The Real timschochet

This won’t mean anything to them. They WANT to believe that Biden is senile- it makes their willingness to vote for Trump slightly more palatable to themselves.

Trump says he may lose the first debate on purpose: https://www.yahoo.com/news/

I’m starting this thread to discuss the Presidential race, trying to determine who has got the advantage. Not interested in arguing about who I or anyone else WANTS to win, there’s plenty of threads for that, Only an up to date breakdown of who is likely to win. So here are my thoughts as of May 6, 2024, based on what I’m reading: 1. It’s pretty much a dead heat between Biden and Trump. 2. Trump has a slight lead among all voters. Biden has a slight lead among likely voters. However both leads are within the margin of error, 3. Trump has a slight lead in most of the battleground states. But this lead was significantly larger 4-5 months earlier; Biden has closed the gap. 4. RFK JR and the other third party candidates currently have about 8% of the vote. Conventional wisdom suggests that these are votes that Biden would otherwise receive but that is not clear. History suggests that this number will go down as the election gets closer and that come November, it will be nowhere near 8%. 5. Some polling suggests that if Trump is convicted in the hush money trial that will lose him a significant amount of support. I am extremely skeptical of this. 6. On the main issues that voters claim to be most concerned with, such as the economy, crime, inflation, the border, international affairs, Trump has a commanding 10-12 point advantage in all of these issues. Biden leads in character (though not by much) and on abortion (by a lot.). There’s a lot more but any thoughts on this so far?

You know buddy I have pretty strong views for sure but on serious stuff like this I’m pretty honest. Or at least I try to be.

Sure but the State of the Union was a speech. He’s not thinking off the cuff.

No.

I believe the upcoming debate will prove you wrong. This won’t be a speech and if Biden is as senile as some of you believe, he won’t be able to hide it. I’m going to watch carefully (though a few days after) and offer an honest opinion: if I think he’s lost it I will let you know. On the other hand, I hope that if you guys are confronted with a mentally alert Biden you will acknowledge it (even if you disagree with what he has to say.)

Dont feel bad for him. Chances are he will have another 4 and half years to prove you wrong.

How could anyone want this? What a catastrophe this would be.

Zionism is the belief that the Jewish people deserve a national home for themselves, and that home is the State of Israel. Zionism does not seek to relocate the Palestinian people, or any other people. It’s not fascist. It does not deny the rights of any other people, or the right of Palestinians to establish their own state. Zionism is a secular idea. It was originated by Theodor Herzl, a secular Jew who did not practice religion. The State of Israel was founded by secular Jews, essentially atheists, who regarded Judaism as a nationality and not a religion. One can be pro-Zionist without supporting the current government of Israel. One can be anti-Zionist without being anti-Semitic.

https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/supreme-court-abortion-pill-decision-06-13-24/index.html This is good news

You have now brought up this subject in several threads, none of which are related to the topic at all. Anti-semitism from pro-Palestinian types is not a new thing. It should be condemned when it occurs. It has no bearing on this topic, or on Trump’s conviction, or on the race between Biden and Trump.

Sounds like the Trump immunity decision will be released tomorrow. Should be interesting

Yes

Also this is a shameful interpretation by you.

Which makes it even worse, doesn’t it? Teen suicides as a result of bigotry towards transgenders are all too common.

That’s been our history from the beginning. And we haven’t collapsed yet.

1. I’ve addressed Chicago violence elsewhere. It has nothing to do with this topic. 2. There is nothing funny about the violence and bigotry that transgenders face in this country. 3. Your own ignorance and bigotry contributes to this sad situation.

DeSantis would have made a terrible President just as he has been the worst governor of Florida in modern American history. However he would not have been a threat to our democratic institutions, so he is infinitely preferable to Trump. And agree he would be way ahead of Biden right now.

My logic is this: it is not safe in this country to be a transgender person. Too much ignorance, too much bigotry, too much violence against them, especially in rural areas (and yes @Fireballer that includes Oklahoma.) San Francisco is responding to that by declaring “At least here we will do our best to try and love you, accept you, and keep you safe.” Good for them. And the hell with anyone who finds issue with this.

53% isn’t a toss up. It’s close but it’s an edge for Biden. And I’m not ignoring anything. I post good stuff for Biden and bad stuff for Biden. Are you expecting me to post everything? Personally I still don’t feel good about this race. I have no clue how it will go but Trump is doing way too well to make any Biden supporter feel confident. Still, currently, the trends are moving in the right direction. Hopefully that will continue.

Not by me.

I wish I hadn’t been correct about that. But look what happened to Nex Benedict: https://www.advocate.com/news/transgender-student-death-raichik-walters#toggle-gdpr

Your anecdote doesn’t change the statistics. Scroll up and read them.

No. Most of the violence comes from heterosexuals: family members, acquaintances, high school students. Mainly ignorant people who are taught that transssexualism is sick and perverted, against “nature” and “God’s law”, and feel justified in their cruelty.