The Late Round Flier List

[c9h13no3 0]

After round 9 in your fantasy draft, upside is all that matters. We're looking to collect lightining in a bottle. So with that in mind, lets try to find some players who have enough of a path to opportunity & upside that they're worth targeting in the late rounds.

 

Keep in mind, all of these selections come in round 10 or below, preferably undrafted when possible.

 

Quarterbacks

Carson Palmer - ADP 10.12 - Averaged more than 8 YPA last year in a new offense, has put up good fantasy numbers before. Maybe he just hated playing in Cinci?

Christian Ponder - ADP Undrafted - Had more than 20 rushing yards per game last year, has the starting gig nailed down, and Rotoworld's Silva believes he has franchise QB potential.

Jake Locker - ADP 13.11 - Has serious rushing ability, and averaged 8.2 YPA last year in limited action.

 

Running Backs

A theme with my RB & WR selections will be to take the cheaper player when there's turnover at a position. Examples of this strategy include selecting Steve Smith instead of Hixon when Plaxico shot himself a while back. Or Austin Collie instead of Pierre Garcon in 2010. If there's opportunities there, don't assume the guy who was next in line gets those opportunities.

 

Evan Royster - ADP 12.11 - All Shanahan RB's are a dice roll. So if you're rolling the dice, shouldn't you select the cheaptest option? Plus he's running with the starters.

Alex Green - ADP Undrafted - James Starks is getting bad reviews in camp, Green is getting good ones. Plus, the Packers committed a 3rd round pick to Green, so they have more invested in him than Starks.

Jonathan Dwyer - ADP Undrafted - Isaac Redman is a backup caliber talent, and Dwyer & Redman were in a RBBC in the first game Mendenhall missed in 2011. Then injuries kept him off the field for the rest of the year.

 

Wide Receivers

There are a lot of WR's worth taking fliers on, but I tried to stick with ones that had a chance for seeing 110+ targets.

 

Steve Smith - ADP Undrafted - The other Smith is a proven WR finally over microfracture surgery. Brian Quick is the trendy pick here, and Amendola has no upside, so go with the guy who is having a rebirth.

Chad Johnson/Ochocinco - ADP 11.08 - Someone in Miami is going to have value since Brandon Marshall left. Between Davone Bess, Hartline, and Ocho, I'll gamble Chad has something left at this price tag.

Josh Gordon - ADP Undrafted - The Browns had the 11th most passing attempts in 2011 in their pass heavy west coast scheme, and Gordon is already drawing reviews as the best WR in camp.

 

Honorable Mentions: Kendall Wright & Nate Washington, Leonard Hankerson, Brandon LaFell, Terrel Owens (his ADP will rise)

 

Tight Ends

The trendy TE's like Gresham & Cook, I think we've seen what they can do and they don't have super high ceilings. While they're a better bet for TE1 type production, I think the guys below have higher ceilings.

 

Kyle Rudolph - ADP 13.08 - Gettings tons of camp buzz, 2nd year TE has breakout potential.

Coby Fleener - ADP 12.09 - Rookie TE's rarely do anything, but could there be a better setup for a rookie TE?

Rob Housler - ADP Undrafted - Has TE1 caliber skills and has already been showing off in the HOF game.

 

 

So yeah, I'll be editing this list myself as I go through mocks. Thoughts?

[Cara 0]

I agree with many of these. I think Palmer could have a nice season, especially in leagues where interceptions do not count against you. He is being overlooked.

 

Jake Locker would be a great Keeper League or Dynasty League stash. People forget he played behind one of the worst offensive lines in college history his final season. People will point out his completion percentage... Well, let's see you complete a ton of passes when 4 of your 5 offensive linemen are Freshmen. lol Throw in the fact his WR's also led the league in dropped passes and you have a good QB surrounded by a bad supporting cast. I picked Locker to be the best QB from this draft class and I still believe he will be.

 

Evan Royster and Alex Green should both move up before the final preseason game. With the recent word out of Washtington being Royster is ahead of Helu, he will certainly rise up the charts. Same for Green. James Starks is getting horrible press. One good preseason game by Green and people will start comparing him to someone else of the same name.....

 

If Kyle Rudolph is healthy through the preseason, I see him ending up in the late 8th round or early 9th of most drafts. His ADP is low currently, but the drafts I have seen in the past week he has gone in the 10th and 11th, not the 13th. People are beginning to believe he could be a 60/70 catch guy this year.

 

 

Nice list overall. Get these guys now at this ADP. Their current positions are subject to change soon.

 

My two favorites would be Washington & Wright, but to each their own. Washington's ADP on MFL is actually a few slots lower than Wright. I'd be very happy with getting him there as I don't see Britt lasting very long. Not at all. Two bum knees and a checkered history. He could miss some time.....

[Laurence Maroney's Nuts 2]

Agree with a good majority of that list... I've got Locker on my watchlist as a potential stash as a QB3 in a keeper league. Have got a keen eye on Alex Green as well, as I just don't buy into James Starks.

 

One guy I'll disagree with you on though is Amendola having no upside. People seem to be forgetting him completely due to his injury, and in ppr, he's a goldmine if Bradford and him rekindle their rapport. Given his cost of acquisition, I'll take a late flier on him, and one or two weeks into the season, his target numbers will reveal whether he's a hold or whether to cut loose and trawl for another WR.

[montana 89]

Agree about Amendola.

TE - Olsen is on my late list. Carolina's TEs put up

82/995/9 last year. No Shockey this year & no solid #2 @ WR. Don't get me wrong, I'm not expecting Olsen to put up those #s. I do think 650-750 with 6-8 TDs is possible. For a #2 TE that can be had in the very late rounds? Yes please.

[Laurence Maroney's Nuts 2]

Per FFCalculator and espn adp, I think Sam Bradford and Ryan Fitzpatrick have upside as backup QBs.

 

If his high ankle injury is now taken care of, I expect Bradford to do nicely given his additions of Quick, Pead, and a healthy Amendola. (Though, I'm admittedly a bit put off by Bradford's recent comments that his ankle isn't 100%)

 

Also, injury-recovery related, I think Fitzpatrick could bounce back to be quite serviceable.

[ian Potter 9]

QB-

Palmer (ended season on good note and was missing McFadden)

Flynn (undrafted in most leagues and if he can do half of what he did in the two games at GB; he's worth being a backup.)

Locker

 

 

RB-

 

K Smith- looks to be starter. Best will be injured in a few games once he's back.

Leshoure- K Smith's injury history and Det is running out of RBs

Alex Green- Starks looks terrible

D Wilson- Good reviews in camp, Bradshaws injury history, and should fit that offense nicely. (ON bubble of 9th round)

 

WR-

 

R Wayne- terrible QB situation, moving him all around, upgrade at QB, and finished year on high note. I will own him on every team this year.

Amendola- basically undrafted and a steal in PPR leagues. Automatic 10 pts each week.

T Young- looks great in OTA's. Finished season strong. SHould be in for big year

K Wright- good camp, no britt, and their looking to be more verticle this year.

 

 

TE-

 

Tamme- should see plenty of looks from Manning

Celeck- injured all year but closed out pretty strong.

J Cook- high on him last year. closed out last two seasons strong. More verticle approach this year. Would rather own Tamme or Celeck.

Rudolph- ??? showed nothing last year but is being hyped up. Would like to see a descent game or two before I jump on the bandwagon but that offense needs some receiving help.

[c9h13no3 0]

Per FFCalculator and espn adp, I think Sam Bradford and Ryan Fitzpatrick have upside as backup QBs.

Fitzpatrick, we've seen what he can do. He's a high end QB2 or a low end QB1 depending on your league size. He's certainly undervalued as of now going as the 20th QB off the board, but I think his ceiling is pretty low. Bradford just won't get the pass attempts that he needs in Fisher's offense.

 

One guy I'll disagree with you on though is Amendola having no upside.

Amendola averages ~8 yards per catch. He is NOT an elusive WR, and he needs a TON of targets to get decent yardage. He was the 30th ranked WR in PPR formats when he got 123 targets in 2010 and I think that's pretty much his ceiling. So if the best he can do is give you a low end WR3 in PPR formats, I'm looking elsewhere. It'd need to be a PPR + Return Yards format to get me interested.

 

My two favorites would be Washington & Wright, but to each their own.

I like both players, just not sure which one to pick. I think Kendall Wright is probably the one to draft if you had to choose, as he's got more upside than Washington. If Washington gets the 121 targets he got last year, then he'll turn a big profit. I agree, they both should be getting drafted and maybe they both will end up having value. But I prefer to draft players who have a clear cut path to 100+ targets.

[Laurence Maroney's Nuts 2]

...Bradford just won't get the pass attempts that he needs in Fisher's offense...

 

Does Fisher run the show on offense when he coaches or does he let the OC run things - honest question, as I don't know. I ask because Brian Schottenheimer is now the OC with the Rams (replacing Josh McDaniels) and runs a WCO which is what Bradford excelled at his rookie year.

[montana 89]

As far as Amendola is concerned -

He may end up as a WR3 @ best, but in the 14-16 round (or later) I'm not expecting much anyway.

 

IF he returns to his form, I'd be happy with that from a pick I didn't spend much on....not too many guys you can count on to score at least 5pts. per week (or more) in a PPR that late.

[c9h13no3 0]

and runs a WCO which is what Bradford excelled at his rookie year.

Not a WCO. He runs a version of Coryell's vertical attack. Schottenheimer & Fisher will both have an effect on the offense for sure. The last time Brian Schottenheimer coached in the NFL, he was the HC for the San Diego Chargers.

 

In 2007 the Chargers ranked 26th in pass attempts with Rivers as their QB. In 2005 with Drew Brees, they ranked 13th. So he certainly has a history of not chucking the rock. Add in Jeff Fisher's old-school run focused ways, and I don't see how Bradford gets anywhere close to the 550 pass attempts he needs to compete with the QB1's.

[Laurence Maroney's Nuts 2]

Not a WCO. He runs a version of Coryell's vertical attack. Schottenheimer & Fisher will both have an effect on the offense for sure. The last time Brian Schottenheimer coached in the NFL, he was the HC for the San Diego Chargers.

 

In 2007 the Chargers ranked 26th in pass attempts with Rivers as their QB. In 2005 with Drew Brees, they ranked 13th. So he certainly has a history of not chucking the rock. Add in Jeff Fisher's old-school run focused ways, and I don't see how Bradford gets anywhere close to the 550 pass attempts he needs to compete with the QB1's.

 

I'm talkin' Bradford as QB2 with upside, hardly counting as QB1.

 

Not sure what the 2007 Chargers have to do with Brian Schottenheimer though as he was with the Jets then. And in '05 he was a QB coach, not an OC... and he's never been a HC in the NFL... for anybody.

[kcBlitzkrieg 18]

Not a WCO. He runs a version of Coryell's vertical attack. Schottenheimer & Fisher will both have an effect on the offense for sure. The last time Brian Schottenheimer coached in the NFL, he was the HC for the San Diego Chargers.

 

In 2007 the Chargers ranked 26th in pass attempts with Rivers as their QB. In 2005 with Drew Brees, they ranked 13th. So he certainly has a history of not chucking the rock. Add in Jeff Fisher's old-school run focused ways, and I don't see how Bradford gets anywhere close to the 550 pass attempts he needs to compete with the QB1's.

 

 

I believe you are referring to Brian's father, Marty Ball Schottenheimer, who was last seen as the HC of the Chargers. Brian is his son, who was the Jets OC for these past Sanchize years....

[boshek95 0]

I love the upside Sidney Rice offers at 9.12 (ADP from FFCalculator, 12 team mocks). I also like Carson Palmer quite a bit at 10.12. -Both seem like great value picks to me.

[madd futher mucker 36]

Very good reasoning, excellent list!

[c9h13no3 0]

I believe you are referring to Brian's father, Marty Ball Schottenheimer, who was last seen as the HC of the Chargers. Brian is his son, who was the Jets OC for these past Sanchize years....

>_< Doh. Yeah, was totally thinking about Marty.

 

The Jets offense hasn't been exactly pass happy either though. So when you say "QB2 with upside", that upside means he has the ability to become a QB1. For example, Jake Locker may have QB1 upside, because the Titans were 8th in the league in pass attempts last year. So the fact that they throw the ball enough, plus his rushing ability, gives him the opportunity to score a lot of points. Bradford doesn't have that opportunity (rushing ability or pass attempts), so he'd have to average something like 8.5-9 yards per attempt or something crazy high in order to return QB1 value.

[c9h13no3 0]

I love the upside Sidney Rice offers at 9.12

His price tag is still a LITTLE high for me, given how much of an injury risk he is. But he certainly fits the bill of a high risk, high reward player. Its just the signals the Seahawks are sending out (looking through the WR veteran scrap heap at record pace) don't bode well for Rice's health. I'd prefer to pay an 11th round pick.

[BoxFullofJoel 3]

great list! I learned some things

[boshek95 0]

His price tag is still a LITTLE high for me, given how much of an injury risk he is. But he certainly fits the bill of a high risk, high reward player. Its just the signals the Seahawks are sending out (looking through the WR veteran scrap heap at record pace) don't bode well for Rice's health. I'd prefer to pay an 11th round pick.

 

I actually see this differently on both fronts. 1) At the end of the 9th rd, the risk involved in selecting Rice is minimal. The upside is huge though. If he doesn't pan out, you didn't devastate your team. If he does pan out, he could make a big impact for your squad. 2) I think the acquisition of Owens may say more about the state of the rest of the SEA WR's than it does about Rice. It looks to me like the team may feel really shaky about their WRs outside of Rice and Bladwin... thus TO enters the picture.

 

IMO, Rice is the one WR on this roster that has true stud ability. Seattle wants/needs him to have a big year. I see TO as a depth player at this stage in his career (hopefully TO is ok with such a role).

[The Moz 69]

I like Jerome Simpson as a late round ( last round ) fyler has a lot of talent and if you can stash him and wait 3 games he might end up a huge steal type player

[madd futher mucker 36]

I can't resist adding a player or 2 to each category - I have no idea what any of these guys ADPs are, since I'm just into my dynasty and keeper drafts and haven't considered re-draft just yet...but I'm pretty sure these are late round sleepers.

 

QB:

I think Jay Cutler would fall somewhere in the area of a round 10 ADP (although I'm guessing his ADP has been steadily climbing). He's the only QB who could be drafted that low that I'd nominate for clear top 10 upside.

 

RB:

Kevin Smith. Although he was mentioned already by ion Potter (who also supplied a very nice list by the way) when I let Kevin Smith slip and took Toby Gerhart instead, I immediately knew it was a mistake (although Gerhart himself would also make a fine late round sleeper). There's a very good chance Smith could be the Lion's starter all season (or at least as long as he stays healthy.

But since Potter mentioned Smith first, I'll add another one: Bilal Powell of the Jets. He's finally starting to consistently flash the talent that had me sort of drooling before he entered the NFL. This training camp he has been getting some 1st team reps, has looked better at all facets - including pass protection - than Joe McKnight, and Shonn Greene has not shown himself to be anywhere close to an elite RB.

 

WR:

I'll also add two (of several you didn't mention yet) at WR: Jonathan Baldwin could come up big this year. He's got a great new work ethic and has come up huge so far. Vincent Brown would be another good choice. He can play all three WR positions, has the trust of Rivers because he will be a the right place at the right time, is flashing in training camp yet getting no love.

 

TE:

Since you already took my favorite TE sleeper when you mentioned Kyle Rudolph, I'll have to go with the almost perennial Rodney Dangerfield of TE's, Heath Miller. In 2012 with Todd Haley as OC, I see him getting back closer to his 2009 career year when he had 76 catches for 790 yds and 6 TDs.

[boshek95 0]

I actually see this differently on both fronts. 1) At the end of the 9th rd, the risk involved in selecting Rice is minimal. The upside is huge though. If he doesn't pan out, you didn't devastate your team. If he does pan out, he could make a big impact for your squad. 2) I think the acquisition of Owens may say more about the state of the rest of the SEA WR's than it does about Rice. It looks to me like the team may feel really shaky about their WRs outside of Rice and Bladwin... thus TO enters the picture.

 

IMO, Rice is the one WR on this roster that has true stud ability. Seattle wants/needs him to have a big year. I see TO as a depth player at this stage in his career (hopefully TO is ok with such a role).

 

Looks like there is a more significant possibility that the addition of Owens could have an impact on Rice than I initially thought.

 

(KFFL) The addition of WR Terrell Owens to the Seattle Seahawks could threaten WR Sidney Rice's (concussion, shoulder) playing time. Owens worked as the second-team flanker in practice Wednesday, Aug. 8, which is Rice's position. Putting Owens at flanker is a sign that the Seahawks don't necessarily trust Rice to be healthy.

[soopacee 0]

i love WR Baldwin this year....with Bowe out, he is getting all his reps, even if he comes back, Baldwin will be ready and Bowe will be rusty

[DocNiner 45]

Me,personally I can't wait to get a crack at getting this guy after the 9th round. Since he is getting some hype I'll probably have to take him in the 9th unless some wacko in the draft picks him up in 6,7or 8. Been known to happen if guys get really hyped up just before the season. I'm talking St.Louis Rams rookie WR Brian Quick. Yeah, Amendola will see a lot of targets but I think it's gonna target practice,pitch & catch between Bradford & Quick. The Rams may find themselves behind in numerous games(sorry Rams fans) and if Bradford stays healthy he's gonna find Quick to get the ball to. This guy is gonna clearly show he was Bradford's favorite target in 2012. I'm gonna try and get him in all my leagues. Just my opinion and you can disagree if you like but by season's end I think this guys' stats are gonna show he had a pretty good year. All I'm sayin'

[DrMantisToboggan 5]

Like Dwayne Allen over Fleener. Getting rave reviews outta colts camp.

[Gepetto 1,009]

Randy Moss

Kevin Smith

Doug Baldwin

Matt Flynn