The Real timschochet

He’s not a sycophant. He argues with me too much. I need a yes man, someone to kiss my a$$ the way you do with Trump. I want someone to say “sir, not only are you right but you’re also quite brilliant” and do it 24/7. Want a job? I can pay you more than Trump does. If he’s paying you $5 an hour I will go $5.50.

The VP debate will be shown on nearly every live major channel so I figure it will have some kind of reasonable audience. I would guess maybe 20 million or so.

There would also be almost no scoring. Average score of every game would be something like 6-3. Almost no touchdowns. Almost no first downs. ETA in fact you wouldn’t need to get rid of all the rules for this to happen. Just get rid of the offsides rule and that would take care of it.

Within less than a month there would be a new quarterback on every team.

How many people are doing this? A dozen? A few hundred nationwide? It shouldn’t change any numbers.

I’d so love to have sycophants. Where are my sycophants?

You don’t need me. Here is a list of all the betting sites and odds: https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president Since they all favor Kamala Harris to win, and since the “TRUTH” according to you is that Trump has over 300 electoral votes locked up, go get your money.

It’s truly an embarrassment- even his candidacy is a historical stain on our country that we will always have.

Jon is setting himself up for a rejection of what’s going to happen on Election Day. After Harris wins (I predict we will have the results that night) Jon will tell himself it’s impossible and conclude that, once again, the election must have been stolen,

Well I’m So glad we now have the truth. I am a bit mystified as to why 538 and so many pollsters would deliberately lie only to be embarrassed and humiliated in November.

Liberals are clueless because we refuse to make assumptions about the Department of Justice being corrupt without any evidence whatsoever. Seriously: to those of us who live in the normal world, the accusation that the DOJ is prosecuting Adams because of his views on immigration is absurd. It’s beyond absurd. One would have to be mentally ill to believe such nonsense. And yet so many of you do.

Fox News Poll: Harris ahead by 3 points in Georgia: https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-harris-ahead-trump-3-points-georgia.amp

This Newsweek article, quoting Nate Silver, explains why Harris has the advantage in a very close race: https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-donald-trump-polls-swing-states-election-1959933 Her lead in Michigan (and Wisconsin) is pretty firm and it’s hard to see how Trump catches up in those states. That leaves Pennsylvania where she’s got a 2 point lead within the margin of error. But if you look at the trend lines, some show a tie, some show her with a slight lead, but none that I have seen show Trump rebounding or increasing his percentage. In addition, if this comes down to Get Out the Vote efforts, everything I’ve read suggests her ground game is much better than his. I also believe there are two important factors that point in Kamala’s favor: first, I think the polling is too conservative about “likely voters”. The 18-29 crowd are not being taken into account enough (which is fair because they haven’t exactly shown up in previous elections). But I think they will this time and they favor Harris by 30 points or so. Second, I think most of 4% of undecided will swing to Harris at the last second. On the other hand there is always the fact that Trump has done far better on Election Day than the polls said he would in 2016 and 2020, because people don’t want to admit that they’re voting for him and then they do. And that could happen again; hence my caution. But I think most of the pollsters, seeking to correct past mistakes, have already factored this in. So I don’t think this will be a surprise.

I believe that Harris is going to win. I don’t know that she’s going to win. If you think that makes me full of crap so be it. I think YOU are cherry picking polls and delusional.

I don’t believe you’re correct about this. And since as President he has the power to do this without the assent of Congress it’s not a risk I’m willing to take.

If he does he likely wins the election. Which I know you think will happen anyhow. But he won’t win PA. She’s ahead there. She has been for several weeks. Be of good cheer.

No thanks. I know you’re good for it. But while I feel good about this it’s only about 55%-45% in my mind and that’s not enough to risk $1000.00. Besides, if Trump wins we will both need every penny since the economy will be in terrible shape after the new tariffs next year.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4901092-harris-trump-michigan-pennsylvania/amp/ 5 point lead in Michigan, 2 point lead in Pennsylvania

Well that’s specific.

Your last word defines you.

It’s pretty high. Getting higher all the time.

Not inaccurate at all.

He’s setting himself up for frustration and conspiracies.

It’s one poll. Reuters/Ipsos. She’s averaging a 3-4 point lead. Nobody knows for sure how this is going to play out. I predict that on election night we will know early on that Kamala has it in the bag, because she’s going to win North Carolina. But my predictions are often wrong, brilliant as I am.

Barring a major change, I believe Kamala Harris will win Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and Michigan and 1 vote in Nebraska, giving her 270. The other states you mentioned are toss ups but I feel good about them.