The Real timschochet

Dont you live in New York? You’re voting for her anyway.

He’s not qualified now. His record as president makes him less qualified than Harris would be if her only job has been at McDonalds.

New poll this morning has Harris once again ahead in Pennsylvania - this time by 2 points https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-leads-donald-trump-pennsylvania-1966837 Thats 8 out of 10 polls in the last couple of weeks. The two from yesterday appear to be outliers. In other polling this morning, Harris has taken the lead by 6 points in the suburbs (a very big deal) and leads Trump in likability, though not in leadership skills (which amazes me but whatever, so long as she beats him.)

Well ya know. Maybe if I get that surgery I can have my chance at that.

The last time I played blackjack (about 3 months ago) I won $500. That never happens to me. Normally I lose around $200 and then quit. But I have no idea what I’m doing beyond the most basic advice everybody knows.

Interesting. Well back to the point: as a Harris supporter I’d rather be at 52% than 48% but I don’t feel too good about either. Silver has Harris currently at 55% so I’ll take that. I guess. Silver had Hillary at 75%.

Honest question because I know nothing about this: if you’re a good actor and your face is blank how can they tell that you’re counting cards? Simply by the bets you make?

You make good points. It may be that the tide has turned in Trump’s favor. Perhaps I’m paying too much attention to the national polls, and Silver, and not enough to the latest battleground polls and betting odds. Could be. Time will tell.

You could be right. To be fair, if I say Harris has a 52% chance of winning, and you say Trump has a 52% chance of winning, what are we really arguing about?

Who does Mark Halperin work for these days? Oh yeah. Newsmax.

That Democrats see the writing on the wall? Among other things. As I wrote, Kamala is still the favorite. ETA not the betting favorite- polling favorite. At the moment.

This is hilarious. Are all of you guys watching the same Fox show? Because this narrative you’re all repeating is pretty out there. This election is still tight but Kamala is still winning. She’s still ahead in most polls, still has momentum. And her media blitz is largely working. Doesn’t mean she will win but I’d still rather be her than Trump right now.

You’re talking about the Quinnipiac polls that have Trump slightly ahead in Michigan and Wisconsin. But they also show Harris ahead in Pennsylvania. If I posted those you would just accuse me of ignoring polls that showed her behind in Pennsylvania. Which is why you’re a troll.

You mean like the one I have in the title of this thread? What a troll you are.

I love the word “shenanigans”. IMO, life doesn’t have enough shenanigans.

iMO there is going to be no significant changing anyone’s minds, and few undecideds left. This election will be decided by those who actually vote. Specifically I’m thinking of Gen Z- they are heavily for Kamala. But will they actually take time away from partying, work and school (in that order) to vote? If they do she wins. If they don’t Trump wins.

I’m going to repeat over and over- you look for trends. For example, take Morning Consult. It does a national poll every week. Last week it had Kamala up by 5 points. This week it has Kamala up by 5 points. That doesn’t tell us that she’s actually up by 5 points, but it does suggest that nothing happened between last week and this week that changed anyone’s opinions. With no further debates scheduled, it’s hard to see what might happen over the next 4 weeks that will change the numbers. People always talk about an October surprise but not sure what that would be.

Actually to correct the above: 1. if Kamala is ahead nationally by 1 point or less, Trump is very likely to win the election. 2. If Kamala is ahead nationally by 2 points then it’s a dead heat, 50/50 outcome. 3. If Kamala is ahead nationally by 3 points or more, she is very likely to win.

4 new polls have Harris ahead nationally by 2-5 points: https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2024/10/09/trump-vs-harris-2024-polls-harris-leads-by-2-points-in-latest-survey/ However another poll, from ActiVote, gives Trump the edge: https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-donald-trump-national-polls-1966429 Per Nate Silver, Trump has an electoral college differential of 3 points- kind of like a home field advantage. So for Kamala to win the election, she has to be ahead nationally by 3 points- if she is ahead by 2 or less, or behind, then Trump is likely to win.

lol you guys were ripping her for giving no interviews. Now you’re ripping her for giving interviews. And all the while Trump spews out absolute crazy sh!t and lies 24/7. And you’re dissecting her words. It would be hilarious if it wasn’t so pathetic and dangerous for this country.

Ooh it hurts so much

It’s always amusing to see me psychoanalyzed. And guys like you always get it wrong. My motives for posting here are pretty simple: I enjoy discussing politics and there are a few folks here who offer thoughtful back and forth discussion even when I disagree with them: @jerryskids, @Voltaire, @Engorgeous George, a few others. Then there are a few guys who aren’t really serious but with whom I enjoy trading banter and insults back and forth: @Tree of Knowledge, @HellToupee, a few others. These guys make it worth it to come here. The rest of you dudes I tolerate. Sometimes I respond, sometimes you bore me. If you guys bore me too much I suppose I’ll leave.

I had a great time, thanks for asking. Until the ending. That sucked. But it was a once in a lifetime experience, I got to see my favorite team at their home stadium, sold out crowd, terrible towels swirling. Even got to see TJ Watt get a record sack. It was great.

Im defined that way by a couple of people whose opinion of me doesn’t bother me in the slightest. Neither does yours.

That’s just stupid. I interpret the data differently from you, and other trolls.