Reevaluating strategies, identifying personal weaknesses...

[Cuda1337 1]

I play in one FF league every year. It is a family league and very competitive, albeit a bit unpredictable. We have been playing together for 3 years. Every year I have made the 4 team playoff, but I have yet to win it. As a result I am fundamentally rethinking my strategies this year.

 

Generally speaking I load up on WR's/RB's. I feel that it is very hard to predict which ones will have good years and which ones will bust. Forte/Slaton for example. One year Slaton was a 10th round pick that puts up great numbers. The next year he is a 3rd round pick that is a total bust. Very hard to predict. As a result, I like to carry as many RB's/WR's as possible. With a 16 roster size, 9 starting positions I will generally go with something like this. 2 QB's for a QBBC (late round picks). 5 RB's, 5 WR's 1TE 1 Def 1 Kicker. I play matchups with my defense and play good weather situations with my kicker.

 

 

Looking at things this year. I am looking at the 1 spot in the draft. I figure that's perfect because I get my LOCK at RB. AP. I figure him to be the most consistent and even if CJ outscores him by 20 points this year, I figure AP has the best chance to perform like a top 5 back. Wheras the others are a bit risker to drop out of the top 5.

 

Now here is where things get a bit tricky. Generally speaking I would take RB's/WR's for the next couple of rounds. I particularly valued picks in the mid rounds, 3-6. I would target guys that had a lot of upside but for some reason didn't perform to their expectations the year before. Someone like D. Bowe this year. He has the talent to be a first round guy and he has done so, but I can get him at round 5 due to a poor season the year before.

 

 

Now before we go any further, I must mention that our league allows trading of draft picks and I am very keen on doing this. I feel that many players do not know how to properly assess the value of a draft pick and I like to use this to my advantage.

 

 

This season, there are two main things I want to reevaluate.

 

1. Is it wise to target 'rebound' players, if you will. Bowe is a rebound candidate. He has had some very solid years with an off year this last year. You would hope he would rebound to his previous success and you get very good value due to his prior seasons disappointments. Ochocinco was a player like this for me a few years back. He had the shoulder injury which caused him to drop significantly. If I remember correctly, he came back and was a disappointment, even at the value I got him at. This seems to have happened to me on many occasions and it makes me wonder if it is a poor strategy. Perhaps a better strategy is to target players who are younger and have not yet hit their peak. For instance, Malcolm Floyd or Percy Harvin. Sure, they could easily put up another 50 reception season, while Bowe goes by to 90 receptions. But at the same time, they could breakout and be the new 90 reception guy. In the past, I favored the guy whose been there before. Is this a poor idea?

 

 

2. Do I overvalue mid round picks 3-6 and undervalue 7-10? By round 6 I would probably have 3 RB's and 3 WR's, with the idea of taking maybe one or two more at each position later in the draft as fliers. Those fliers would come after round 10 usually, as it'd be time to get my QB and TE. The thing Ive noticed in past years though, is I'm getting ready to select my QB and there are still RB's on the board that are intriguing to me. Let's take for example this year. If I were to wait and grab Eli Manning in round 7, chances are I'd see someone like Justin Forsett or Michael Bush sitting on the board as well. I'd really like to grab one of those guys, as they have a lot of upside, but I need to get my QB.

 

An alternative strategy might be this. Grab your QB early. Get a stud and only get one. This free's up an extra spot for another flier. Hell, maybe even get a stud TE early. This will cost you early-mid round picks (say rounds 3-4) on your RB's/WR's. So you'd lose yourself Pierre Thomas or Reggie Bush, but you'd be picking up your stud QB. So you'd be looking at two scenarios. Scenario 1: QB Eli Manning, RB Reggie Bush. Scenario 2: QB Tony Romo, RB Michael Bush.

 

 

If I were to argue for the second scenario, it would be something like this. There is a larger and more predictable disparity between top tier QB's and mid tier QB's than there is a between RBs/WRs. The RB/WR position is more unpredictable, thus it lessens the value of the mid round picks and raises the value of the late round picks, due to unpredictably.

 

 

Now I am not quite sure I believe this yet. I'm not a statistician, but I'd be curious to see, if we were to go back the last couple of years and compare preseason ADP's to actual performance if we would see a lot more volatility in RB/WR than we would in QBs. If you are nearly as likely to get a top 20 RB out of round 7 as you are round 4, than why not take that stud QB in round 4 and then try your luck in round 7 with whatever RB's are left?

 

 

Sorry about the long post, its just something that I've been debating for a few days and I thought you guys would find it interesting and be able to add some valuable discussion.

[Dragan187 7]

you are over analyzing it.

 

If you make the playoffs every year then your current strategy works....you just haven't been lucky. It takes a certain amount of luck to win any league. You start second guessing yourself and youre gonna have one sh!tty team come draft day.

[Cuda1337 1]

you are over analyzing it.

 

If you make the playoffs every year then your current strategy works....you just haven't been lucky. It takes a certain amount of luck to win any league. You start second guessing yourself and youre gonna have one sh!tty team come draft day.

 

 

Perhaps I am, but I am not one to not try to achieve more. I feel my football knowledge is vastly superior to my opponents. I also am just in general, a smarter person. These two things should allow me a huge advantage. But I've yet to be truly dominant. Therefore, perhaps my strategy is poor and my superior football knowledge has masked that, allowing me to make the playoffs even with poor draft strategy. If I were to improve my draft strategy AND use my superior football knowledge throughout the season, perhaps I will be saying CHAMPIONSHIP at the end of the year.

[madd futher mucker 36]

I didn't like your trade up to get 1.01 (I think it was you that did that?), but you have been asking the right questions and picking up the right strategies here. I'd recomment that you re-look at the thread about strength of schedule about a week back. Some of those sites give a separate analysis to play-off SOS by position. Very helpful since you've made the play-offs consistently, you really need to have an eye for which impact players and which defense have great play-off schedules. Hint: don't necessarily draft, but consider picking Miami off the waiver wire when they will be dropped for their week 5 bye. they have a cupcake wk 14-16 schedule.

 

This is the year that with both good pre-draft and in-season planning for you to win the whole thing.

[stonewall 647]

I feel my football knowledge is vastly superior to my opponents. I also am just in general, a smarter person.

 

 

 

LOL.

 

Pride goeth before a fall.

[gimethedamnball 2]

I am in a similar situation to you. in the past few years, I have had the best record year in and year out and the most points. The last two years, I have been the one seed in a four team playoff and been knocked out the first game. My strategy has always been having 1 stud at each position. We score 6 points for running, passing and catching so it bodes well for the team that has a stud QB. Last year I took Brees, then A Johnson, then R Rice. I also managed to get D Clark in round 6. So, I felt good that I achieved my goal of having a stud at each position. This year, my strategy will be the same and I hope will finally bring home the trophy. I do a similar thing and plug and play flavors of the week for Def and K. I also will look a little more closer at the schedules is week s 14-16. I've been burned by Indy in years past and although you can do well throughout the year with any of their skilled players, you know they will be rested during those weeks if they make a playoff spot. I think your suggestion to get a stud QB maybe in you best interest this year. IMO, there are 5 or 6 of them and then a dropoff. I would feel much better with Romo and Bush than Manning and Forsett.

[Cuda1337 1]

LOL.

 

Pride goeth before a fall.

 

 

It may sound egotistical, but its most certainly true in my league. Doesn't matter though, as I haven't won a championship yet.