The Real timschochet

https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-kicks-off-celebration-of-america-by-declaring-his-hatred-for-democrats/ My first thought was: I didn’t realize Trump posted in this forum.

This too shall pass

I don’t know if ten more meteorologists would change anything. But I would rather have them. I said that at the time and I’m repeating it now. On issues of public safety I would prefer to go overboard. I don’t understand the desire by conservatives to cut these programs.

Once again you’re completely wrong. It would be irresponsible to blame this on Trump at this point and it’s unlikely we’ll ever know for sure. But at the same time cuts to the National Weather Service, FEMA, and other agencies WERE made, and experts warned us a few months ago that these cuts would make us less safe and lead to more deaths. We can’t just ignore that now. In addition, for decades now, long before Trump, conservatives have, whenever in power, attempted to roll back government agencies that fight these sorts of disasters: you guys are ALWAYS for cutting them down, reducing their manpower, reversing the restrictions they impose to protect society. This fact shouldn’t be ignored either.

I only ask because once again, just like every other time they are in power, despite warning us (correctly) that our current level of national debt is unsustainable and will eventually lead us to a catastrophe…they are voting to increase it: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/05/15/gop-tax-deficit-bill/ Trump’s new “beautiful bill” will increase the debt by 2.5 trillion over the next 10 years. So do they REALLY care?

You’re really dumb about this. Never once did I predict crash. I wrote we will be facing really bad times. The higher the tariffs are the worse off we will be. The longer the tariffs are in place the worse off we will be. If Trump backs off again (hopefully he will) things won’t be as bad. I’ve been consistent about this, and consistently right.

I’m not wrong: https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2025/06/11/politics/deportations-trump-polling-analysis Americans oppose deporting people who have a job, 56-41%.

Right and wrong is not a question of popularity. But even so you’re incorrect; it is NOT a winning issue per polling. The public wants the border secure. They want violent criminals deported. They do NOT want all undocumented people deported. Only a minority wants that (though perhaps in this forum it’s a majority.)

You’re right about time. It really doesn’t make a difference to me how long they’re here. Look you and I obviously disagree about this issue. That’s fine. I’m only pointing out that if ICE continues to attempt to enforce this particular law on people who are not violent felons, there’s going to be violence. I don’t approve of that; I want peaceful protests leading to political change through elections, but violence is inevitable.

Many people believe that arresting and deporting nonviolent people who have been here for decades is unjust, no matter how they arrived. I happen to share that conviction.

I agree it won’t be justified, I’m just saying it will be inevitable. When the police act unjustly, some of the public will act unjustly too. That’s simply a reality.

There is no justification for violence at this time. But if ICE keeps arresting undocumented people who are not violent criminals, it’s going to happen.

That’s not at all what he said.

Trump already tried to blame Biden for this and then changed his mind.

I think it’s unlikely that budget cuts could ever be proven to have contributed to this horrible tragedy. Even so, I would prefer to spend more money on FEMA rather than less, and I was dismayed by the cuts.

I don’t think it’s your intent to be racist here (at least I hope not) but that’s what you’re being. It’s pretty disgusting. I can’t imagine you saying this in public to a black person without risking being punched in the mouth, deservedly so.

Though I disagree with your view here it makes me think there may be room for compromise. But I’m not sure. So I would like you to be specific about the only aspect of this that truly matters: what kind of legislation that in any way touches on or restricts trans would you support? What kind of legislation would you oppose?

I continue to reject your characterization of the vast majority of medical opinion as “political groups.” I think this characterization is actually more concerning than your views on this specific issue, because it mirrors how the conservative right tend to think about climate change, COVID-19, the mainstream media, and a host of other issues: basically it seems to me that whenever you guys encounter a truth or bit of evidence that either is contradictory to your worldview or at the very least makes it uncomfortable, you immediately transform it to opinion, usually opinion with a political agenda opposed to your own and thus OK to ignore.

Thanks Jerry, but I don’t care. To me it’s like having a Jew deny the Holocaust. Some have (famously, Bobby Fischer) but that doesn’t take away the truth of the event. Kanye West has argued that American chattel slavery was a good thing. Shall I consider his comments on the subject to be more merit worthy than others because he is a black man? I don’t. I didn’t have any personal opinion on the question of the explosion of the number of trans people until quite recently. What I read, from most medical experts and psychiatrists and psychologists, is that it’s a result of people feeling free to express their innermost feelings, that the same numbers were always there but hidden. This intuitively made sense to me. I also read a minority of opinion that it was a “social contagion.” Since this opinion was mostly spread from people whom I judged to be bigoted against trans (and before that bigoted against homosexuality) I treated this minority opinion with a great amount of skepticism. I still do. But in the end I regard this as a scientific question, equivalent to the best way to land an airplane. When the majority of experts change their opinion on this subject I will as well.

Yes I’ve written in the past that this was all for show. So far that’s the case. I wrote it for a few reasons, one of the main reasons being that I didn’t believe that even Trump or his followers would be insane enough to actually attempt mass deportation of all undocumented people- or evil enough because that’s what it frankly would be. I may have been wrong about that. This amount of money spent on the ICE thugs is itself insane, and as I wrote, extremely scary. Still I will continue to hope that in the end we are not the kind of people that MAGA seems to want us to be.

https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/20/investing/us-stocks-walmart-outlook/index.html Get ready for hard times ahead. Some of us tried to warn you that these tariffs were going to cause a lot of pain and ugliness. And it’s only just beginning…

I’m aware. That’s why I left. I believe strongly in open immigration (not open borders exactly) and free trade.

I can’t speak about the libertarians you know. I abandoned libertarianism about 15 years ago when many of its members turned anti-immigrant.

Yep that must be it.

Which is all Democrats in office,