The Real timschochet

You’re trying to respond to one of the two biggest anti-Semites on this board.

“Unlike Donald Trump, I don’t believe that people who disagree with me are the enemy. He wants to put them in jail. I want to give them a seat at the table.” That was Kamala Harris tonight. I believe her. I get that many of you don’t. But even if you don’t believe her I think you know that Donald Trump does NOT think this way.

Excited about this news if true. I have no idea if Soros is on my side, but I’m certainly on his.

Gee you were so angry when I stopped posting ten days ago. I thought you might calm down a little. But you still seem unhinged. Too bad.

When did Kamala call Trump “Hitler”? I think I missed that. I also missed when Kamala attacked half the American people. Trump, however, has disparaged half the American people many many times.

Apparently there’s some kind of shenanigans going on with this Polymarket betting site: https://fortune.com/crypto/2024/10/30/polymarket-trump-election-crypto-wash-trading-researchers/ Something called “wash trading” which makes the odds suspicious. I don’t understand it myself. I’m hoping that it means this race might be much closer than Trump as a 68% favorite. But I don’t know.

It seems a little suspect and disingenuous to me that Donald Trump can constantly refer to Democrats as Communists and “the enemy within”, and talk about using the military against them, and yet this comment by Biden is so insulting that the American public is going to rise up in anger and reject Harris because of it. It was a dumb comment for sure. But the hypocrisy and double standard here is overwhelming and hopefully folks will see through it.

Not that this wouldn’t make me happy but it also depresses me a little. To think that all of the offensive things that Trump himself has said over the years and even recently didn’t move the needle but some comment made by a comedian most people had never heard of does? If I was Puerto Rican I would be pissed off about Trump resisting sending aid to the island in 2017 much more than I would about this story. According to what I’ve read, they were willing to forget about 2017 before this garbage thing, and you know why? Because when they got their stimulus checks in 2020, it had Donald Trump’s name on it. And apparently that’s all it took.

Well you’re right. I don’t pretend to. But I know that there is a flaw in your assertions. Because if winning all 3 blue states is +810 for Kamala then Trump winning the election should be much greater than -215. (I’m not saying there is a flaw in the betting odds, though that might be true as well- I’m saying there is a flaw in YOUR analysis.)

OK. I think you understood me. I will stick with my prediction.

You are quite correct that I will be quite shocked if Trump wins bigly. And I will certainly credit you if that happens. I don’t expect it.

Hey man!

Sure I’ve been reading the thread when I can (and others.) Just haven’t had time to post. Frankly I don’t believe you when you say you wish I would take others with me; your whole existence here is responding to people you disagree with. If we all left you would have no purpose. You already made your math point earlier this morning. But I know that you know that elections don’t work that way. This isn’t a trifecta. If Harris wins Michigan she is likely to win Wisconsin. If she wins Wisconsin she is likely to win Pennsylvania. The odds don’t keep increasing the way you project.

Hey there, checking in. Well, look if my behavior was indefensible then I can hardly defend it, right? In any case I apologized for it months ago so I don’t see the point in looking back. Been really busy this last week and it was good to spend time away from here. I still don’t know how much time I will have to post now. Not much I expect. I remain optimistic about Tuesday. Optimism is not the same as certainty. I’m amazed how so many people here (on both sides!) seem certain about the outcome. I’m not even certain it leans in one direction. I sure wouldn’t be betting on it at this point (but then, despite my seeming reputation here I’m not really a gambler.) Nonetheless I predict Harris wins Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona and Nevada, all by close numbers, and the Presidency. She loses Georgia and North Carolina. Thats my final prediction and I’ll stick with it. I will eat my crow willingly (not happily) if I’m wrong. Other thoughts can wait.

Also- as of this moment I’m taking a break from this forum for a few weeks- I’ve got work and a couple of other things I really need to focus on and I’m spending way too much time obsessing on this election. No worries- I’ll be here the week of the election and ready to eat my crow with a smile if need be. Until then, everybody stay well.

Good morning. I was almost convinced by @Horseman last night to change the title and give Trump the edge. Then a new poll comes out this morning giving Harris the lead in the three rust belt states: https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-kamala-harris-polls-swing-states-rust-belt-1971613 So here’s the deal: three weeks to go, unless the aggregate polls for either Harris or Trump show a 3 point lead or more in the states that matter, the title of this thread will continue to be “dead heat” because that’s what it is. I‘m still optimistic about a Harris victory because I think there’s a hidden Harris vote out there. I’ve got no evidence, no proof to back that up. And I’m certainly not guaranteeing anything. I’m just optimistic. If Trump wins I’m not gonna cry and I’m not leaving the country. Sh!t happens, we survive.

And I was right each time. Now though things have changed and Trump is a 2 point favorite according to them. Do you feel safe now? Assured your guy will win? I don’t think he will.

Do you feel really confident with the news that, per 538c Trump wins the election 52 times out of 100? Does that lock it up for you?

That made me laugh. You usually don’t so good job this time.

Sorry guys I hate to be the party pooper (not really) but almost none of this stuff is going to happen. First off, it’s still more likely than not that Kamala Harris will be our next President. In the event that Trump wins it’s still more likely than not that he has a Democratic House. BUT- for the sake of argument let’s assume that Jon is right and it’s Trump with a Republican House and Senate and nobody to stop them. History strongly suggests that they will govern terrified, meaning that they will be unwilling to do ANYTHING that could possibly make anyone upset. So what it means is this- more tax cuts. And that’s it- no spending cuts, no significant changes. Security at the border will be for show. No way is Congress going to piss off agriculture by actually deporting massive numbers of undocumented immigrants. Not gonna happen. Now tariffs that WILL happen because Trump doesn’t need Congress. But I suspect that Trump will try this and then quickly give them up after business people complain. So again: another tax cut. That’s about it domestically. Foreign policy is a completely different subject and I have a lot of concerns there.

I didn’t make up any numbers. I linked to a survey.

Kamala has stayed consistently ahead but I’m trying to be kind to the Maga crowd.

This is supposed to be a dinner to tell jokes, not the forum for serious discussion. Personally I think she should have gone but I doubt it will hurt her. Nobody really cares.

I did not report @Cdub100. I only report those who post personal information about me, and first I ask them politely to delete it.

Many many Catholics are pro-choice. In this country, 60% of Catholics are pro-choice: https://www.npr.org/2024/04/12/1244156165/abortion-catholics-pope-francis-church-pew-research