Axe Elf

Ok, I started another Axe Elf Challenge league on FanDuel dot com. Since we have most of the week to fill up instead of one day, I made it a 20-team league this time (the maximum capacity for a user-created league). It's still a $5 entry fee, and the top 6 teams get paid. If you want in, but you're not sure about your lineup this early in the week, just reserve your spot by entering with any nine players for now--you can edit your lineup all the way through until like five minutes before kickoff on Sunday. If you don't have an account, here's my referral link to create one: http://www.fanduel.com/s/SX4RPATQCS You can deposit your entry fee via PayPal or by credit card, and here is the link to join the Axe Elf Challenge, once you have an account with $5 in it: http://www.fanduel.com/s/7L028NDA7O I do intend to do better than 10th place this week, so let's fill it up!

ESPN has pulled the traditional Hank Williams, Jr., opening from tonight's Monday Night Football game because he said in a TV interview this morning that Obama playing golf with John Boehner was like Hitler playing golf with Netanyahu. Really? It's not like he said Obama WAS Hitler, and even if he did, aren't we all entitled to our opinions here in the "land of the free"? I love someone's sig line on here that says something to the effect that the political correctness movement is fueled by people who are convinced that you can pick up a turd by the clean end. ESPN seems to want to polish the turd that is Hank Williams, Jr. It's ok that he's a notorious alcoholic that often cancels his shows when he's unable to perform--and that he can't count (he also stated in the same interview that Obama and Biden were like the "three" stooges)--just don't say nuthin' unpatriotic!

Last week I din't really like my calls all that much, and I ended up with my highest hit rate of the season--including a solid dozen BULLSEYE! predictions that landed within one fantasy point of the actual production. Who does that? (Axe Elf) Where else can you get such prognosticating accuracy? (Nowhere) That said, I feel pretty good about my calls for this week--which means I'll probly have my lowest success rate of the season. So there, I've jinxed myself, and I've reverse-jinxed myself; I'll let the gods of irony and retribution duke it out to determine my fate from here. QBs Sleepers Matt Ryan Green Bay has allowed the second-most yardage (335), the second-most TDs (9), and the second-most pass plays over 20 yards (23) in the league. Ryan has been consistently posting around 300 yards already, and I think he'll find JJ for a couple of deep ones this week. The Iceman cometh in around 350/3/1. Mark Sanchez How do you NOT start any QB against the worst pass defense in the NFL? Allowing almost 370 pass yards per game, including 30 passes over 20 yards (7.5 per game!), the Patriots should be helpless against Sanchez, who should have Nick Mangold returning and formidable weapons at his disposal like two receivers who can stretch the field, a solid pass-catching TE underneath, and LDT out of the backfield. Mark has been on a bit of a rollercoaster too, with two games over 300 yards and two games under 200 yards, but this week should be one of his season's best--350/3/2. Kevin Kolb Three of the four QBs who have faced the Vikings' secondary had their highest yardage totals of the season up to that time against Minnesota (Rivers, Stafford, Cassel). This pseudo-defense allows an average of 304 yards and 1.5 TDs to opposing QBs, and they will be hosting the second-best WR they have seen all year in Larry Fitzgerald (as good as Calvin Johnson is, he had his best week, yardage-wise, against the Vikings--108 to go along with his usual 2 TDs). Kolb has had to face the #6, #7, #16 and #18 passing defenses thus far, but he gets 325/3/1 in Week 5 against #28. Andy Dalton Dalton has been the epitome of a roller-coaster so far. He's had 300 yard games two of the last three weeks, with 3 pass TDs, 1 rush TD, and 2 INTs in those two weeks combined--and then sandwiched in the middle was a 157/0/2 stinker, which was, parenthetically, the last time I called him a Sleeper. Let's try this again. Jacksonville has the #14 pass defense in the NFL, but they have been helped by a monsoon and two blowout losses in which opposing offenses din't HAVE to pass much against them. Dalton had his best game of the season on the road, where he is again for another 300/2/1 outing. Donovan McNabb Only slightly higher-rated than the Vikings' pass defense is the #27-ranked Cardinals' secondary--but they could axually be a worse pass defense than the Vikes, they just had the good fortune of facing Tarvaris Jackson one week. The other three QBs facing Arizona have averaged 344 yards and 2 TDs. I don't think McNabb has the weapons to go THAT crazy on the Cardinals, but he should improve his total fantasy points (for the fourth week in a row) to something like 275/2/1 in a shootout of teams that are a combined 1-7. (Coincidentally, there are two such games this week; the Chiefs and the Colts play the other one.) Stinkers Drew Brees Aaron Rodgers and Jay Cutler had their worst outings of the season against the Panthers, who are allowing only 203 yards per game to opposing QBs--despite allowing a handful of long TD passes. Brees doesn't have the kind of big-play receivers to which Carolina has sometimes fallen victim, so he's going to have to make his living with short, underneath passes, and Carolina excels against those, handing Brees his worst outing thus far--250/2/0. Tom Brady The Jets' pass defense has held opposing QBs to some of their lowest outputs of the season--and a cumulative total of 2 (TWO!) pass TDs--but other than Romo, they haven't really faced any good QBs (McCown, Campbell, Flacco). Brady will be their most difficult test yet, though since Brady has been trending downward in yardage anyway (517, 423, 387, 226), I'm going to say the immovable object holds the irresistible force to 250/1/1. Kyle Orton San Diego has been pretty good against marginal QBs (McNabb, Cassel), but not so good against Brady. I'd say Orton belongs in the former category. Bolts hold him under 200, while he tosses 2 scores and 2 INTs. Ryan Fitzpatrick The Eagles are just outside the top 10 in passing defense, but they downright suck against the run (#30). With Fred Jackson running wild, the Bills just won't need to pass all that much--which suits Fitzpatrick just fine, as he'll be facing the league's leading QB sackers with a rookie subbing for his starting left tackle. The Bills have attempted fewer and fewer passes in recent weeks (46, 40, 34), and may go as few as 30 this week. Considering that Fitzpatrick's season average of 7.2 yards per attempt was achieved against teams like Kansas City, Oakland, and New England--not Philadelphia--he could easily be held under 200 yards with 1 TD (to Jackson) and an INT. Jay Cutler My prediction for Cutler in this game? [ClubberLang] Pain. [/Clubber Lang] Seriously. Especially if Fairley plays, I expect that Cutler will leave this game either (1) after his third INT (the Lions are tied for third in the league with 7), or (2) on a golf cart after a Fairley/Suh sandwich (Cutler has been sacked 15 times, second-most of all QBs). In light of these omens, I have to call 200/1/3 for Cutler. RBs Sleepers BenJarvus Green-Ellis The Jets are also among the league's bottom-feeders vs the run, and I'm not drinking the Ridley Kool-Aid just yet. This divisional game is not a time to go out experimenting with a new RB--the Patriots will need the never-fumble 4.0 ypc consistency of BJGE, and I think they will feed him quite a bit to make up for an inability to throw the ball effectively against the Jets' secondary. If nothing else, BJGE should have a shot at 2 scores on goalline carries alone, and I'll put him down for 70 yards besides. Joseph Addai As much as Painter has helped the passing game, he may have helped the running game more by loosening up opposing defenses just a bit. Kansas City is not strong against the run already (#26), and now they have to worry about the Colt receivers again. Addai is quietly averaging 4.6 ypc on the season, so I believe he will go over 100 combined yards vs. the Chiefs, with a score. Mark Ingram Ranked 31st against the run, Carolina may have a hard time getting the ball back from the Saints in this one. If New Orleans plays with any kind of a lead, they'd be smart to hammer Ingram at the Panthers, and keep the ball out of Cam Newton's hands. Look for Ingram's best outing so far, 85 yards and a score. Stinkers Michael Turner Green Bay is allowing just 71 yards rushing per game (2nd in the league), and Turner got just 90 yards rushing against the #11 and #14 rushing defenses combined (Tampa Bay and Seattle). A good chance of hawking a goalline TD salvages an otherwise pedestrian 50-yard outing. Maurice Jones-Drew Don't look now, but the "Bungles" are leading the NFL in total defense, and they are ranked #7 against the run, having held Peyton Hillis, Frank Gore, and Fred Jackson to a combined 165/1. The only hiccup was a 101/1 outing by Willis McGahee in Week 2--I think they just din't believe McGahee was a threat and din't gameplan for him effectively enough. They don't really have to gameplan for anyone OTHER than MJD on the Jags team, though, and like Fred Jackson, MJD's lofty ypc average (5.9 over the last 2 games and 5.1 on the season) is destined to take a hit, resulting in his worst game of the season--60 scoreless yards. LeGarrette Blount San Francisco nearly blanked one of the best RBs in the league last week (18 yards on 9 carries by LeSean McCoy; no rush TD) and has largely done the same to Cedric Benson (64/0), Felix Jones (25/0) and Marshawn Lynch (33/0). They are the only team in the league yet to allow a rush TD. Although Blount has increased his rushing yardage in every game so far this season, he's not going against the Vikings or the Colts here. Expect a total shutdown, to put it Blountly (40/0). WRs Sleepers Julio Jones JJ has 242 combined yards in his last two games, but he has yet to find the end zone. As the deep threat in the Falcons' offense, the first trend is likely to continue against the Packers' suspect secondary (see Matt Ryan), but the second streak breaks in two places as Jones scores twice on 7 catches for 150 yards. Plaxico Burress See Mark Sanchez. I believe that Burress will be the largest beneficiary of the Patriots' generosity, hauling in two TDs with 6 catches for 135 yards. Percy Harvin Arizona can't cover their opponents' best WR. Hakeem Nicks (162/1), Sidney Rice (109/0), Santana Moss (61/1) and Steve Smith (178/2) averaged 18.75 points per outing. Now McNabb to Harvin isn't on par with most of these QB/WR connections, but if Tarvaris Jackson can get 11 points for Rice against the Cards, then I'm going to say McNabb can do at least as much for Harvin; 6/70/1 in his best game so far. Josh Morgan In contrast, the Buccaneers are #23 against the pass because they seem to have problems covering the WR2 away from Aquib Talib. Julio Jones' first 100 yard outing of his career 2 weeks ago, and Pierre Garcon's Monday Night game, bear witness to this weakness. Enter Josh Morgan, the 49ers' most consistent receiver so far this season--who caught 3 balls for 65 yards and a score against a far superior Eagles' secondary last week. I'm going to hand him the game ball for his best outing yet--5 catches, 75 yards, and another TD this week. Jacoby Jones When Andre Johnson was injured at the end of 2010, Jones filled in over three games to the tune of 17 catches for 235 yards--but no TDs. I would expect something like that to happen this week, but in all truth, Arian Foster could wind up as the team's most prolific receiver. Jones could be worth a pickup and a flex start for this week--but be aware that Houston has Tennessee and Baltimore coming up, so his value may depreciate rapidly. I'll give him 5 catches for 70 yards against Oakland, though. Stinkers Wes Welker Even the best receivers have their off weeks, and playing against the best secondary in football is a good time for an undersized receiver to have one. The only time Welker played against a pass defense currently ranked higher than 22nd (Buffalo #22, Oakland #25, Miami #30, San Diego #4), he was held to his fewest yards (81) on his fewest catches (7), and it was the only game in which he did not score. Expect new lows again this week--6 catches, 70 yards, no TD. Stevie Johnson See Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Eagles' pass rush won't allow enough time for the strength of Johnson's deep routes to develop--and they can cover pretty well too. Stevie has a second consecutive stinker, posting 5 for 70 and no score. Brandon Lloyd There's that #4 pass defense again, shutting down yet another WR1. He's probly looking at something like 5 catches for 60 yards, and since he hasn't scored yet this season, this may not be the best time to look for his first. Saints' Receivers Carolina does pretty well in coverage, placing #6 vs the pass this season, despite allowing long TDs to Jordy Nelson (84 yds), Early Doucet (70 yds), Greg Jennings (49 yds), and Mike Thomas (36 yds). It's significant to note that those four receivers combined for 6 catches and 60 yards outside of their four big plays. I don't think that any of the Saints' WRs offer the kind of explosiveness needed to make a big play on the Panthers--Henderson probly has the best chance, followed by Colston--but I would be surprised if any NO receiver has the kind of day you'd be proud of counting in your starting lineup. Henderson, Colston, Meachum and Moore; I rank them in that order, but keep them all on your bench if you have any reasonable options. TEs Sleepers Owen Daniels Daniels should become an even bigger part of the Texans' passing game in the absence of Andre Johnson. His piece of the pie was already worth about 5/70 and a score each of the last two weeks; I'll bump him a dime against Oakland to make him Houston's leading non-RB receiver--7/80/1. Jermaine Gresham After Jared Cook's 1 catch for 7 yards in Week 1, Jacksonville has allowed three straight season-high performances by TEs: 6/101/1 by Dustin Keller in Week 2, 7/57/1 by Greg Olsen in the monsoon of Week 3, and 10/132/1 last week to Jimmy Graham. Maybe they won't notice that the "a" in Graham has changed to "es" and allow Gresham to have his season high as well--6/75/1. Brandon Pettigrew Chicago has allowed 23 catches, 286 yards, and 4 TDs to TEs through four games. Granted, they have all been pretty good TEs (Gonzo, Graham, Finley and Olsen), and granted also that Finley had the lion's share (get it?) of the TDs (3). Still, Pettigrew has been building momentum over the last couple of games, totaling 17 catches for 176 yards against the Vikings and Cowboys. One point against Pettigrew is that Best should play more of a role this week than he has in the last two come-from-behinders, but I'll still give Pettigrew a shot at 6 catches, 70 yards, and a score (which probly means that Calvin has to settle for one this week--shuckie darns). Kyle Rudolph More than one-quarter of all McNabb completions this season have gone to the TEs, Shiancoe and Rudolph, and the rookie Rudolph has increased his production each week of the season so far (0/0, 1/15, 3/39, 3/44). Arizona would be a good defense to have a breakout game against, so this week (considering Arizona's team colors), watch Rudolph, as the red knows, REIGN, dear! 5/60/1 Marcedes Lewis I can't believe I'm axually recommending him this week. All I can say is that Ben Watson, Evan Moore, and Vernon Davis--good TEs on teams with weak WR options--have had pretty solid outings against Cincinnati. Gabbert doesn't have much choice; 3/45/1. Stinkers Jimmy Graham Carolina has allowed opposing TEs 9 catches in 4 games. Granted, the only marquee TE amongst them was Jermichael Finley, who hogged 5 of those catches, for 68 yards, and Jeff King only had 2 catches, but they were good for 61 yards and a score. Still, Carolina is pretty good against the pass in general, and Graham is someone they can't overlook like they probly overlooked King, so I'm going to call the season low so far for Graham--5 catches for 65 yards and no score. Scott Chandler Is anybody still starting this guy? (He is still the #9 TE, you know.) Sorry folks, outside of Graham, I really don't see a whole lot of top-tier TEs that are headed for an obvious train wreck (maybe that's 'cause about five of the top 20 are already on bye this week)--so I'll just throw up this pumpkin--2/15/0. That makes a nice even 35 predictions for this week, counting all four of the Saints' WRs as stinker predictions (37 if you count the nods to Arian Foster being the Texans' leading receiver and Jahvid Best being more involved in this week's game). May you all reap the rewards of having been here to know Sunday's results on Friday, courtesy of the legendary Axe Elf!

Yeah, I know what it looks like, but it was supposed to be a play on "bow down"--as in, bow down to that 2nd TD catch by Bowe. Best catch of the year.

An aberration? Dear child, have you not been paying attention to the main point of my contention--which is that Bowe has benefitted from the absence of Charles? His current performance is adequately explained by that very fact! I suppose, if Charles was being covered by a cornerback who is now free to concentrate instead on Bowe.

Maybe this will work... http://www.flickr.com/photos/axeelf/6230488587/

So I'm in this 12 team league where I own all 12 teams. This week, I picked up Ryan Torain from waivers, and then promptly traded him to myself for Arian Foster. If that wasn't bad enough, I turned right around and offered myself David Clowney for--wait for it--Calvin Johnson! I couldn't believe I accepted, but I did, and right away, I started complaining about how this was all B.S. and that I, as the commish, needed to take action right away to prevent me from stealing all of my entry fees and blah blah blah. Well, just to make myself happy, I put it to a league vote--not letting myself vote for the two teams involved in the trade, of course, and wouldn't you know it--I tied with myself 5-5 to allow the trades. So now I'm in the unenviable position of having to decide the matter myself, but it seems kind of like a conflict of interest to be deciding on a trade in which I am both of the parties involved. I think I'm leaning toward a veto here, and I know how difficult it would be to prove that I colluded with myself, but I have a feeling that this is as close as it gets. I'm just afraid that I'll quit in disgust and leave many of my teams with what amounts to a bye in the week that they play me, which wouldn't be fair to me either. What say you?

Aberrations.

Good call. Never mind, I guess you don't support image tags.

I don't usually bother with these threads, but it kinda looks like fun, so maybe I'll have a go... Here's a big 4Q2 to Greg Jennings, whose late long TD reception outscored Julio Jones by just enough to cost me FIFTEEN DOLLARS on FanDuel this week. Fortunately, I'm still taking home $62 (assuming that Brandon Pettigrew doesn't have something like 120/2 tonight), but still... Gosh darnit! This really makes me angry! I'm so dagnabbed irritated I could just poop! I hope bad things happen to all your pets! Hey, you're right, this does help.

Another somber lesson in the consequences of not reading and heeding Axe Elf's Sleepers & Stinkers every week. Hopefully we can learn from history so that we are not doomed to repeat it.

I'll give you credit for enough maturity to avoid falling victim to such hyperbole.

Well, I'll settle for merely good. I wouldn't want to get conceited or anything.

Ok... 1/13/0 4/45/0 2/33/0 3/16/1 1/3/0 2/53/0 5/68/0 Impressive! This year, Week 1, with Charles still in... 2/17/0 Starting Week 2... 5/101/0 4/67/1 5/107/1 See the difference? They really should offer remedial classes for fantasy football.

Shown up in it? I originated the thing! Once I hand down the stone tablets, so to speak, clarify any questions my acolytes might have, and the games begin, there's really no reason to revisit it. When the games are over on Monday Night, I will score the predictions and report the results back to you, as I always do. I've done the same thing every week; I would have thought you might have noticed by now. P.S. Unless Axe Elf says it's ok.

LOL! One in which EVERYONE else in both of the threads devoted to the topic advised the starting of Brady over Newton--except one... They are both we.

[AlMichaels] He did WHAT?!?!? [/AlMichaels]

Any questions?

There was some Junior Elf on here that axually called Baldwin this week. As great as I may be, I must also recognize flashes of potential amongst my proteges. Well done, whoever you were!

And Bowe owners should forever lay their sacrifices upon the Altar of Torn Knee Ligaments for their gods' concurrent cursing of Charles and blessing of Bowe.

Once again, Axe Elf stands alone as the sole fount of fantasy wisdom, like a lighthouse above the rocks of popular folly, leading anyone who will attend to his light through the narrow straits of lineup pitfalls into the safe harbor of championship strategies.

Apparently not.

It's a good thing Charles got hurt, or the cat would have had the better end of the deal.

Join the club.

Lots.