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c9h13no3

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Posts posted by c9h13no3

  2. Posted

    After 3-4 weeks of games under our belt, we now know who the good & bad match ups will be. Plus, you now probably have a good idea of what you have in your team. So time to make some adjustments through the trade market. Here I'll advocate 3-4 QBs to buy based on strength of schedule, and whether their role is expected to grow in the second half of the season. I also have included a couple of players you can pickup off the waiver wire, since many fantasy leagues have teams that just refuse to trade.

     

    Quarterbacks

     

    Peyton Manning - The best QB to target on the trade market right now is probably Peyton Manning. He has one of the 3 easiest schedules in the league coming up, and his team will also start to improve through the year as they adjust to playing under Manning's new offense. Use all of the "no arm strength" talk as a buy low opportunity.

     

    Philip Rivers - He currently ranks 21st in points per game, yet even in a down year last year, he finished 8th. He also has a cakewalk schedule upcoming. The price tag on Rivers should be low & ripe for the picking.

     

    Joe Flacco - He currently ranks 6th in fantasy points per game scored, and this isn't an anomaly. The offensive philosophy has shifted considerably in Baltimore. Flacco has to face Houston & Dallas in the next 3 weeks, and then he hits his bye week. If his owners are feeling down on him after those two tough matchups, and they're in a bye week crunch, steal Flacco away before he blows up with an easy schedule in the 2nd half.

     

    Carson Palmer - See a trend here with AFC West QB's? The AFC West has poor pass defenses this year, and they play the NFC South with cake matchups against Tampa, Carolina, and New Orleans. And if you're in a league that rarely gets trades done, and you need some QB help off the waiver wire, Carson Palmer is a pretty good target.

     

    Tim Tebow - Mark Sanchez sucks, and Tebow has provided QB1 value when he starts in the past. Sometimes its that simple.

  3. Posted

    As far as RB depth all i got is Kendall Hunter + Roy Helu, but im gonna try and get one of the NYG/STL backup RB's on waivers. So you're probably right trading MJD isn't a smart idea. Im just very worried about being stuck with Nate Washington as my WR2.

     

    Good call on trying to trade Smith.

    Do you think i should pair him with anyone else on my roster or just try and trade him straight up for another reciever?

    I'd prolly try to put a 2 for 2 package together with one of your RBs.

     

    Your 2nd WR spot can be filled through the waiver wire. The replacement level WRs are plentiful, and guys like Danny Amendola, McCluster, Bess or Hartline, Avery, or McCoy should be out there on your wire. Add as needed, play matchups.

  4. Posted

    MJD for Fitz + Ryan Matthews

    MJD for Gore + Nicks

    MJD for Trent + Harvin

    Those are the only ones that have a prayer, and even then they'll prolly get declined.

     

    How'd you end up with such a thin team in a 12 man PPR? It seems like you don't have a 7th, 8th, or 9th round pick.

     

    Also, you should consider trading Steve Smith, since he gets downgraded in PPR formats.

     

    I wouldn't be looking to trade a weekly difference-maker like MJD, unless I had RB depth on your bench behind him. You're better off with MJD + Replacement level scrub than you are with any 2 players that anyone will likely offer you.

  5. Posted

    I'm in a two QB league, and I waited super late on QB. How would you rank these QB's for the rest of the year? I've included each player's yards per attempt & fantasy points so far.

     

    1) Carson Palmer - 7.13 YPA, 35.5 fantasy points

    2) Matt Cassel - 7.45 YPA, 34.8 fantasy points

    3) Christian Ponder - 8.31 YPA, 25.4 fantasy points

    4) Mark Sanchez - 7.48 YPA, 30.1 fantasy points

    5) Jake Locker - 6.50 YPA, 21.4 fantasy points

     

    I think for the rest of the year, I'd rank them like that.

     

    Palmer's defense is terrible, and McFadden doesn't seem to be the same guy in Knapp's scheme. Cassel is in the same sort of situation, terrible D and a mediocre run game.

     

    Sanchez would totally be higher if I knew he could keep up the rushing TD's he's put up from the past 3 years. But with Tebow hanging around, it seems like his job security and rushing TD potential is capped.

     

    Ponder's TD totals seem capped with AP around, and he's not putting up rushing numbers like he did last year. Jake Locker just looks like a bust through two games, and I'm not sure if Kenny Britt saves him.

  9. Posted

    In week 1 & 2 (no byes, few injuries) if you're starting any of the backup SD RB's in a 12 team league, your team is terrible.

     

    I own Mathews in both leagues I'm in so far (he's just SO TASTY in round 3) and I couldn't care less if someone picks up Ronnie Brown off of waivers. I'm starting Ridley or Peyton Hillis in the two leagues I own Mathews in, and I expect them to do better than Ronnie Brown or Curtis Brinkley.

     

    Mathews has no clear handcuff right now, so unless you're in a super deep league, you're not owning any other SD running back.

  10. Posted

    You're getting ripped. Tell him you want a WR that's being drafted in the 8th round range. That's typically where Jennings is being drafted these days.

     

    So you'd want like Garcon, Blackmon, Titus Young, Kenny Britt, Meachem, Kendall Wright, Greg Little, or Denarius Moore for Rashad. Tampa Mike is an 11th round pick, so you're giving up 3 rounds of value there, and you have all the leverage in this trade. So if anything, he should be the one giving up value.

  11. Posted

    1) You drafted a QB too early unless you got Eli in like the 8th round. Trade him for upgrades at WR.

    2) Your WR's take a rankings hit in PPR (except Wayne).

    3) You need a backup TE, Witten is unlikely to go week 1. I'd suggest Rudolph/Gresham.

    4) Cut Alex Smith for a backup QB with some upside (or better yet, no backup QB).

     

    The #1 thing PPR does is devalue the QB position relative to the other ones (because QB's don't catch anything). You want to be the last team in your league to draft a QB while you're stocking up on every other position.

  12. Posted

    Its the achilles injury & the fact that the lions threw the ball more than any other team in the league last year. But I agree, he has significant upside compared to where he's being drafted.

  13. Posted

    Sigh, as much as I hate Cedric Benson this year, I totally drafted him on my team last night :(.

     

    Drafted him in the 10th round as my RB4. I guess I "like" him at that price, its still just kinda icky.

     

    Also, the people comparing him to Ryan Grant are nuts. Totally different era, different QB, and a young runner in his prime. Now the Packers have the best QB in a league which has switched over to a passing one.

  14. Posted

    Add all of that up and you could be looking at 260 carries/1,100 yards/10 TD's. That's probably best case scenario, but really not a bad option in the 6th-10th round.

    If you combined James Starks & Ryan Grant into one guy, you'd get 267 carries & 3 touchdowns. 267 carries comes to 1014 rushing yards at 3.8 yards a pop. And that assumes that Benson never misses a game, and Benson gets ALL of the workload (which is almost never the case).

     

    There's no way he reaches 1100 rushing yards and 10 TD's. Lets put money on it, I'll give you odds :)

  15. Posted

    Do not draft list IMO. There's no way he reaches the 18.2 carries per game he got in Cincinatti last year. If I were projecting a line for Benson, I'd say:

     

    190 carries, 3.8 ypc (his career average), 722 rushing yards, 160 receiving yards, 5 total touchdowns. 118.2 fantasy points, good for the 33rd overall fantasy RB in 2011. If you thought Brandon Jacobs was great last year, then I suppose you can draft Cedric Benson.

     

    He offers next to no upside, and PLENTY of downside. He's old, he's never been super talented, and Alex Green has looked pretty good in preseason. These low upside picks are exactly the types of players you stay away from in the middle to late rounds.

  16. Posted

    I'll take a stab on any late round QB with rushing ability. Jake Locker, Russel Wilson, Christian Ponder, and Andrew Luck keep finding their way onto my teams this year. Fitzpatrick always seems like a value in drafts, but I usually shoot for more upside than he offers in the late rounds when I'm drafting a backup.

  17. Posted

    Don't play in big money leagues if you have to ask forums for advice....

     

    Seems like a pretty clear spot to select a RB to me though. The baseline production for RB's is going to be crazy low in a 14 teamer. Either way you slice it, you probably need a RB in one of your first two picks. And I hate the 2nd round RB's that will come back to you in round 2 (Peterson, SJax, ect.).

  18. Posted

    Was Lynch injured in 2009? He only had 120 carries that year.

    That was the Fred Jackson year. Lynch was suspended for the first 3 games of the season because they found a gun in his car, and then lost his job when Fred Jackson hit him with some Wally Pip action over those first 3 games.

  20. Posted

    A few points on McFadden:

     

    1) Staying healthy is a skill. Its not just luck. Keeping your flexibility up, genetics, eating right, putting time in the weight room, and keeping up your rehab exercises long after you're hurt all contribute to health. McFadden can't stay healthy, and at this point its not just bad luck. He's played an average of 10 games a season, and I'd project him to play 11 or so.

     

    2) Last year I owned McFadden in every league, but I also owned Bush in every league. McFadden was a great pick when he had a clear handcuff. This year we don't know who his back up is, and whether they'll get a full time gig if DMC gets hurt. I probably won't own McFadden in any leagues this year.

     

    3) The raiders are no longer coached by Hue Jackson, and they figure to run less and throw more in the future given their personel. So people expecting his upside to be higher this year because he'll now get goal line work might be dissappointed.

  22. Posted

    Why Starks? All of the press about him from camp has been :thumbsdown:

     

    Hes is on my DND list :nono:

    I've noted the bad press in this thread, but sometimes the press doesn't mean anything. If he looks bad in preseason games, sure I'll move him down my list. But training camp hype is quite often just hype. In 2010, people were raving about how Randy Moss was in amazing shape & lighting up practices, more motivated than ever.

     

    With Starks, its just opportunity. Ryan Grant left 134 carries and 19 receptions on the table. If Starks gets half of that workload, he'll have 1160 total yards (870 rushing, 290 receiving) if he keeps his career yards per carry/reception averages where they were last year. Alex Green is getting good press, and I'm drafting him a lot too. But 1160 yards from scrimmage and 6 TD's puts Starks as the 20th ranked RB last year (a low end RB2). In round 7 with guys like Ben Tate & Mark Ingram as the other options, I find myself selecting him quite often as my RB3.

  23. Posted

    Personally, the league I play in is .5PPR with 6 points for QB tds, so that seems to give a nod to the top ones.

    Actually, since its half point per reception, it makes the value of QB's go down significantly. You should probably look to target a cheaper QB, in the Ryan, Roethlisberger, Rivers tier.

     

    It depends on the scoring system, but Steven Ridley, James Starks, Dwayne Bowe, Percy Harvin, and Michael Vick have been on my teams a lot.

  24. Posted

    I love the upside Sidney Rice offers at 9.12

    His price tag is still a LITTLE high for me, given how much of an injury risk he is. But he certainly fits the bill of a high risk, high reward player. Its just the signals the Seahawks are sending out (looking through the WR veteran scrap heap at record pace) don't bode well for Rice's health. I'd prefer to pay an 11th round pick.

  25. Posted

    I believe you are referring to Brian's father, Marty Ball Schottenheimer, who was last seen as the HC of the Chargers. Brian is his son, who was the Jets OC for these past Sanchize years....

    >_< Doh. Yeah, was totally thinking about Marty.

     

    The Jets offense hasn't been exactly pass happy either though. So when you say "QB2 with upside", that upside means he has the ability to become a QB1. For example, Jake Locker may have QB1 upside, because the Titans were 8th in the league in pass attempts last year. So the fact that they throw the ball enough, plus his rushing ability, gives him the opportunity to score a lot of points. Bradford doesn't have that opportunity (rushing ability or pass attempts), so he'd have to average something like 8.5-9 yards per attempt or something crazy high in order to return QB1 value.

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