A Strategic Approach to Blind Bid Waivers

[madd futher mucker 36]

You will find very few, if any, good articles on Blind Waiver bidding strategy. I have played enough fantasy seasons using blind waiver bidding to develop a strategy that works for me. Some of my pick-ups will turn out average or below, but I put a lot of effort into identifying the potential diamonds in the rough and picking up VALUE, even at the expense of positional balance. For example, in my 17 roster spot re-draft league, I picked up Cam Newton as my 3rd QB. He already has the look of a leader and he can obviously make plays with both his arm and his legs.

 

Before I get to the strategy, I must set some assumptions and parameters for how to make it work:

1. You have to have a reasonable idea of how many players you would normally pick up per season in a non-bidding waiver system (you can exclude defenses and kickers from this number if your blind bid waiver system is immediately followed by open waiver free agent pick-ups until waivers are re-locked for the next weekend’s games). I am a VERY active weekly roster manager and have had a long history of playing in leagues with transaction limits. I am very uncomfortable playing in leagues that allow less than 25 waiver pick-ups per season. Allowing 5 pick-ups for defense and kicker changes, 20 position player pick-ups per season is a tight number that I can live with. Given a season blind bidding budget of $100, this means that my average player acquisition cost must average approx $6 per week in each league - this assumes that there are 16 weeks of waiver bidding.

 

2. Early season bids will be higher than mid season bids, which will be higher than late season bids. This is for at least three reasons for this:

A) It is just human nature. Just like in real life, owners overspend until they realize that they are running out of money. At that point, they become much more restrained in their personal spending. Fantasy owners are no different.

B ) Every year there are a few phenomenal early break-outs. Nobody wants to miss out on “that guy’. Even some fantasy experts I respect highly are vulnerable to an “all-in” mentality, and are not afraid to spent 50% of their annual budget or more on a that “next stud” player. Last year, a very good fantasy player in my league spent $99 of his $100 budget on Brandon Jackson after the week 1 season ending injury to Ryan Grant. I have a rule NEVER to spend more than 25% of my budget on any one player, and I do so knowing that I had better be right, because that pick-up will severely impact the rest of my season. It is far better to let the other owner overspend, even if it means missing out on the potential stud. The risk is just too great and there will be other opportunities later.

C. The guy you pick up early has the potential to help your team for the whole season, so early season pick-ups are logically worth more than late season ones.

 

2. Realize that most owners will only bid for immediate need or additional depth. While few bid primarily for value, perceived value WILL BE the primary consideration in how high they will bid on a player, and therefore will determine how much you will have to bid to win that player. Some host sites allow you as owner to see all bids, whether successful or not. Others only allow you to see the winning bids. Either way, by logging all of the bids, after a few weeks, you can get an idea of how the other owner thinks, if he is likely to bid on a certain player and get a good clue as to how much.

 

3. This is most important. You don’t have to be a gemologist to tell the difference between pyrite and gold, gravel or a diamond in the rough. In fantasy football, especially against top notch competition, it helps to be a “gemologist” when it comes to discerning fantasy value. In order to get decent value for your bids, you have to recognize that diamond before it becomes apparent to the other owners in your league. At the point that even a few other owners become aware of the break-out, the price goes WAY UP. Consistently getting the hidden value waiver pick-ups requires early and continuous research, and the ability to pull the trigger earlier than your leaguemates.

 

With that background, here is the strategy that I have found to be optimum for me: I front end load the 1st 4 weeks and budget as follows:

 

Assuming my 20 transaction budget based on 16 weeks of waivers, my average amount per week (per league) for weeks 1 through 4 can be about $14. Note that I went behind one week by picking up Newton!

For weeks 5 through 13 I allow myself only $4 per week per league.

For the play-off weeks 14-16, I’ll only need $2 per week.

I’ll pick up some position players and almost all needed defenses and kickers off open waivers immediately after bids are opened (trying to beat the other owners to the punch).

 

My cardinal rule is to NEVER allow myself to get more than one week behind my budget!

 

Here are this week's winning bids from my four PPR leagues (adjusted for $100 budget and mine are in bold) and my comments:

Sproles - $51 (nice player, but way too much)

Caddy - $7/$20/$30 (range represents winning bids in 3 leagues - I couldn’t criticize the $20 bid here)

McCluster - $8 (I can use him as either a flex RB or WR in this roster 16 league, preserving a roster spot.)

E Graham - $2 to $4

Devery Henderson - $6/$16/28/$52 (I got him for $6; why would you spend over half your annual budget for this guy?)

Branch - $5.50/$37 ( I got him for the right price - Why would you spend 37% of your budget on Branch?)

Gaffney - $17

M Clayton - $15

Jac Jones - $10 (Not bad, this is a return yardage league)

Simpson, D Nelson, Arrington, A Brown, Lafell ($3-$4)

Dickson - $25 (???)

Chandler - $1/$16

F Davis - $5

Pitta $3

Newton - he was only on the wire in one league where I got him for $23.

Henne - $9/$15

Fitzpatrick $5

 

I hope this article gave you lots of food for thought (but not to use against me if you are in one of my leagues), and I encourage you to share your thoughts, comments or questions about blind waiver bidding. - mfm

[murf74 461]

got Cam for 7 bucks

 

Caddy went for 35 which I thought was way to high for 100 bank.

 

Henderson went for 15.........I waited till after waivers went thru and got Meacham for free

 

Sproles went for 18...if you knew they would be behind all year and need to pass so much that would be the right price....but I don't think they will be behind by 2 TDs very often in the first quarter

[SameSongNDance 0]

Good read man. Hilarity ensued in the first week of my $1,000 league. We start with a budget of $200. Enjoy...

 

Carnell Williams - $99

Jacoby Ford - $50

Scott Chandler - $26

Devery Henderson - $26

Deion Branch - $23

Dexter McCluster - $20

Jermaine Gresham - $15

Chad Henne - $11

Mohammad Massaquoi - $10

Billy Cundiff - $5

 

Yeah, someone spent 1/4th of their budget on an OAK WR...good stuff.

[We Tigers 71]

I'm generally with you. This is actually my first year doing blind bid, but in looking around, it seems like a sound approach. In the league I'm doing it--an IDP league--there are definitely a lot of folks bidding high for a $100 budget: $30 for Caddy, $25 for Henderson, and way too much on some IDP players (Revis went for $11, Henry Melton for $10, etc). I think a lot of guys are going to run out of money a week or two into the byes since we start 7 offense, a kicker, and 6 IDP, but I do agree that you get the biggest values early in the year.

 

I picked up Eric Decker for $3 and Sean Lee for $3. Not bad, I think, and I know a few people put in $1 bids for each of them. I'll probably save a little more for the end of the year than you since it'll be pretty easy to lock down good late season players with $5 at the pace these guys are burning through.

[madd futher mucker 36]

I'm generally with you. This is actually my first year doing blind bid, but in looking around, it seems like a sound approach. In the league I'm doing it--an IDP league--there are definitely a lot of folks bidding high for a $100 budget: $30 for Caddy, $25 for Henderson, and way too much on some IDP players (Revis went for $11, Henry Melton for $10, etc). I think a lot of guys are going to run out of money a week or two into the byes since we start 7 offense, a kicker, and 6 IDP, but I do agree that you get the biggest values early in the year.

 

I picked up Eric Decker for $3 and Sean Lee for $3. Not bad, I think, and I know a few people put in $1 bids for each of them. I'll probably save a little more for the end of the year than you since it'll be pretty easy to lock down good late season players with $5 at the pace these guys are burning through.

 

Relative to the bids you described, you absolutely stole Eric Decker.

[jkil22 1]

Relative to the bids you described, you absolutely stole Eric Decker.

 

What sites allow you to do this kind of bidding for players on the wire?

[madd futher mucker 36]

What sites allow you to do this kind of bidding for players on the wire?

 

I believe just about all of them do. But I only play in Yahoo and MFL. Yahoo has it in their (free) custom league package as an option. It is much more fun than any other waiver system, because every Wednesday when I see who I got and did not get is a little like opening Christmas gifts.

[ashwiggins 0]

Steve Smith was available in one of my pay leagues. The guy dropped him right before the games started on Sunday. I spent $52 of my $100 and won. That's by far the most I ever spent on a player in the past six years. I don't know if it was a good investment yet, but I lost Colston in that league, so I needed help. I also got Henderson for $7, which seems about right according to that article.