The Real timschochet

https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model Nate Silver has Kamala Harris winning Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada and the 1 in Nebraska, bringing her to 276 electoral votes.

That will be very depressing if that happens. But we’ll survive. Really hoping you’re wrong though. I think and trust you are.

@Strike this is why you are a hack and a troll. Because you attack me for citing polls, but you let assertions like this one go without comment.

This is nonsense. All of it.

You are tiring and it didn’t take a while.

Yes I looked at it. And Harris wasn’t running a year ago. And did you look at the 538? Half the time I can’t even undestand what point you’re making except to try to rip me for writing that Kamala Harris is consistently ahead by half a percentage point in Pennsylvania. But she is. If that number holds she will win Pennsylvania and, very likely, the Presidency. Sorry that seems to upset you. You constantly ignore posts with nonsense like “only black and gays vote for Kamala” but you double and triple down trying to attack one tiny aspect of whatever I write to prove me wrong so that you can call me a hack. You’re the definition of a troll. After Kamala wins you’ll have 4 more years to whine and complain about it.

She’s about 20 times as smart as Trump is on this issue. (And almost every other issue.)

lol the polls don’t go back a full year because Kamala Harris wasn’t running a full year ago. Also if you look at 538 aggregate polls you see she is also consistently ahead in Pennsylvania: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/ You’re the hack not me. No matter how you look at it Kamala is ahead- not by much but consistently so.

Hopefully Jared Kushner and Saudi Arabia can chime in here.

Trump is desperate. His internal polling has him losing the election and he knows it. At this point he will say anything, do anything to change the dynamics. Look for him to throw out even crazier lies during the next few weeks.

Latest swing state polling: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4916860-election-day-close-race-battlegrounds/amp/ 1. Kamala is ahead in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, and the one vote in Nebraska. 2. Trump is ahead in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina. All of these leads are very slim but consistent. If they hold that puts Kamala at 276 and she wins. Obviously I’d love to see her win Georgia and North Carolina too, which would mean an early night (and I could stop worrying so much about Pennsylvania and Michigan, both of which make me nervous for different reasons). But if the above is the path I’ll take it.

I am not a fan of this version.

Update: it was fine but a little too salty. Ruth Criss is better IMO. The Gordon Ramsey steakhouse in Las Vegas is the best steak I’ve had in the USA

Actually I’m going to enjoy a steak instead. Del Frisco’s Double Eagle steakhouse. I’m told it’s the best steak back east. We’ll see.

lol there will be millions of white men who vote for Harris and Walz. And after she wins there will be millions more who said they did. Because in a few years from now it will be an embarrassment for anyone to admit that they voted for Donald Trump (actually it already is.)

I wasn’t referring to him. I was referring to his daughter.

Democrats don’t make the first argument you posted.

Liz isn’t changing any votes from Trump to Harris; that’s true. But I do think she might cause a few conservatives who can’t stand Trump but we’re going to simply refuse to vote to vote for Harris instead.

Lots of Steelers fans here in downtown Pittsburgh but also a lot of Cowboy fans walking around. Just visited the Andy Warhol museum and it was crowded with both. One main impression I am getting from my visits this week to Philadelphia and Pittsburgh: people here are sick to death of this election. Trump and Harris are everywhere, you can’t escape it. I imagine the folks here are probably proud of the fact that in all likelihood they get to decide this thing for the rest of us but I also think they’ll be happy when it’s finally over.

Very good interview here with a pair of posters, one Republican one Democrat: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/10/05/what-the-polls-are-really-saying-00182588 They go inside the numbers with good and bad news for both parties. The consensus seems to be that Harris is going to win, but that Republicans will win the Senate to keep her in check. I think that’s right.

I have no idea where you’re getting that number from. But I’m telling you that even if such programs are out there most undocumented immigrants don’t access them.

MSNBC has opinion shows and it has news shows. I enjoy watching both. The news reported can be trusted. The opinion offered is just that.

Anybody who goes to vote has to give their name and address which is checked off against a list of registered voters. Thats all we need. Requiring further ID is bogus. It’s a deliberate attempt to keep certain people (of a darker shade of skin color) from voting. That’s the only reason. There is no voter fraud. It’s a bullcrap issue.

Who cares?

I really don’t care if you give a fuk about it or not, (though if you don’t I’m sad for you.) Forcibly separating families in order to scare people from coming here is wrong. It’s objectively evil, and nothing you write can ever justify it.