The Real timschochet

In this thread there have been several justifications of the tariffs based on the idea that we have to do something different because the national debt is so large (though the connection between tariffs and the national debt is tenuous at best). However the newly proposed Republican budget legislation increases the debt by 5 trillion dollars over the next 10 years. As usual with Republicans, they are choosing to cut taxes without cutting sufficient enough spending to cover it.

That’s a different issue and it’s mostly for show. You need to look at the big picture here. I’ve said all along that this whole mass deportation scheme is just an act, that it will never happen. You think Trump is really going to fock the farmers, restaurant owners, hotel owners? Never. This scheme is his way of letting the MAGA folks down gently.

Mine too. Actually I’ve gone further: I’ve always thought that even if an undocumented immigrant gets legal status, they should NEVER in their lifetime have the right to vote. I mean in the end they came here illegally and there’s got to be some kind of penalty for that, right? I’m not in favor of deportation but I don’t think they should be rewarded, ever, with the right of political representation. That’s my stance though I don’t know how that would work legally.

Raiders and I agree on an immigration issue! There is hope for the planet.

Now I think you’re being too cynical. If the government truly wanted to spend the money and time going after undocumented workers in our industries it wouldn’t be that difficult. There isn’t a need for subterfuge.

Based on that math OK. I’d actually be willing to wait 10 years or 20. So long as they have legal status and are safe from deportation so long as they don’t commit a violent crime.

And in your next post coming up, I’m sure you’ll explain what I got wrong and why my take is dumb.

Well I don’t know about $50k- that would take forever (perhaps that is your goal?) But I don’t mind the general idea. We can compromise on this.

OK we disagree. But let me show you the flaw in your argument: suppose the guy claims he is a citizen. The state says he isn’t. How do we know? We know by having an independent court look at the evidence. Can you see now why this is important? Whats to stop a government, Democratic or Republican, from deciding that anyone they don’t like isn’t a citizen? If they can avoid going to court, how can anyone stop it? Thats why we need due process for everyone be they citizen or not.

It isn’t. Things need to be done the right way.

I agree with you. If the solicitor general says he’s an MS-13 member and he says he isn’t then I assume he probably is. But “probably” isn’t good enough for our justice system. You gotta prove it in court. Now that should be relatively easy to do, but the Trump Adminstration chose to bypass that step. And I have a real problem with that. I don’t care if this dude is Charles Manson or Pol Pot. We have a system. Don’t you have a problem with this?

We expect the government to behave better than violent thugs.

I’m very glad that prices have gone down. But… 1. It would be hard for me or anyone else to explain what Trump has to do with it, if anything it’s a continuance of Biden’s policies already in place. Whatever Trump’s policies have been in relation to this issue (deregulation? More oil drilling?) it’s surely too soon for them to have any noticeable effect. 2. Unless Trump caves on the China tariffs, the tariffs on steel and aluminum and cars and 10% on all countries, prices are going to spike back up, probably higher than they ever were under Biden. This is almost an economic certainty.

Tonydead is easily the most insecure guy here. He constantly makes a point of letting us know how hot his wife is, and how much money he has. In addition he rooted for the LA fires, and seems to enjoy it when people suffer.

No I don’t. But I also don’t think those negotiations will turn out to be worth the price. Now I could be wrong about that and I certainly hope that’s the case since it’s too late anyhow. But my position, as of right now, is that this whole thing was unnecessary pain. I base that partly on the fact that, in an apparent panic over what this whole thing was doing to the bond market, Trump lifted most of the tariffs long before the negotiations were completed (or in most cases even started.) What does that tell you?

You’re correct. It’s simply my opinion. But it’s not based on guesswork. There is a reason why most economists are opposed to what Trump has done. But there’s another aspect of your argument that I have to take issue with: you and many others continue to believe that Trump has thought this through, that he’s making educated decisions, considering all factors, looking at long term benefits, etc. This view of Donald Trump as the sharp “art of the deal” businessman who plays 4d chess seems entrenched among his supporters; no amount of evidence will ever shake their belief in this. I think the reality is quite different: Trump makes arbitrary decisions on the spur of the moment based on whim, ego, fear, anger. He doesn’t look ahead, doesn’t listen to reason, doesn’t consider details, reacts quickly. This is one of the main reasons I didn’t want him as President; I don’t think he’s competent for the job at hand.

It increases the odds.

Agree with all of this. But it really doesn’t apply to this situation. Trump put up these tariffs unnecessarily, and apparently without much consideration of the consequences. If a recession or anything close to that happens, it will be due to his decision-making. And the people that will struggle the most will not have put themselves in that situation, as you wrote: Trump will have put them in that situation, and they will be correct to blame him. So in this case your generalities, which are largely true, aren’t at all relevant.

I agree with you. But this is a far cry from “the tariffs will make things great.” That, I don’t believe.

That…seems awfully unlikely.

So at the moment we still have, brand new since last week: 125% tariff with China 10% tariffs on all nations 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum 25% tariffs on all auto imports These stay in place despite the pause. Anyone feeling liberated yet?

Yeah OK. @The Psychic Observer you are so right.

Trump acknowledges that he may have caused a recession, but wants to avoid a depression: https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2025/04/10/trump-acknowledged-he-could-cause-a-recession-but-just-didnt-want-a-depression-according-to-wsj.html

Apparently the markets still don’t like what’s going on because of what’s happening with China. And many believe recession is still on its way because the damage is already done.

Maybe. But the problem is that they’re our third largest trading partner. We can’t start a trade war with them without tremendous disruption. Is it worth it to us to do that anyhow because (a) they’ve been so unfair and (b) it might convince them to change their ways? Some folks would argue yes, but I’m not one of them. I don’t think we gain.