The Real timschochet

Tonydead is easily the most insecure guy here. He constantly makes a point of letting us know how hot his wife is, and how much money he has. In addition he rooted for the LA fires, and seems to enjoy it when people suffer.

No I don’t. But I also don’t think those negotiations will turn out to be worth the price. Now I could be wrong about that and I certainly hope that’s the case since it’s too late anyhow. But my position, as of right now, is that this whole thing was unnecessary pain. I base that partly on the fact that, in an apparent panic over what this whole thing was doing to the bond market, Trump lifted most of the tariffs long before the negotiations were completed (or in most cases even started.) What does that tell you?

You’re correct. It’s simply my opinion. But it’s not based on guesswork. There is a reason why most economists are opposed to what Trump has done. But there’s another aspect of your argument that I have to take issue with: you and many others continue to believe that Trump has thought this through, that he’s making educated decisions, considering all factors, looking at long term benefits, etc. This view of Donald Trump as the sharp “art of the deal” businessman who plays 4d chess seems entrenched among his supporters; no amount of evidence will ever shake their belief in this. I think the reality is quite different: Trump makes arbitrary decisions on the spur of the moment based on whim, ego, fear, anger. He doesn’t look ahead, doesn’t listen to reason, doesn’t consider details, reacts quickly. This is one of the main reasons I didn’t want him as President; I don’t think he’s competent for the job at hand.

It increases the odds.

Agree with all of this. But it really doesn’t apply to this situation. Trump put up these tariffs unnecessarily, and apparently without much consideration of the consequences. If a recession or anything close to that happens, it will be due to his decision-making. And the people that will struggle the most will not have put themselves in that situation, as you wrote: Trump will have put them in that situation, and they will be correct to blame him. So in this case your generalities, which are largely true, aren’t at all relevant.

I agree with you. But this is a far cry from “the tariffs will make things great.” That, I don’t believe.

That…seems awfully unlikely.

So at the moment we still have, brand new since last week: 125% tariff with China 10% tariffs on all nations 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum 25% tariffs on all auto imports These stay in place despite the pause. Anyone feeling liberated yet?

Yeah OK. @The Psychic Observer you are so right.

Trump acknowledges that he may have caused a recession, but wants to avoid a depression: https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2025/04/10/trump-acknowledged-he-could-cause-a-recession-but-just-didnt-want-a-depression-according-to-wsj.html

Apparently the markets still don’t like what’s going on because of what’s happening with China. And many believe recession is still on its way because the damage is already done.

Maybe. But the problem is that they’re our third largest trading partner. We can’t start a trade war with them without tremendous disruption. Is it worth it to us to do that anyhow because (a) they’ve been so unfair and (b) it might convince them to change their ways? Some folks would argue yes, but I’m not one of them. I don’t think we gain.

It’s not even debatable! Lol

“Second handers” is a phrase from The Fountainhead, not Atlas Shrugged, gb.

We also don’t know who came to the table, what they’re offering (if anything), and what will benefit us. So it’s wise to wait and see. But a question: if the point of the tariffs was to create pressure in order to get other nations to agree to new deals, then why relieve the pressure before any deals are done or even negotiated? That’s a little mystifying to me.

I think this is wise. If trade deals are negotiated to our benefit (meaning lower tariffs on all sides) I will happily congratulate President Trump. Let’s see what actually happens. Leaving the tariffs in place would have been a catastrophe. The China tariffs, as they stand at this moment, will be a catastrophe. But- 10% across the board tariffs are bad in themselves. It’s not good for our economy to have a 10% tax on all imports. It’s stupid.

Unless Trump caves on China too we will still have a recession. But I think he will cave. (He’ll call it a victory.)

The complaints are the only thing that got Trump to cave. And there were no overreactions. If anything, the threat to our economy was understated.

Don’t forget Marshall Petain.

Turns out the biggest Panican of all was Donald Trump himself! For which I am grateful…

I’m optimistic about this too. Surrendering on the tariffs is a good start. Now if we make a deal with China prices should start to come down.

I’m convinced that there’s going to be some kind of deal coming with China, or at the very least a de-escalation. China is our third largest trading partner. Too much money is on the line. In a week, possibly two, possibly less…this will be resolved. I’m much more optimistic than I was this morning. Somebody smart got into Trump’s ear, told him he had to cave, and he did.

Hopefully the 90 day pause becomes a permanent pause.

Trump would make such a great World War II French general wouldn’t he? Marshall Petain would be envious. Anyhow, good stuff!

Dow up 2200 points