The Real timschochet

Around 2/3rds of it. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Munich_Agreement

It seems like in all my posts in this forum you would have encountered my concerns already. But here goes, in no particular order: 1. I think he’s going to impose new high tariffs that will severely damage or collapse the economy. 2. I think he’s going to force Ukraine to surrender to Russia. 3. I think he’s going to try and deport millions of people, among them personal friends of mine. I also think he’s going to separate families and cause terror to innocent people. 4. I think he’s going to reverse Biden’s actions to try and control climate change, and this is going to lead to more human misery on a grand scale. Theres more. A lot more. I hope I’m wrong about some of this or all of it. But the above represent my personal biggest concerns.

They do if you’re guarding a castle.

Nope. The polls were wrong. I wished President Trump well and hoped for the best, that he would succeed in making things better for the country. If he wins I’ll do the same this time.

Yeah that must be it.

She is.

I’m scared to death too. Who isn’t scared at this point, if you care about this country and think that a second term for Trump would be a total disaster? Of course I’m scared. She has the lead. I think she will win. But it’s tenuous. It’s way too close. Nobody knows what’s going to happen. I’m nervous as Hell.

You keep repeating the same thing. It’s all from Polymarket and it’s based on their (IMO) overreaction to couple polls from Pennsylvania (which don’t represent the majority of polls there.)

Obama campaigning in Pennsylvania tonight.

Whose design?

I won’t have any excuses. If Trump wins then some of the polls were wrong. That’s all.

Been busy all day. Just noticed it now. I was going to correct it but I kind of enjoy the jokes.

I used 538: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/pennsylvania/ Aggregate for Pennsylvania is Kamala by 1. Vast majority of polls has Kamala ahead. So I don’t know what to tell you. She’s ahead. She’s winning. If these numbers hold she win the election. Sorry to disappoint you guys.

I don’t need to try to sound smart. Especially when I’m responding to you.

He’s not connected with 538 anymore. And I pointed out his comment because I was pointing out that if the YouGov poll is correct that’s great news for Harris. And dude don’t even try to tell me how to analyze polls. I’m better at this in my sleep than you could ever be.

Each morning (assuming I have time) I look up polling and post the latest ones that strike me as important. Sometimes they favor Trump like yesterday. Mostly they favor Harris. That’s because Harris is winning. If you think that’s cherry picking oh well.

You seem upset this morning. So here is a hint for you since you appear to be incapable of subtlety: if I use a phrase like “hey man” then whatever I write next is most likely tongue in cheek.

He’s not making the comment based on one poll or aggregate polling, he’s talking about Election Day. If Harris wins the popular vote by 4 points she will win the election.

Hey man in this thread I am just trying to provide an objective view.

I’d say way less since hes much more mentally incompetent now (though, truthfully, given his terrible ideas that might not be a bad thing.)

Yeah whatever. Like you know anything about serious.

Harris takes 4 point national lead in YouGov poll this morning: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4926117-harris-leads-trump-economist-yougov-poll/amp/ According to Nate Silver, a 4 point national lead gives Harris a 95%+ chance of winning the election.

No that has nothing to do with panic. Thats been planned for weeks. You’re buying into conservative spin and it’s been mostly wrong.

The two I posted yesterday. Along with the other swing state polls I posted. If there are new ones I missed feel free to post them if you really care about it.

So there’s a lot of deceptive headlines out there. Check this one out: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4922690-democrats-nervous-kamala-harris-campaign/ The headline is: “Democrats start to hit the panic button”. Sounds ominous, no? But then you read the article: Democrats are happy they’re ahead nationally but are worried about how close the battleground states are. Nobody knows how this will end up. Well, yeah. But there’s not a single mention of panic in the article.