An attempt to understand strength of schedule

[T-HO 1]

When you search strength of schedule NFL fantasy football importance online, it states: SOS is an important tool for fantasy football and especially best ball drafters to utilize in the process of drafting teams and building best portfolios. There exists several areas that first need explanation in how scheduling works and changes every year, deciding what statistics in terms of points and yards should be included, and an understanding of the supply of where yards are distributed between passing and rushing. A good place to begin is understanding the nature of football numbers. The data set every year is finite in that this is what happened number wise. When i began in 1995 all anyone had was the wednesday stats showing points,rushing yards,passing,vs the pass vs the run and points allowed. They weren’t even sorted from 1st to 32nd one had to do that on my own. What I did not know is by doing so i was actually remembering in several different areas of the brain in iconic, semantic, and episodic memory. Much like school and coastal sea birds we need to hold for a while in our long term gullet then regurgitate. Decide on a data set, sort then store into long term memory for comparison and prognostication. Ok so let’s dive in.  

POINTS ALLOWED 2023 COMPARED TO NUMBERS AS OF WEEK 5

The numbers indicate that team who’s points allowed has fallen the farthest as of week 5 compared to(note only SF and Buff were ranked higher than 19th on this list I.e. the remaining defenses on the list then being those you want to start your wide receivers against compared to a top 5 defense that’s only allowing say under 200 yards passing..

Key: T denotes that that team’s descent statistically took them out of the top 10, which they had been ranked coming into the start of this season.

Also, the / symbol means that team rose or descended into the top 16 or out of it the other way to 32…

Balt-25-#1 wow from 1st to close to worst 

Dall-19-T

Oak-19-T

jax-14/

Tby-10-T

Cle-10/

Cin-10

Buf-8/

Sf-10

Keep in mind,of course, every time a team moves out of that spot in that ranking, here comes the’ol NFL pancake flip ‘o stats that occurs. Which means here comes a hot ,fresh stack ‘o new teams to move into the top ten or upper half of points allowed, a long with how many spots they moved up again as of week 5 compared to last season:

Den-25-T

Sd -23-T

Chi-15

Nyg-15-T

Det-13-T

Min- 10-T

Wsh-9

Phi-8/

mia-7

Sea-7

ne-6-T

Compare to last season on the left points allowed in order to numbers as of week 5:

Balt~SD

KC~Den

SF~Pit

Buf~Min

Dall~Chi

Pit~KC

TB~jets

NO=NO

Oak~NE

GB~Det     

Hou~NYG

jets~Buf

Cle~SF

Min~GB

NE~Ten

Ten~Mia

Jax~Hou

Atl~Sea

LAR~TB

Chi~Atl

Cin~wash

Mia~Phil

Det~Cle

SD~Dall

Sea~Indy

Nyg~Balt

Den~Ariz

Indy~Oak

Car~LAR

Phi~Jax

Ariz~Cin

Wash~Car

Ok,so with this in mind…what if we compared and analyzed the causal relationship(or not and why) of passing yards allowed and its relationship to points allowed. Spoiler alert if you allow 350-400 yards passing…you'll be allowing alot of points. A crucial element when tracking football teams before I forget is that 16-24 range of points and yards. As teams go from say 22 to 18 to 14 …and another goes the wrong way out of that range…essentially that's the point at which a player needs to be waived whereas another is trending upward. Tracking this and seeing these changes as I see it is one of the last remaining ways to sniff out a sleeper before your opponent does. Know the team. Know the player. On to passing yards allowed. Last years numbers on the left pya as of week 5 followed by a breakdown of who's going up ,down, or staying the same. 

2023 stats on the left column as of week 5 on the right

 

cle  ten

jets =jets

car  Hou 

kc   mia*

dal  den

balt chi

buf  sea

atl   cle

gb   atl

no   LAC

ne   dal

LV   Sf

arz  wash

sf    buf

mia nyg

ind  LV

pit   pit

ten  arz

G    cin

lar   lar

sea  kc

den  car

hou  gb

min  phi

chi   ne

jax   no

det   =

cin-  tb

tb     indy

Lac  min

phi   balt

was  jax

The losers falling in pya and how many spots….

Bal-25-T

Car-19-T3

Kc-  17-T5

No- 16-T

Gb- 14-T

Ne- 14/

Ind- 13/

Buf -07-T

Cle- -07

Dal- 06-T

Again the T noting they were previously in the top 10…the / simply meaning which way 0-16 or 17-32 that team has regressed where the amount of positions they have dropped has put them on the other half of 32 teams…

The winners:

Wash-21

LV-20

Hou-20

Chi- 19

Ten-17

Den-17

Sea-14

Mia-11

Cin- 11

5 of the teams who have dropped have losing records compared to just one who went up(mia)

My story is I drank every day for 17 years, wound up almost dying and in the hospital for 2 months undergoing several surgeries to remove pseudo-cysts surrounding and in my pancreas my sugar was 900 cholesterol 300 and all because I'm a drummer who made it past 27 and as such thought he was invincible I can joke now. My first system to better understand numbers was constructed in 2005 after the hospital in an attempt to better understand how statistics change as a season progresses and subsequently how to data mine information to make decisions to maximize ones point potential of their team that week. Thx for reading and good luck to all hope this was useful.

[T-HO 1]

Rushing yards allowed as of week 5:

Balt 

min

kc

det

pit

LV

no

jax

sf

den

gb

nyg

ne

nyj

ten

t bay

hou

chi

mia

sea

phi

wash

oak

dall

cle

buf

car

arz 

atl

cin

Indy 

LAR

[T-HO 1]

Compared to how they finished 2023 here are the losers I.e. those teams who have drastically fallen in terms of rushing yards allowed compared to stats as of week 5

Chi-17

cle-14

mia-12

tb-11

hou-11

phil-11

buff-11

ne-8

dall-8

indy-8

car-8

sf-5

[easilyscan 860]

Glad to hear you got over and survived your alcohol issues. Not sure if this is anything close to what you're referring to, but I sometimes use the SOS feature here at FF today if I have a really tough decision between two players at a particular position.

Regards

https://fftoday.com/stats/fantasystats.php?o=3