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future success based on end of season stats


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#1 donkeybalboa

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Posted 25 June 2012 - 06:37 PM

I am seeing recommendations for players who had increased targets, production, stats near the end of the season. Guys like Brandon Pettigrew, for example had 32 targets in the last 3 games, etc. Has anyone looked into any correlation between end-of-year success leading to the success the next year?

#2 stonewall

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Posted 25 June 2012 - 08:46 PM

I use it as an important consideration and worthwhile observation. It caused me to draft Foster two seasons ago.

Although the whole notion sometimes becomes blurred because of team changes or injury, a few RB's that really had strong finishes were R. Bush (lights out in ff playoffs), M. Bush, Matthews, Lynch, Spiller, and Helu.

I have also noted that Cook (as he did the previous year also) and Celek had strong finishes in 2011. I just mocked Celek in the 15th in a 12-man redraft.

Here is a RB-only chart showing correlations and stats between strong finishers/next years studs.

http://thefakefootba...-back-finishes/

I feel my football knowledge is vastly superior to my opponents. I also am just in general, a smarter person. These two things should allow me a huge advantage. But I've yet to be truly dominant.


#3 Matt Mueller

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Posted 26 June 2012 - 12:40 AM

For sure a great trend to look at. I always like to see who had a hot second half or last quarter of the season.

Jordy Nelson is a great example from last year. Blew up end of 2010 and in the playoffs>Epic 2011.