Who to keep?

[The Bears are Back 0]

10 team league, standard scoring. Start QB,RB,RB,RB/WR,WR,WR,TE,K,D.

 

We can keep 3 players each year, with that player costing us the draft pick 2 rounds earlier than they were drafted last year.

 

I pick 8th this year.

 

Here are my options, and the round they will cost me. If I use two 18th round guys, I'll lose my 17th round pick as well.

 

Stafford (5)

Antonio Brown (8)

Kendall Hunter (12)

Gerhart (16)

Cruz (18)

Tebow (18)

Jared Cook (18)

Ryan Williams (18)

David Nelson (18)

 

Cruz in the 18th round is the obvious no-brainer, and I think Stafford in the 5th probably is too (but let me know if you disagree). Who would you guys recommend as the 3rd?

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

even though its non ppr, you answeered your own question.

 

 

stafford and cruz

[The Bears are Back 0]

even though its non ppr, you answeered your own question.

 

 

stafford and cruz

 

Thank you... but I still need one more player. We keep 3.

[Ditka vs. ______ 0]

I'd keep Antonio Brown. He ought to be a starter for you this year, and he should be a good value for an 8th round pick.

[The Bears are Back 0]

I'd keep Antonio Brown. He ought to be a starter for you this year, and he should be a good value for an 8th round pick.

 

That was my first thought, but his ADP is in the 70s, so I'm not really gaining much there.

 

I was thinking Cook (who is projected as #10 TE in some rankings) might be good value.

 

Or Ryan Williams, who likely would go in round 12 or so.

[DirtbagMcGee 0]

10 team league, standard scoring. Start QB,RB,RB,RB/WR,WR,WR,TE,K,D.

 

We can keep 3 players each year, with that player costing us the draft pick 2 rounds earlier than they were drafted last year.

 

I pick 8th this year.

 

Here are my options, and the round they will cost me. If I use two 18th round guys, I'll lose my 17th round pick as well.

 

Stafford (5)

Antonio Brown (8)

Kendall Hunter (12)

Gerhart (16)

Cruz (18)

Tebow (18)

Jared Cook (18)

Ryan Williams (18)

David Nelson (18)

 

Cruz in the 18th round is the obvious no-brainer, and I think Stafford in the 5th probably is too (but let me know if you disagree). Who would you guys recommend as the 3rd?

 

Do you have AP in your team? You may want to hang to Gerhart if you have AP because Gerhart may have to take the bulk of the work until AP gets back to form.

[Ditka vs. ______ 0]

So your considering A: A guy coming off an 1100+ yard season, in his first year with a chance to play. B: A potential #10 TE, like this is a rare find. or C: A 12th Round RB coming off a major injury and no NFL experience.

 

You can keep 3 players and you're seriously considering this?

 

Just out of curiosity, if you took Stafford in the 7th round last year, what happened to the players you drafted in rounds 1-6? Why aren't you keeping any of them?

[The Bears are Back 0]

So your considering A: A guy coming off an 1100+ yard season, in his first year with a chance to play. B: A potential #10 TE, like this is a rare find. or C: A 12th Round RB coming off a major injury and no NFL experience.

 

You can keep 3 players and you're seriously considering this?

 

Just out of curiosity, if you took Stafford in the 7th round last year, what happened to the players you drafted in rounds 1-6? Why aren't you keeping any of them?

 

Well, when you put it that way it does seem pretty simple. My draft was pretty awful last year.

 

My top 6 last year (Round 1 picks cost you this years 1&2. Round 2 costs you 1&3)

 

1) Arian Foster (wil cost 1&2)

2) Nicks - traded

3) Gates

4) Felix Jones

5) Harvin

6) Beanie Wells - Traded

 

Going through all that makes me wonder, should I keep Foster and give up my first 2 picks? They would be #8 and 13 overall. I wouldn't get my second pick until #28 overall.

[Ditka vs. ______ 0]

Wow - Can I join your league? You have the best player in the league, and you're not going to keep him? At least think of all the trade opportunities a guy like foster brings to the table, why would you give that away?

 

Keeping Foster is not giving up #8 and #13. You get to keep Foster, the #1 overall ranked player, as your 1st round #8 pick, so you're only giving up the #13 pick. There is a considerable value difference from the #8 pick to the #1 pick, especially when you consider how many of the other top tier players are going to be kept by other owners. If I were in your shoes, I'd try to get a feel for what players are going to be available to you at the #8 and #13 pick. Odds are, with the players being kept by the other owners, these picks aren't as valuable as you think they are.

[The Bears are Back 0]

Wow - Can I join your league? You have the best player in the league, and you're not going to keep him? At least think of all the trade opportunities a guy like foster brings to the table, why would you give that away?

 

Keeping Foster is not giving up #8 and #13. You get to keep Foster, the #1 overall ranked player, as your 1st round #8 pick, so you're only giving up the #13 pick. There is a considerable value difference from the #8 pick to the #1 pick, especially when you consider how many of the other top tier players are going to be kept by other owners. If I were in your shoes, I'd try to get a feel for what players are going to be available to you at the #8 and #13 pick. Odds are, with the other players that are being kept, these players aren't as valuable as you think they are.

 

You're probbaly right... so I'll go Foster, Stafford, Cruz. Pretty nice nucleus!

 

This is our first year switching to a keeper league, so I definitely haven't adjusted my thinking completely! I was going for the homerun with a guy like Williams instead of the smart move.

 

Thanks for your help!

[Ditka vs. ______ 0]

I'll go Foster, Stafford, Cruz. Pretty nice nucleus!

 

 

THIS

 

No Problem - Good luck this year.

[Ditka vs. ______ 0]

I would consider taking Williams around the 12th round, I just wouldn't use a keeper tag on him until he does prove to be a home run.

[Quickolas1 80]

I'm not sure I'd give up 1st & 2nd for arian... and I love arian

I'd map out who I think everyone would keep (if they were smart) and then do my own little mock to see how my team would look after a few rounds (giving up the #8 and #13 "overall" players and two stud starters for one)

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

I'm not sure I'd give up 1st & 2nd for arian... and I love arian

I'd map out who I think everyone would keep (if they were smart) and then do my own little mock to see how my team would look after a few rounds (giving up the #8 and #13 "overall" players and two stud starters for one)

 

i would do this as well.

 

the knee jerk reaction is to say keep Arian because he is a top 3 value costing ann 8 and 13.

 

but the real question is how many owners do you think will be keeping their 2011 first rounders at those price tags?

 

if the 7 owners in front of you are keeping guys like Calvin, Rodgers, McCoy, Rice, Chris Johnson, McFadden, MJD, etc etc then you can keep someone else like Antonio Brown and simply redraft Arian at #8.

 

if owners in front of you are tossing those types of players BACK into the pool and keeping their 1st and 2nd rounders, then you will lose out on Arian but still get a first round quality player and maintain pick 13.

 

Look at the rosters of the 7 teams picking before you. Unless a good amount of them have no legit 1st rounder I think I would opt to NOT keep Arian.

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

Thank you... but I still need one more player. We keep 3.

 

my apologies. before the arian foster information I would have told you to keep antonio brown for the 8th round pick. and i might say to do that anyway.

 

Foster, no second rounder, Stafford and Cruz

 

or

 

Projected first rounder, second rounder, Stafford, Brown and Cruz

 

that projected first rounder could be any number of the top 8 ADP players depending on who is kept by the teams before you. At worst it's MJD/DMC

[Stewburtx8 67]

There is NO WAY I would keep Arian Foster and give up the #8 AND #13 pick unless for some reason a lot of the top guys are being kept (which I doubt considering the price tag). That is NOT a good trade for you as much as I like Arian Foster. Let's put some name's to this decision based on ADP.. would you rather have:

 

Arian Foster and a 8th round pick (S.Ridley? T.Young?)

 

OR

 

#8 overall pick (MJD? McFadden?), #13 overall pick (Lynch? Charles? Fitz?), and Antonio Brown

 

By keeping Foster you're giving up the chance to draft 2 of the top 13 players, which I would rather have than just Foster. You only get to keep your 8th round pick.

 

By keeping Antonio Brown, you get to keep those top two picks AND you get a WR who's ADP is a 6th rounder in the 8th round. Seems like the much better decision to me.

[Ditka vs. ______ 0]

By keeping Foster you're giving up the chance to draft 2 of the top 13 players, which I would rather have than just Foster.

 

#8 overall pick (MJD? McFadden?), #13 overall pick (Lynch? Charles? Fitz?)

 

I have to disagree with this strategy. Again, you're not giving up 2 picks because you already have the first round pick in Foster, who may be significantly better than who ever is available at #8. These players listed above sound great, but how many of them will be kept by other owners? In my experience, the guys who are available in the first few rounds of a keeper league draft, are the guys who were drafted in the first rounds the year before, but weren't good enough to keep, i.e. Vick, Turner, Gore, S. Jackson, Hillis, Mendenhall. If it were a redraft league, and every player on the board was available, I would agree, but odds are at least half of these early round players won't be available to draft. The only way to determine the value of these picks would be to find out which players will be available. If you're unsure of who will be available, why not stick with a sure thing? If you're concerned that you may be missing out on some of these players, you can always trade Foster.

[Stewburtx8 67]

I have to disagree with this strategy. Again, you're not giving up 2 picks because you already have the first round pick in Foster, who may be significantly better than who ever is available at #8. These players listed above sound great, but how many of them will be kept by other owners? In my experience, the guys who are available in the first few rounds of a keeper league draft, are the guys who were drafted in the first rounds the year before, but weren't good enough to keep, i.e. Vick, Turner, Gore, S. Jackson, Hillis, Mendenhall. If it were a redraft league, and every player on the board was available, I would agree, but odds are at least half of these early round players won't be available to draft. The only way to determine the value of these picks would be to find out which players will be available. If you're unsure of who will be available, why not stick with a sure thing? If you're concerned that you may be missing out on some of these players, you can always trade Foster.

 

 

Obviously without a list of the other players that are likely to be kept, we all are just guessing. If McCoy, Rice, Calvin, Rodgers, Ch.Johnson, MJD, Brady, Mathews, Fitz, etc, are all being kept, then the value of the #8 and #13 pick drop significantly. If this is a long running league with unlimited keeper caps, then yes you could be right. But with the stiff penalty for keeping a 1st or 2nd rounder, I would think several guys would reenter the draft every year as well. Look at Arian Foster as a 1st rounder in this instance. He should of been kept as a late round pick or free agent from several years ago. The fact that he is a 1st rounder means this may only be the 2nd or 3rd year of the league. But obviously I'm just speculating.

 

But in general, if you can get 2 of the consensus top 25 players in redrafts with those first two picks AND keep Antonio Brown, I would prefer that over just Arian Foster and an 8th round pick. Now if more than half of the top 25-30 players are being kept, then I could see an argument for Foster. Just my opinion.

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

you can throw out guys like Lynch from the discussion because they are likely being kept for a much later round trade off.

 

this is why you need to look over every team picking before you and project who they are keeping. Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, Mccoy, Ray Rice, Calvin Johnson, Rodgers, DMC..... all those guys were first round picks last year. If their owners all pick before #8 then why would you ever keep Arian Foster?

 

Worst case, some of those players mentioned get tossed back, an earlier drafter gets Foster and you get a Darren McFadden type. downgrade? yes but viola! you have pick 13 also

 

Best case scenario, You get to redraft Foster, keep your 13th overall pick and obtain Antonio brown for good value as an 8th rounder.

 

 

my point is, when you look at 2011's first and second round picks (guys who will cost 2 picks to keep) I think there is enough talent to assume you will get a top 8 player by keeping pick 8 and pick 13.

[The Bears are Back 0]

This is indeed only the second year of this league since we switched from redraft to keeper.

 

I think it's safe to say that there's no chance of me getting Foster at #8, unless all 7 guys before me burn their pick on a keeper.

 

The guys in my league are generally pretty conservative, so I would expct that they don't burn 2 of their top picks on keepers.

 

You guys are right that I need to sit down and really analyze who is likely to be kept. A quick analysis makes me think picks 1-4 will not keep their top picks from last year, so they will be drafting in that round. #5 has McCoy, and would be facing the same decision I am- Is McCoy worth #5 and #15? #6 is facing the same question with Ray Rice.

 

Top 25ish players I expect to be kept (because of lower draft positions last year) include Matthews, Lynch, Cam, Gronk, Welker, Murray, AJ Green, Jordy. With the exceptions of Rice and McCoy above, the owners of the top studs are picking in the top 4, so I expect them to take their chances in the draft.

[steelers2101 7]

What would it cost you to keep Percy Harvin...a 3rd rounder? I think I'd rather have Percy a 1st and 2nd over Foster and a 3rd. That said, Brown and a 3rd might be better than Harvin and an 8th. Whether or not to keep Foster really depends on the available players and what you're actually giving up at the 8th and 13th picks.

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

This is indeed only the second year of this league since we switched from redraft to keeper.

 

I think it's safe to say that there's no chance of me getting Foster at #8, unless all 7 guys before me burn their pick on a keeper.

 

The guys in my league are generally pretty conservative, so I would expct that they don't burn 2 of their top picks on keepers.

 

You guys are right that I need to sit down and really analyze who is likely to be kept. A quick analysis makes me think picks 1-4 will not keep their top picks from last year, so they will be drafting in that round. #5 has McCoy, and would be facing the same decision I am- Is McCoy worth #5 and #15? #6 is facing the same question with Ray Rice.

 

Top 25ish players I expect to be kept (because of lower draft positions last year) include Matthews, Lynch, Cam, Gronk, Welker, Murray, AJ Green, Jordy. With the exceptions of Rice and McCoy above, the owners of the top studs are picking in the top 4, so I expect them to take their chances in the draft.

 

without doing the math, the question is not who will be kept from lower rounds but who will be available in those first 8 picks.

 

if picks 5 and 6 keep McCoy and Rice, you're drafting 6th. Are any of the following players likely to be kept? Megatron, Aaron Rodgers, McFadden, MJD, Chris Johnson? If not, you would be assured to be getting one of those guys. Granted you don't need a QB but just saying.

 

I guess I would lean toward keeping him but its not a no brainer like some are saying.

[Stewburtx8 67]

This is indeed only the second year of this league since we switched from redraft to keeper.

 

I think it's safe to say that there's no chance of me getting Foster at #8, unless all 7 guys before me burn their pick on a keeper.

 

The guys in my league are generally pretty conservative, so I would expct that they don't burn 2 of their top picks on keepers.

 

You guys are right that I need to sit down and really analyze who is likely to be kept. A quick analysis makes me think picks 1-4 will not keep their top picks from last year, so they will be drafting in that round. #5 has McCoy, and would be facing the same decision I am- Is McCoy worth #5 and #15? #6 is facing the same question with Ray Rice.

 

Top 25ish players I expect to be kept (because of lower draft positions last year) include Matthews, Lynch, Cam, Gronk, Welker, Murray, AJ Green, Jordy. With the exceptions of Rice and McCoy above, the owners of the top studs are picking in the top 4, so I expect them to take their chances in the draft.

 

OK..so based on what you are saying here, if you throw back Arian Foster, the best available players should be:

 

1) Arian Foster

2) Ray Rice (may be kept but will either be drafted or kept before you regardless)

3) Lesean McCoy (same as Rice)

4) Aaron Rodgers

5) Calvin Johnson

6) Chris Johnson

7) Maurice Jones-Drew

8) Darren McFadden

9) Tom Brady

10) Trent Richardson

11) Drew Brees

12) Matt Forte

13) Larry Fitzgerald

14) Adrian Peterson

15) Andre Johnson

16) Jamaal Charles

 

So with your #8 and #13 picks you should be able to get some combination of MJD/McFadden and Forte/Peterson/Charles/Fitz. Unless several more of the guys listed above are being kept, I'll stand by my opinion that I'd much rather something at worst like McFadden, Charles, and Antonio Brown over just Arian Foster and a 8th round pick. Am I missing something that everyone keeps saying to keep Foster?

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

OK..so based on what you are saying here, if you throw back Arian Foster, the best available players should be:

 

1) Arian Foster

2) Ray Rice (may be kept but will either be drafted or kept before you regardless)

3) Lesean McCoy (same as Rice)

4) Aaron Rodgers

5) Calvin Johnson

6) Chris Johnson

7) Maurice Jones-Drew

8) Darren McFadden

9) Tom Brady

10) Trent Richardson

11) Drew Brees

12) Matt Forte

13) Larry Fitzgerald

14) Adrian Peterson

15) Andre Johnson

16) Jamaal Charles

 

So with your #8 and #13 picks you should be able to get some combination of MJD/McFadden and Forte/Peterson/Charles/Fitz. Unless several more of the guys listed above are being kept, I'll stand by my opinion that I'd much rather something at worst like McFadden, Charles, and Antonio Brown over just Arian Foster and a 8th round pick. Am I missing something that everyone keeps saying to keep Foster?

 

I agree with you stew, I guess my only hesitation is if he ends up with dmc and Charles let's say. That's a risky duo. Is almost rather have foster

[The Bears are Back 0]

I agree with you stew, I guess my only hesitation is if he ends up with dmc and Charles let's say. That's a risky duo. Is almost rather have foster

 

That's exactly the question I'm struggling with. There is more potential with the #8 and #13 picks, but also more risk. If I keep Foster, I would reach to make sure I get Tate earlier that his ADP (if his owner doesn't use his 10th round pick to keep him). Then I have one stud RB locked in all season (in theory).

[Dynastyguru32 0]

I know this will take some work on your end but shouldn't be too hard to do. Can you list the first two rounds of picks from the teams in your league last year in the order that they will pick this year? This will give us an idea of who the teams ahead of you have and what would potentially be available at your picks in the first two rounds. Knowing this would make it much easier to get you teh advice that you need.

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

I know this will take some work on your end but shouldn't be too hard to do. Can you list the first two rounds of picks from the teams in your league last year in the order that they will pick this year? This will give us an idea of who the teams ahead of you have and what would potentially be available at your picks in the first two rounds. Knowing this would make it much easier to get you teh advice that you need.

 

this is true but I think Stew likely nailed it with his list above.

 

to me it boils down to being able to get a first round 2012 talent at pick 8. then pick 13 is just gravy considering you already have Stafford, Cruz and Antonio Brown on board. It would behoove you to select 2 RB's if possible.

[The Bears are Back 0]

I know this will take some work on your end but shouldn't be too hard to do. Can you list the first two rounds of picks from the teams in your league last year in the order that they will pick this year? This will give us an idea of who the teams ahead of you have and what would potentially be available at your picks in the first two rounds. Knowing this would make it much easier to get you teh advice that you need.

 

I'll do the first 3, since a 3rd round pick last year = 1st round pick this year. !st from last year = 1st & 2nd. 2nd round last year = 1st & 3rd this year.

 

Order 2011 1st 2011 2nd 2011 3rd

1 Roddy White Aaron Rodgers Mark Ingram

2 Andre Johnson Micheal Turner Phillip Rivers

3 Chris Johnson Greg Jennings Drew Brees

4 Michael Vick Darren McFadden Ahmad Bradshaw

5 LeSean McCoy Mendenhall Blount

6 Ray Rice Steven Jackson Forte

7 Jamaal Charles Larry Fitz Vjax

8 Arian Foster Hakeem Nicks Gates

9 Calvin Johnson Jones Drew Mike Wallace

10 Adrian Peterson Tom Brady Frank Gore

 

sorry for the bad formatting

Additionally, as mentioned above, the following possible top 30 guys will almost certainly be kept using later round picks.

 

Ryan Matthews

Marshawn Lynch

Cam Newton

Gronk

wes Welker

Demarco Murray

AJ Green

Jordy Nelson

Jimmy Graham

Julio Jones

Fred Jackson

Aaron Hernandez

[The Bears are Back 0]

Any more thoughts after I posted the above info?

 

I'm still leaning towards keeping Foster with the #8 & 13 picks. I'd have Foster, Stafford, and Cruz. With the 28th and 33rd pick I'd take the best RB and WR available. #48 pick would be Stafford, then at #53, 68, 73 I can get a 3rd solid WR and a couple upside RBs. Then I'd take Tate if still available at #88, and either a TE or more WR/RB depth at #93.

 

Basically, my starting lineup and beginning of the bench would look like this:

 

QB: Stafford

RB: Foster

RB: #28 (SJAX?)

WR: Cruz

WR: #33 (Dez Bryant?)

WR/RB: #53 (VJAX?)

TE: #93 (Tamme?)

 

Bench: #68 (Starks?)

Bench: #73 (Best?)

Bench: #88 (hopefully Tate)

[Stewburtx8 67]

I'd still say THIS looks a lot better:

 

QB- Stafford

RB- #8 pick (McFadden? Richardson?)

RB- #13 pick (Forte? Charles?)

WR- Victor Cruz

WR- #28 pick

WR- Antonio Brown

RB/WR- #33 pick or #53 pick

TE- #33 or #53 pick

 

Bench- #68, #73 pick, #93 pick

 

Foster is really nice but I would trade him for McFadden AND Forte. Plus you get Antonio Brown in the 8th round.

[The Bears are Back 0]

I'd still say THIS looks a lot better:

 

QB- Stafford

RB- #8 pick (McFadden? Richardson?)

RB- #13 pick (Forte? Charles?)

WR- Victor Cruz

WR- #28 pick

WR- Antonio Brown

RB/WR- #33 pick or #53 pick

TE- #33 or #53 pick

 

Bench- #68, #73 pick, #93 pick

 

Foster is really nice but I would trade him for McFadden AND Forte. Plus you get Antonio Brown in the 8th round.

 

I actually really want to agree with you, I just wish there were less questions with the RBs that will be available. Of the guys you listed, Forte is the most solid in my opinion, but his upside is limited by his poor goal line performance and the presence of Bush. all the other guys have serious question marks. If I knew CJ would make it to #8, I think I would feel better. I'm not super high on him, but I think he will improve from last year and be good value. I guess MJD would be OK at #8 as well.

[mister 0]

Antonio brown as the 3rd