Why the odds AGAINST Cam Newton are so high.

[madd futher mucker 36]

After reflecting on the learning curve that college QBs will face in transitioning to the NFL (and Cam Newton in particular - and I really do like Newton and hope for his sucess), I thought I'd write an article with my thoughts on college offensive systems and the impact on the QB's ability to adjust to the NFL.

 

Please enjoy my article and feel free to comment:

 

All of the top 6 QBs in this year's draft class have considerable raw talent to play at the next level. Three of them - Locker, Mallet, and Ponder have come from systems that are basically “pro style” schemes with multiple sets. The other three, Newton (read-option spread offense), Gabbert (multi-formation, but basically a passing-spread offensive attack) and Kaepernick (“Pistol” offense) mostly played in different variations of the spread attack. So how much more difficult of a transition will these three QBs face?

 

Like any QB from a “pro-style” college offense, they must adjust to bigger and faster defensive players, new sophisticated blitz packages, and they will seldom see soft zone defenses where CBs sit 8-10 yards of the LOS. But in addition, they must rapidly make the significant adjustments required to run the “pro-drop” and multi-set NFL offensive schemes. These guys must quickly perfect the five and seven step drop; they must learn pocket presence including avoiding pressure - learning when to slide laterally or “climb the ladder” in the pocket; they must learn new throwing mechanics once they set their feet; and most of all they must learn to go through multiple read progressions on both sides of the field.

 

Part of the problem of understanding how “translatable” the QB is depends on the type of spread offense he came from. The more Rich Rodriquez based read-option spread is a running spread where the QB reads run/handoff/pass. These guys (insert Cam Newton's name here if you like) can obviously be expected to struggle more than QBs from a “pro-style” system, but they will also struggle more than QBs from teams that use a passing-spread attack. I don’t think there is any QB from a true read-option spread offense that has made a totally successful transition to the NFL (the jury is still out on Tim Tebow, but since he wasn‘t thrown into the ‘fire' right away, and he has a tremendous work ethic, I think he has a good chance).

 

On the other hand, QBs that played in an "Air Raid" passing-spread system have transitioned fairly quickly - Sam Bradford, just to mention one with significant early success. So QBs from the passing-spread have a much better chance of earlier NFL success.

 

Many NFL teams do in fact employ variants of the spread offense, but it is in addition to their drop-back formations, and it is much more complex in terms of route progressions and coverage reads. It is just another weapon to keep opposing defenses off-balance. By comparison, most of the college spread offenses (including all of the read-option spreads) are really designed to simplify things for their most talented multi-skill athletes, and to allow offenses to basically isolate that talent against opponents.

 

Now here’s where we can have a problem of unrealistic expectations. On one hand, the teams that need QBs the most are likely to be the teams that draft early with the poorest records and usually they have the least surrounding talent. QBs selected in round 1 by these teams are usually forced to start too early. Not only that, but the expectations of these teams (and their fan base) are that these rookie QBs will essentially be ready to come in and play like veterans.

 

Is it any wonder, then, that the success rate is so low for QBs drafted in the top 10 of their draft class? And unfortunately that success is less likely to happen with a QB from the spread system - especially from a read-option spread system. Newton, Gabbert, and Kaepernick CAN make it in the NFL, but the higher they are selected in the draft and the greater the pressure exists for achieving instant success, the less likely actually achieving that success will be.

 

That's really the reason why, of the spread style QBs, 'my money' is on Kaepernick. He is highly likely to be given the time to warm the bench and absorb and learn for a year or two.

 

Cam Newton, on the other hand, will in all probability be expected to start almost immediately - and play well - way before he is ready. Newton is not even 22 years old yet. I wouldn't want to be his age and to face the pressure to succeed that he will have to face next year - regardless of how much money he makes!

[Pavlov 0]

I generally agree, although not quite on the point of passing-spread QBs adapting. Gabbert lived in the shotgun and really reminds me of Alex Smith. I think the success of Bradford, Freeman, etc. in recent years has probably distorted expectations of rookie QBs, especially considering this is a fairly weak QB class. I like both those guys, but one played in the worst division in living memory and the other was only really good vs. sub-.500 teams. A large part of a QBs success has to do with the system and environment they go to. If a guy is drafted early, goes to bad team where he's expected to start out of the gate, and has a new O-Coordinator every year, I don't care how much talent he might have, he's not going to be very good 90%+ of the time. Some of the guys in this year's class might develop into quality #1 QBs, but they're all projects and I think drafting project QB's top 5 (probably top 10-15, honestly) is a mistake, if only for financial reasons.

[sirensong 111]

good writeup. makes a really solid argument.

 

stylistically though, you might want to ditch all the scare quotes--they're unnecessary and they distract from the content. NBD for a forum post, but if you're prepping this for publication (it's a strong enough piece), it'll make a difference.

[madd futher mucker 36]

Thanks to both of you for the feedback.

 

As Pavlov suggests, while we agree on most of the points, I do believe that transitioning from a more standard passing spread offense is much easier than transitioning from a read option spread system. I would minimize the weak competition aspect of Freeman and Bradford's success and point to their student of the game mentality, their leadership skills and their great talent as reasons why they are succeeding. Alex Smith faced obstacles regarding changes in offensive coaching and structure, but the reason he has not succeeded IMO has more to do with Alex Smith than the system he came from.

 

I also appreciate your comments, sironsong. I've done over 40 years of job-related business and technical writing, and I've always fancied myself as being able to write in a simple and readable style. I'm coming to realize that I can improve on some complex sentence structure idiosyncracies I have developed.

 

As I move into semi-retirement, I have indeed entertained the idea of doing fantasy-related pieces for publication on either a freelance basis or as a staff writer for a fantasy website. So I especially appreciate your critique of the article from a structural standpoint.

 

I might try out a few more articles in this forum in the near future. One guy I'm fascinated with and have some insight on is Greg Little. He is the prototypical boom or bust prospect. If he can get his head screwed on straight, he could be in the same class as A J or Julio.