The Real timschochet

Sure. But even so, buying a company for 40 billion and then having it end up being worth 12 billion doesn’t seem like a good result. All I’m saying.

To the contrary I’ve noted it many times before. However I don’t agree it represents a pattern. I suspect that this time around will reflect more of what we saw in 2022 in which the outrage against overturning Roe was severely underpolled. Look to see suburban women again rise up and suprise pollsters with their numbers for Kamala. As far as you calling me a hack I’ve already demonstrated why that is clearly projection on your part.

And this “drop in the polls” thing is nonsense. Let’s be clear: if somebody is 10 points down, then catches up to take a 51-49 lead, then falls behind slightly to 51-49 the other way, that’s not a “drop in the polls.” That means she’s caught up to margin of error and is still caught up. Let me know when Kamala loses 5-10 points in a poll the way Trump has. Then I will pay attention.

When did I say the polls are wrong? They’re not wrong. Kamala leads nationwide and leads or is effectively tied in all the swing states. It’s a toss up for sure but I think she’s in a favorable position. That’s been my argument all along. The post you responded to was an argument I made IN ADDITION to the polling not as an alternative.

Another big reason I continue to argue that Kamala’s momentum hasn’t died out is that her personal favorability numbers continue to increase: https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/harris-vs-trump-polls-kamala-popularity.html This is a big deal. It wins elections. The fact is that people like Kamala now that they’re getting to know her. Her numbers prior to now were based on Biden’s performance, which was based on people’s dislike of inflation (not on their dislike of Biden; as inflation becomes less of an issue his numbers are rising as well.)

If it’s within 2 points one way or the other I see it as essentially a tie.

I don’t think a half a point swing one way or the other is meaningful. I’m still looking at long term trend lines.

And people think that I am naive.

I wrote the other day that, despite his insane politics, Elon is a genius. But now I’ve been reminded that the dude purchased a company for 40 billion and now it’s worth 12 billion. So now I’m wondering…

Yep. Here is 538 who only a month ago @Strike loved and is now ignoring- and he has the nerve to call anyone else a hack! https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/?ex_cid=abcpromo Harris is leading in almost all polling- including Emerson- and yet the momentum isn’t real. It’s slowed down and reversed. Sure it has. ETA- I shouldn’t have written “almost all”- she’s actually leading in every national poll. Of course they don’t use Rasmussen- too many land lines. In the swing states she’s either ahead or tied in all of them.

Wow. What a circle jerk in here. You guys crack me up. Love especially how @Strike offered up Emerson- the same folks who now have Kamala within striking distance in Florida and Texas. Lololol. Sorry guys the momentum has been real all along and it’s still going strong. The race is still tight but all the signs are leaning in her direction. Am I being delusional again? We’ll find out pretty shortly.

Which poll? Please be specific, Tia

1. Where has she lost ground? Show me something please. 2. Two weeks ago she was the betting favorite by a couple of points. Now a few betting sites have Trump the favorite by a couple of points and others have Kamala the favorite by a couple of points. But basically since she’s been in the race, the bettors have them both at 50-50. So what’s changed?

I like him. But what he says has to make sense to me. I don’t look at him like some sort of Nostradamus. I try to understand his reasoning. Here I don’t. And @EternalShinyAndChrome, while I am generally an optimist I’m not one when it comes to political outcomes. What I want to have happen rarely occurs. In this case I have reason to believe that it will and so I’m excited by that. But if Trump wins that won’t surprise me either. And we’ll survive it.

Yeah he seems to be the outlier this time around. Which is fine. I don’t understand his logic as I can’t find any decline in polls, especially in the swing states. He keeps mentioning it but what poll is he referring to that has a decline? I’ll never oppose the facts. You show me where the decline is and I’ll note it. But again I don’t see it. I will, however, change the title to a question mark.

Damn. Amazing: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4865482-trump-harris-florida-texas-poll/amp/ I see no reason to change the thread title. And after the debate Kamala is only going to surge more.

Trump’s sentence in NY delayed until after the election.

Love how you start by calling me delusional and then spew 5 paragraphs of absolute nonsense. The Democrats still have time to allow Trump to be killed. This sentence alone indicates you are incapable of rendering sane analysis. And the rest of what you wrote is almost equally as bad.

I think your point, as well the article that @Strike posted, misses the reason why Kamala seems to be avoiding some details. It’s not because she’s incompetent or doesn’t know what she’s talking about or trying to conceal a secret socialist agenda. It’s because her shortened campaign gives her an advantage that no other Presidential candidate in recent history has ever had: universal appeal and the ability to be all things to all people. Thats a tremendous edge and the more specific she gets, the more she risks giving it up. If she appears too centrist that will alienate some in her base. If she appears too progressive that will alienate some in the middle. It’s a lose-lose for her whatever she does so it makes sense to be vague. There is more to this as well that we’ve discussed before. You and me and most people contributing to this thread are unusual in that we follow politics all of the time. As you well know most people don’t. And most people want to feel good, they want a positive outlook and someone and something to look up to. They’re bored by details. Nobody ever understood this better than Ronald Reagan. Kamala understands it too.

When it comes to Putin there is no more predictable American politician than Donald Trump.

I try to be an optimist about most things. I think the fact that conservatives and liberals alike agree almost unanimously on the prosecution of this father is a great sign for our society. It shows, I believe, that despite our differences on so many issues we share similar feelings on most of the really important questions of right and wrong.

But I thought she was a socialist! How can this be?

No, normal people tell you that.

Bullsh!t on the coordination and the rest of your post as well. PERHAPS the criticism of Vance is unfair. I say perhaps because the fact is the criticism works because conservatives like Vance constantly refuse to address the root cause of these mass shootings which is, in the opinion both of liberals and the vast majority of the public, that we don’t have enough reasonable federal gun laws. Conservatives go out of their way to avoid discussing it.

Not the same. Politicians are taken out of context all the time. But the right makes up complete falsehoods like the supposed undocumented immigrants who attacked a school bus in San Diego. Be better.