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Draft Buddy Overall Rankings - Clarification Needed Please


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#1 Gators69

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Posted 29 August 2017 - 12:38 PM

I purchased and am using the Draft Buddy excel.  I entered my league's scoring, options for league and roster size, and then action to check for update and update projections.  I am in a 8-team standard scoring league, and the top overall rankings were:

 

 

RB David Johnson ARI 8 292.2 148.3 1.01 RB Le'Veon Bell PIT 9 257.8 113.9 1.02 QB Aaron Rodgers GB 8 429.2 85.7 2.09 WR Odell Beckham Jr. NYG 8 217.2 74.2 1.06 WR Antonio Brown PIT 9 212.4 69.4 1.04 RB LeSean McCoy BUF 6 212.8 68.9 1.05 WR Julio Jones ATL 5 209.6 66.6 1.05 RB Devonta Freeman ATL 5 209.1 65.2 1.08 QB Tom Brady NE 9 406.4 62.8 3.08

 

Sorry for such a novice question here, but is the Draft Buddy suggesting that the 3rd pick in an 8 team draft is suggested to be Aaron Rodgers, because he has the 3rd highest value after Johnson and Bell, or should I be applying different logic in interpreting these results?  I just want to make sure I am understanding and analyzing the results correctly because it seems unusual to advocate picking a QB with the 3rd pick of an 8 team standard draft.   Thanks in advance.

 



#2 Mike MacGregor

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Posted 29 August 2017 - 01:35 PM

Hi Gators69. That is what it is saying, actually, and I can see why that would be the case.

 

Although we typically advocate waiting at QB because of the depth, in a small 8-team league, there is depth at all positions including RB and WR. In these leagues you can draft difference makers at QB and TE yet still get a RB or WR who are close enough to the top ranked RB and WR after drafting Rodgers, and Gronk lets say.

 

So in this case Draft Buddy is saying Rodgers is 85 points better than the 8th or perhaps 12th drafted QB. Beckham is only 74 points better than the 16th or 24th WR. I am guessing a little since I don't know your exact settings, but hence, Rodgers is more valuable.

 

I also think since it is less likely you will find a QB or TE on par with Rodgers - Gronk after the season starts, as compared to a RB emerges on par with ... McCoy? ... that puts even more support for going against the norm, drafting an elite QB, TE early, and then RB, WR after that.

 

Ultimately your call. It is a game of trade offs, but something to consider.



#3 Gators69

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Posted 29 August 2017 - 02:04 PM

Thanks for the info, Mike.  I really appreciate it.  I actually have first pick in the draft (standard) and am going David Johnson so based on what I am seeing I am leaning towards going Rodgers and Gronk at the 2/3 turn and then look to RB/WR in the next rounds.  Going Rodgers/Gronk should give me more of an advantage than going best WR/WR (like Dez/Baldwin) or RB/WR (like Gurley/Dez). 

I have just heard so much this year on the importance of waiting until later to get your QB/TE, but in such a small league like this I guess the risk is mitigated substantially.



#4 Mike MacGregor

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Posted 29 August 2017 - 02:27 PM

Yep, I am a proponent of wait at QB but given the circumstances of it being an 8-team league, if you could get Rodgers-Gronk at the 2/3 turn you would be in a great shape. Best RB, QB and TE? Absolutely, take that! Now I am not sure that is actually going to happen because even in an 8-team league someone might be very keen for one or both of those players.

 

Another consideration... beyond just the number of teams, but would you consider your league mates very skilled fantasy players or average to below average skilled (casual) players? In leagues with more casual players, the wait at QB philosophy doesn't work as well. That is because casual players will tend to take top QB earlier and have an advantage against you there while you think you are getting good value taking a second, third "great" RB for depth. You can see how the skilled player can outsmart himself by not reading the room properly.

 

The skilled player is more able to pick out prime undervalued players later, particularly at RB or WR. So say your first scenario plays out - DJ, Rodgers, Gronk... back to you then you get say, Kareem Hunt (because the casual players do not know who Kareem Hunt is) and DeVante Parker (because the casual players all think Jarvis Landry is the Dolphins WR to own). That is how you build a championship team as opposed to, for example, DJ, Doug Baldwin, Lamar Miller, another WR, lower ranked TE or QB.

 

Make sense?



#5 Gators69

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Posted 29 August 2017 - 03:06 PM

Yes. that makes sense. I would categorize my league mates as being in the middle (partial very skilled/partial casual).  There are some people in this league that do favor QB's more and would reach for one than maybe in all skill league.  I know last year Rodgers was the first QB off the board but not until 3.08, which makes me feel pretty good that I would be able to get Rodgers or possibly even Brady (who I don't have that far behind Rodgers) at the 2.08/3.01 turn.  Gronk has in some years gone mid 2nd, there are a few owners that covet him, but his ADP has him going later this year than in previous, so there is a chance he could still be there at the 2.08/3.01 turn.  

 

I was able to get Carlos Hyde in the 10th round last year, I could see that maybe happening (maybe not 10th round) but going a lot later than usual after rookies (Lamar Miller, Hyde, Ingram, etc) so there should be some value there.

 

My ideal scenario would be Rodgers or Brady/Gronk at the turn, or Rodgers or Brady/BPA, or if I miss out on both QB's then just go best WR/RB/TE until round 4 and take Brees at 5:01.