peterson, but chester taylor. while taylor will still be the nominal 3rd down back because i'm sure he's a better blocker than percy, i still think harvin will get SOME carries on first and second down. 5 per game is nothing... remember they don't (and shouldn't) give the ball to Peterson every single time he's on the field. in fact, i expect them to limit his touches somewhat in order to prolong his career. he won't last too many years going over 370 rushes (363 + 20 in the playoffs). He'll still get a healthy dose of 350 rushes (about 22 avg. per game).

 

I expect Rosenfels to be the QB so so some QB scrambles will become RB carries. and the offense overall should improve with Rosenfels under center... keep in mind this guy has a career average of 7.4 yards per attempt. last year he averaged 8.2 in 6 games and 174 attempts! compare this to gunslinger cutler who averaged 7.3 per attempt last year. he will throw too many INTs to take the vikings deep into the playoffs, but he should be have a net positive effect on the offense. maybe there are a few more sustained drives and a few more rushes all around.

• Peterson 350
  
• Harvin 75
  
• Taylor 75 = 500 total, plus a handful of QB scrambles/kneel-downs and FB dives.
  

I also predict Harvin to average 4 receptions per game, so around 64 for the year. I stole this from Matt Waldman on some "other" forum:

Avg about 2 swing pass receptions per game = 32 catches

Avg about 1.25 intermediate (deep out, square in, slant) per game = 20 catches

Avg about 1 deep catch every three games = 5 catches

57 receptions. he's being conservative. Reggie Bush had 88 catches his rookie year, and Harvin is both a better RB and better WR than Bush... albeit Bush didn't have Peterson and did have Drew Brees and Sean Peyton.

 

I just don't buy the talk that Childress is too stupid to use Harvin effectively. then why did he draft him in the first round? why did he start installing plays designed specially for Harvin on his first day in training camp, including in the Red Zone package? Why did they add 30-40 pages to the playbook specially for harvin including wildcat formations? Childress knows his job is on the line and that he probably should've been fired last year. he'll run the offense through Peterson and Harvin with some deep bombs to Berrian.

 

5 rushes per game @ 5ypc = 25 yards

4 receptions at 9ypc = 36

8 TDs over 16 games

64 receptions...... add it up and you've got an average 4 receptions, a TD every other game, and 60 yards from scrimmage per game for an 13 points. he's got the big-play potential to give you 100+ yards from scrimmage and a TD in any game. So is he a WR3 worth pairing with 2 WR studs like Moss, Jennings, or Bowe? I think so. I'll look to get him and a steady possession type like Driver for my WR3 in PPR-standard 2RB+3WR and flex setups.

 

from minneapolis star tribune via rotoworld:

Rookie Percy Harvin "just keeps making highlight plays" in Vikings camp.

We don't normally file daily updates for rookies, but Harvin has our attention. In addition to the highlight plays, Harvin is showing excellent hands in various positions all over the field. Vikes coaches have made it clear in no uncertain terms that "Purple Haze" is going to major factor in the offense from the get-go

 

also from rotoworld: (article worth reading)

So what makes the Vikings offense, so mediocre last season, a potential fantasy bonanza this season? Let's take a look at the offensive ingredients:

 

The most talented, explosive runner in the league (Adrian Peterson)

A prototypical deep-threat burner on the outside (Bernard Berrian)

A unique, ultra-talented Swiss army knife with a high football IQ (Percy Harvin)

A wildcard red-zone receiver with great body control and leaping ability (Sidney Rice)

An outstanding third-down back (Chester Taylor)

A rock-solid all-around tight end (Visanthe Shiancoe)

An H-Back with outstanding blocking ability (Jim Kleinsasser)

An above average offensive line

 

Comments? am i chugging the kool-aid? throw out your projections if you disagree with me.

[Zackattack 0]

There's another thread debating whether Percy is an advantage because of his label as WR for fantasy purposes.... but i wanna get down to some projections and figure out if he's a legit WR3 in PPR format, or if he's really only a bye-week fill in.

 

Minnesota rushing stats last year:

• Peterson 363
  
• Taylor 101
  
• Tjax 23
  
• Frerotte 19
  
• Berrian 4
  
• Duggan 4 = total 514
  

464 rushes from RB1 and 2. I'm estimating Harvin will average about 5 carries per game. not at the expense of peterson, but chester taylor. while taylor will still be the nominal 3rd down back because i'm sure he's a better blocker than percy, i still think harvin will get SOME carries on first and second down. 5 per game is nothing... remember they don't (and shouldn't) give the ball to Peterson every single time he's on the field. in fact, i expect them to limit his touches somewhat in order to prolong his career. he won't last too many years going over 370 rushes (363 + 20 in the playoffs). He'll still get a healthy dose of 350 rushes (about 22 avg. per game).

 

I expect Rosenfels to be the QB so so some QB scrambles will become RB carries. and the offense overall should improve with Rosenfels under center... keep in mind this guy has a career average of 7.4 yards per attempt. last year he averaged 8.2 in 6 games and 174 attempts! compare this to gunslinger cutler who averaged 7.3 per attempt last year. he will throw too many INTs to take the vikings deep into the playoffs, but he should be have a net positive effect on the offense. maybe there are a few more sustained drives and a few more rushes all around.

• Peterson 350
  
• Harvin 75
  
• Taylor 75 = 500 total, plus a handful of QB scrambles/kneel-downs and FB dives.
  

I also predict Harvin to average 4 receptions per game, so around 64 for the year. I stole this from Matt Waldman on some "other" forum:

 

57 receptions. he's being conservative. Reggie Bush had 88 catches his rookie year, and Harvin is both a better RB and better WR than Bush... albeit Bush didn't have Peterson and did have Drew Brees and Sean Peyton.

 

I just don't buy the talk that Childress is too stupid to use Harvin effectively. then why did he draft him in the first round? why did he start installing plays designed specially for Harvin on his first day in training camp, including in the Red Zone package? Why did they add 30-40 pages to the playbook specially for harvin including wildcat formations? Childress knows his job is on the line and that he probably should've been fired last year. he'll run the offense through Peterson and Harvin with some deep bombs to Berrian.

 

5 rushes per game @ 5ypc = 25 yards

4 receptions at 9ypc = 36

8 TDs over 16 games

64 receptions...... add it up and you've got an average 4 receptions, a TD every other game, and 60 yards from scrimmage per game for an 13 points. he's got the big-play potential to give you 100+ yards from scrimmage and a TD in any game. So is he a WR3 worth pairing with 2 WR studs like Moss, Jennings, or Bowe? I think so. I'll look to get him and a steady possession type like Driver for my WR3 in PPR-standard 2RB+3WR and flex setups.

 

from minneapolis star tribune via rotoworld:

also from rotoworld: (article worth reading)

Comments? am i chugging the kool-aid? throw out your projections if you disagree with me.

 

 

You forgot to mention a important part of the offense.

 

They don't know who the QB is.

 

How good is Sage? Not all that.

 

I would say Harvin is a guy you can burn a later round pick and hope. He is a rookie don't forget. He is not playing in the NCAA anymore.

[karmarooster 0]

You forgot to mention a important part of the offense.

They don't know who the QB is.

How good is Sage? Not all that.

I did say this:

I expect Rosenfels to be the QB so so some QB scrambles will become RB carries. and the offense overall should improve with Rosenfels under center... keep in mind this guy has a career average of 7.4 yards per attempt. last year he averaged 8.2 in 6 games and 174 attempts! compare this to gunslinger cutler who averaged 7.3 per attempt last year. he will throw too many INTs to take the vikings deep into the playoffs, but he should be have a net positive effect on the offense. maybe there are a few more sustained drives and a few more rushes all around.

 

also, from the rotoworld pancake blocks blog:

So where's the weak spot? Quarterback? Tarvaris Jackson was a fantasy nightmare for the Vikings' skill position players, and the aging mediocrity known as Gus Frerotte wasn't much better.

 

I'll grant that Rosenfels isn't an ideal NFL starter, and he doesn't have what it takes to lead the Vikings deep into the playoffs. His bad decisions and penchant for backbreaking turnovers make him a top-notch NFL backup instead of a long-term solution. However, one thing Sage can do is produce fantasy numbers. He's not afraid to take chances down the field, and his shocking career 7.4 YPA proves that he's often successful. Unlike Jackson or Frerotte, he can open up this offense.

as long as he doesn't helicopter, he should be good enough.

 

[PackYourNut 47]

Certainly if he gets 9 touches per game, he will have WR3 value. If you believe that to be true, then I'd day your spot on. What WR that gets 9 touches per game wouldn't have WR3 value?