The Real timschochet

Correction: the headline was in error. The new Reuters poll shows Harris by 3 points. That makes more sense.

There are several people here who don’t care about polls. If you’re one of them fine. But then why are you in this thread, which from the beginning has been focused on the polls?

@Horseman I’m not lying about anything. In this thread I report what the polls say and then offer my opinion about them. You’re free to agree or disagree with the opinion part. The good thing about this is that very shortly we will know how accurate those opinions were, and yours as well.

Reuters/Ipsos: Kamala by 7 nationally: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/10/09/harris-trump-lead-reuters-poll/75584172007/ I suspect this is an outlier too. No way is Kamala ahead by 7 points nationally. It would be awesome if she were but it’s unrealistic. Still if she were ahead by even 3 points, as the NYT/Siena poll suggested yesterday, she’s not losing Pennsylvania.

Based on 3 polls that I think are outliers. Let’s see some non-Republican polls say the same thing and then I’ll agree with you.

Is this meant to be a trick question? Most American Muslims believe that Israel is committing grave crimes by killing innocent people in Gaza and Lebanon. But you knew this.

It really hasn’t and you’re not very smart for thinking so. (But we knew that.) The NY Times/Siena poll yesterday was great news for Kamala. Even better are the indications that she’s catching up on the economy. I think this new couple of polls, which incidentally are both from Republican firms, are outliers and don’t represent a trend. But we’ll find out shortly.

A couple new polls out this morning have Trump up by 2 in Pennsylvania: https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-breaks-ahead-kamala-harris-must-win-state-new-poll-1966085 Aggregate polling still has her ahead there, barely, so we’ll have to see if this represents a trend,

You misunderstand me (and @Horseman is simply an idiot as always.) Trump didn’t need to run to the left of Harris on Israel. All he had to do is shut up about it, and let Harris wallow in the center. Thats what Trump was basically doing on this issue for months and it was working. Now he has come out fully in support of Israel and reminding the Muslims in Michigan that he really doesn’t love them.

Whats interesting, from a solely political standpoint: Trump had the chance to win Michigan because Palestinians there don’t like how Biden has supported Israel. But if the alternative is even greater support for Israel without any restrictions at all, a lot of those Palestinians are going to end up voting for Harris. Trump is giving Michigan away.

You really need to read the discussion between me and Jerry again and ask who is being condescending to whom. He’s the one throwing out all kinds of declarative statements. I’m saying things aren’t black and white. And I don’t have any best friends that are Palestinian. I just know a few.

I didn’t create any new opinions on this issue. They all come from actual Israelis.

What the fock is with you? You attack me for giving advice the other day, you continually call me a liar, and now this bullcrap? I don’t think I’m smarter than Jerry. I just think he’s wrong about this and sees things too much in a black and white way without nuance. I get that because he reminds me of my own dad. I empathize with Jerry but I think he’s wrong. As for you if you want to get in the discussion do so. Make whatever points you want to make. But otherwise stfu.

None of the ones I know approved of October 7. They predicted, correctly, that it would lead to devastation for Gaza. None of them are in love with Hamas or Hezbollah. I asked one of the them the other day, a very smart woman who has worked as a journalist in the region, “why the overwhelming support for Hamas?” She said “because there is no one else. And right now because we are at war and when that happens you support your leaders”. That was not to me a satisfactory answer, because unlike your description of me I do not regard myself as a moral relativist. But I suspect it’s a true one. @jerryskids I know you disagree with me on this topic. I have come a very long way on my thoughts on this issue. I was raised to believe that Israel were the good guys. I have cousins in the IDF. A very close friend of my dad’s was in the Mossad. My grandmother was a Zionist and on one of the boats that Leon Uris fictionalized when he wrote Exodus. My synagogue has a huge banner on it: “We stand with Israel”. I get it. But my views have definitely changed. I still love and support Israel but I no longer believe it is wise to do so unequivocally. And I strongly resent this push on the right, which you here are partaking in, to lump any questioning of Israeli policy with support of her enemies. It’s really quite insulting. And just stupid.

It won’t. There can not be a “decisive” victory against Iran. But any strong move by Israel against Iran actually will serve to unify the Sunnis and Shia against Israel. That’s one of the many things you don’t seem to understand about this. The Abraham Accords were a trap for Israel, an attempt to enmesh them into the rivalry between the Sunnis and Iran. It actually weakens Israel’s security because it very deliberately ignores the main issue which has always been at the root of its problems- the Palestinians.

Yes.

I feel the same. FWIW I know several Palestinians.

Yeah we’re just not getting anywhere. I didn’t ignore your points; I’ve responded to them before and it didn’t get me anywhere. You and others like you really misunderstand Israel and I don’t believe your misunderstanding is at all helpful to Israel’s security. You’re making Israel less safe IMO.

I could go into detail why you are wrong about all of this but we’ve had this conversation before and it’s not getting us anywhere. I will only add two points: 1. There are plenty of Israelis and supporters of Israel who share my views on this. None of them support Hamas; neither do I. It’s actually very insulting and offensive to suggest that we do. 2. I think your characterization of Palestinians, and Muslims in general, is based on stereotypes and not rooted in reality.. Do you know any Palestinians? I have some very close friends who are. They’re not the people you have painted here.

1. Yes the US hasn’t throttled Israel. 2. Kamala is not giving money to terrorist states. 3. You are more guilty of moral relativism than I am by excusing the bad things that Netanyahu has done. I’m not guilty of it at all because I’m willing to condemn bad acts no matter who performs them.

I was a joke comment to a poster I don’t take seriously. Kind of like you.

Most of your assumptions are wrong. Take a cue from our greatest journalist, Bob Woodward: he said today that Donald Trump is the worst foreign policy President in our history, and that Kamala was capable and efficient.

In honestly curious about this. She’s a capitalist, centrist, pro-business. She’s hardly leftist on any issue you can name. What offends you so much?

I’m not going to try to break down your ridiculous list. But sometime you might want to honestly ask yourself how much of this truly represents liberalism or the Democratic Party. A little does; most of it is fantasy.

And that’s why you’re going to lose next month.