Tyreek Hill and K.C.'s Offense 2021
So last season I drafted Hill in several leagues with my 1st pick. In fact, in a small $25 league I took him with thee #1 pick just for giggles. Michael Irvin, ESPN resident criminal, proclaimed him the most electrifying player in the NFL. Several FF sites had him ranked as the best WR in the league. So why did he disappear from game-to-game last year and watch Pringle and Hardman get his targets? Was it double coverage? Scheme?
Here's my theory. K.C. knew he would ask for the contract he eventually got from Miami and had no intention of giving it to him. In an attempt to devalue his worth, they reduced his participation in the offense. When you're paying $500 million to the QB, the T/E big money, and significant coin to a couple of D-linemen, there just isn't enough left to pay a WR $25 million a year. Hence the trade.
So, if I'm correct then this year I'll be trying to identify the players wanting to get paid, on teams that can't afford to pay them or won't pay them, and consequently move them down the draft board. Players that come to mind include Nick Chubb, Josh Jacobs, D K Metcalf, and David Montgomery to name a few.
Does this make any sense?
In the thread discussing Hill being traded to the Dolphins, I posted a link to an article stating that after week 6 (when the Chiefs were 3-3), they altered the way they called plays and game planned. It's why Tyreek Hill's numbers were down after that. Through 6 weeks, Hill was WR2 averaging 23 fpg. From Weeks 7 to 18, he was WR18 (for WR's playing at least 8 games), averaging 14.4 fpg. In that same time frame, Weeks 7 through 18, Mahomes was QB8 averaging 19.3 fpg. In the prior 6 weeks, he was QB1 averaging 26.9 fpg.
I think it's pretty safe to say that with Hill being gone, regression is likely. As someone said earlier, he'll still be great, but he won't be elite. I was thinking he'd still be top 5, but thinking about it more, I can see him fall to the 7 to 10 range because I think guys who were behind Mahomes last year, like Burrow, Jackson, Stafford, Murray, and Hurts, all could pass him this year.
A wild card though, could be that Mahomes' rushing yards & TD's go up. He's been around 300 & 2, but with Hill being gone, Mahomes may run more and post 450 & 5. That increase of 33 points would make up for a drop of what... 425 passing yards and 4 TD's. If he went from 4839 / 37 to 4400 / 33, but rushes for 150 more yards and 3 more TD's, it's a wash.