The Real timschochet

I don’t understand how Walz can know for sure at this stage that these murders were politically motivated. The story doesn’t explain that. Usually motivation takes a long time to determine, even when the culprit has been captured.

No you’re right from that perspective. But there is still a significant difference. I think that shortly Iran and Israel are going to stop bombing each other and this latest incident will be exactly that, an incident. On the other hand, for Ukraine-Russia to be over, Russia is going to have to pull their forces out of Ukraine, or Ukraine is going to have to surrender territory, or some combination of the two.

I missed this post earlier but it’s not very smart. Iran has twice the population of Iraq, 6 times the land area, and incredibly more resources. There is a reason we have never tried to invade Iran. (Among other things, Iran if it chose could block the Strait of Hormuz, threatening the entire world’s supply of oil. Israel does not have the ability to invade Iran. We do, theoretically, but it would take millions of men and lead to mass casualties. It would not be easy at all.

No this is a poor analysis. I don’t really want to speak for leftists but I don’t believe they think as you describe. Personally as a liberal I have never been comfortable with the idea of the Iranian mullahs having a nuclear weapon. I would rather they didn’t have one and I think military intervention is justifiable to prevent them from having one. But that said I’m not convinced they would use it if they had it; after all Pakistan, a fundamentalist Muslim nation, has had nukes for 40 years and never used them. Certainly they hate India as much or more than the Mullahs of Iran hate Israel. So I reject your assertion as absolute. Even so it’s too big a risk to take in my estimation.

We are not. A “full blown war” means the army of one side invades the land of the other side, as Russia has done with Ukraine. What’s going on is serious but it’s not a war.

Do you really think it’s outlandish to argue that Gavin Newsom is currently the frontrunner to be the next Democratic Party candidate for President?

I don’t agree but in any case I wasn’t addressing any question here but the Democratic Party race for 2028. Would you agree that he’s the early frontrunner?

Anyhow if you look at the three most likely candidates according to the market: AOC certainly is a fine speaker, has charisma, has the Bernie crowd. But in the end Democratic politicians that are as leftist as she is NEVER win the nomination. Not one ever has to my memory. That doesn’t mean she couldn’t. 9 years ago I would have told you that an extreme conservative populist like Trump could never win the GOP and that happened. But I think this is even more unlikely. Buttigieg faces the same problem he faced in 2020: he’s gay. That makes his candidacy problematic in the southern Democratic primaries, which are dominated by black women voters who are for the most part religious conservative. I wish it were otherwise but it would be foolish to ignore it. Other people could emerge of course: Shapiro, Bashear, someone I’m not considering. But none have the name recognition of Newsom and it’s really blown up after this weekend. He has to be the frontrunner.

I don’t think you’re looking at this very objectively. But let’s look at what the markets say: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxpresnomd/democratic-primary-winner

Sad to hear this. He was, at his peak, the best WR in the NFL and he might have gone down among the best ever to play that position. All lost.

After this weekend I think Gavin Newsom has emerged as the leading Democratic politician and the frontrunner for 2028 for the Democratic Party. It’s interesting because only a week ago if you had asked me about him I would have told you that he had lost the base, and that therefore it seemed unlikely he’d be the guy. But circumstances have changed that. For better or worse he is being seen as the man who stands up to Trump, and that puts him way ahead of the pack.

There is some truth to the idea that the LAPD might not be able to handle stuff on their own. They don’t have a great reputation, after all. For going on 70 years they have been as bigoted, racist, fascist as practically any police force in the USA. I’d like to think that this has changed in the last two decades but only to a certain degree. As late as 2007 they were culpable in brutally beating up protestors. The problem is that the National Guard hasn’t behaved any better particularly in Los Angeles. And of course the bigger problem is that this entire kerfuffel began because ICE under Tom Homan behave like Gestapo thugs. That’s at the root of things.

https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/5177420-supreme-court-blocks-trump-funding/ This is a great result; the guardrails are creaky but intact. Hopefully it will lead to more limitations on President Trump’s attempt to consolidate too much power in the White House. Maybe next we can challenge his ability to break solemn treaties by enacting tariffs?

Imagine if the Clippers ever win anything, then we’d all better hide.

Hey New Girl hope you are well. We’re talking over each other and I don’t want to do that. I will note only that every conservative I read, here and elsewhere, seems to think these incidents were a lot worse than they were presented and that Trump’s action of calling in the National Guard was well justified. And every liberal I read, here and elsewhere, think that these incidents were a lot more minor than they were presented. And that happens to be my own view. Now to be fair I was not in downtown LA last weekend so like you I can only depend on what I watched on TV. Though I suspect we watched different networks. But I WAS in the middle of the Rodney King riot (I was in downtown when that actually happened) and I was in Long Beqch during the Floyd protests and subsequent riots. And this latest event does not compare to those.

Well that’s your prerogative. And you may turn out to be right, I don’t think it’s a wise deternination at this point.

Hope you are well RLLD. But of course I take issue with your narrative of events. There was never any widespread rioting; 99% of it took place over two square blocks in downtown. It was nothing like Rodney King, or even George Floyd. There was not even as much violence as occurs after the Lakers win a championship. There WERE some violent acts (mostly a few cars set on fire) but these were quickly handled by the police. The national guard were completely unnecessary and by the time they actually arrived almost all of action was already finished.

I think being for or against this attack, at this stage, is premature and rather foolish. We don’t have enough information, and we don’t know what the consequences will be. That being said I think we should all be willing to agree on the following two points: 1. The government of Iran is an oppressive, evil theocracy and it would be better for the world, and us, if they ceased to rule. 2. It is better for the world, and us, that Iran not have nuclear weapons.

Because the Biden people didn’t arrest anyone indiscriminately- they went after bad guys, violent felons, etc. They didn’t go to Home Depot and grab day laborers.

Hey guys I’m back! Been gone a few weeks, thought it would be longer, but politics have gotten pretty interesting havent they? I missed you guys. Well most of you anyhow. So what’s up?

Trump suggested a carve out yesterday for undocumented workers in our agricultural and service industries. Something like that, and a focus on removing hardened criminals rather than anyone without proper papers, would go a long way toward quelling the unrest IMO.

I think it’s reasonable to support Israel in any struggle against Iran, and yet at the same time question their handling of Gaza and of the Palestinian issue in general. That’s the way I feel actually.

Israel is reporting the President of Iran has been killed.

Fetterman is certainly a Democrat, but at this point I wouldn’t describe him as either a liberal or a neocon.

Third time you’ve written that you’re good with it. But we have no idea what the consequences will be for us and for Israel and the world. The reasons we have avoided this sort of thing for years is that Iran is potentially the most powerful nation in the Middle East, with the ability to do much damage to any opponent. This action may very well finally unite their population entirely behind the most extreme elements of their leadership. We are committed to the defense of Israel, but even more so we are committed to the defense of Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait and WILL go to war if these countries are threatened (we have no choice.) We are also, as @Engorgeous George had correctly pointed out, very vulnerable to terrorist attacks, Not saying any of this will happen, but it seems to me that your knee-jerk and glib support of this strike, without knowing any of the details, is amazingly short sided at this point.