The Real timschochet

Polymarket is the ONLY reason that Kamala leads by only 1 point in the overall betting markets instead of by several. It apparently believes, like some people here, that Trump is a lock to win Pennsylvania. But polling doesn’t show that.

This is a false narrative. And given Trump’s incoherence it won’t work. I’m sure conservatives will believe Kamala is empty-headed but she has opened up a 16 point lead among independents.

I’m guessing that the first set of questions will now be about the Middle East.

It was still the right thing to do.

It was still the right thing to do. And the exchange that Biden worked out that’s the subject of this thread was a big victory for his sort of diplomacy. I truly doubt Trump would have (or could have) accomplished it.

I don’t think you’re getting that she’s winning right now.

Really? Did that happen? I’ve already forgotten it.

Of course not. They’re only repeating the lessons taught them by the liberals who spent months attacking the Bush governments response to Katrina. I bought into that criticism myself. It took me years to educate myself- Bush and FEMA made mistakes back then but it wasn’t deliberate. Just as Trump made mistakes during Covid but it wasn’t deliberate. Just as Biden made mistakes pulling us out of Afghanistan but it wasn’t deliberate. I’ve come to realize that in the vast majority of cases the government is well-meaning in emergencies and when bad things happen it’s because of screwups, sometimes incompetence, but rarely maliciousness.

Im all for allowing it too. I just wish they wouldn’t do so much of it.

How is this different from most religions? Hasidism are extreme Jews. Extreme Christians believe everyone but them are going to hell (even Catholics and Mormons). Extreme Muslims believe everyone but them are infidels and worthy of death. Extreme Hindus believe that non-believers are a caste below Untouchables, mainly because we consume cows and pigs. And on it goes. The good news is most religious people aren’t extreme.

Not trolling I’m 100% serious

They look at me the same way.

I’m not for censorship. But maybe social media could stop with the racism, the Nazism, the outright lies about Covid and all the other extreme white supremacy bullcrap? I’m against forcing them to stop but I wish they would. It’s not making the world a better place.

Trump tells crazy lie after crazy lie and you guys rip the media for correcting him. You guys are frigging insane.

If you believe that the federal government is helping Lebanon, or Ukraine, or undocumented immigrants, or whatever else you want to mention that you disapprove of, at the expense of or as an alternative to helping the victims of this storm, then you are not a serious person.

If you believe the federal government is deliberately trying not to help people in this situation, or even worse, deliberately trying to do harm to them, then I don’t believe you’re a serious person.

Not necessarily. But look I’m not really seeing a huge difference anyhow. Basically what happened is that Kamala had a 3 point betting advantage until one service decided she was going to lose Pennsylvania and a whole bunch of money came in for Trump. That skewed the averages and narrowed it to a point advantage or a tie, depending on sample size. In the end all this amounts to is that the entire election is likely to come down to Pennsylvania. Which most people have known all along. Everything I’m reading shows that Kamala Harris has maintained a consistent 1-2 point edge there for about a month now, on average. A couple people here, notably @Jon_mx, think that’s a lie and that Trump is winning there by 4-5 points. We will find out shortly enough. I feel good about it but not great. (I also felt good last night that the Steelers would win until the last two minutes.)

Well claiming that liberals defended the assassination attempts on Trump is hardly a “fact”. But whatever. I still appreciate what you did to help.

Forbes is using the 4 main sites. RCP is using 8 sites. BFD.

I disagree with most of what you wrote, but thank you for this.

No this is wrong. They’ve narrowed but Harris is still ahead. https://www.forbes.com/sites/siladityaray/2024/10/07/harris-lead-over-trump-narrows-in-election-betting-markets/

https://www.amazon.com/Promise-Chaim-Potok/dp/1400095417

It’s not guesswork. I’m just looking at the numbers. I have no idea what @Jon_mx is looking at. Or @Strike or any of these other guys. It’s extremely tight and could go either way but you have to give Kamala the slight edge. Most experts do, and the betting lines as well.

Great reference. Great novel. The sequel is even better IMO

https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/survey-research/2024-swing-state-project/swing-state-polling-finds-deadlocked-presidential Cook Political Report has Kamala Harris winning Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan. Nevada and the 1 in Nebraska bringing her to 276 electoral votes. * Hmm . This is starting to look like a pattern. * Cook also has North Carolina tied. If Harris win that it brings her to 292.