The Real timschochet

But not Iowa?

@jerryskids I just want you to know I appreciate your always thoughtful posts. I strongly disagree with you on many social and “woke” issues (especially gender stuff) but I don’t think we’re that far apart on economics.

She wasn’t President then. Obama also voted as a liberal as a Senator. A lot of those votes are meat for the base. But Obama as President governed as a centrist. So will Harris. She’s no ideologue.

Last night Trump said that his immigration plan (mass deportation) would be “bloody” and “nasty”. Earlier in the week Elon Musk said that the economic plans would create “temporary hardships” on the public, and Trump said he would turn public health over to RFK Jr and let him “run wild”. Rather a unique closing message.

It’s interesting that you write this because a lot of pundits think that Harris has run a brilliant campaign. I kind of lean more in that direction.

None of you yet have mentioned the main reason that Harris is going to win. It’s not opposition to Trump (much as I wish it was). It’s abortion. The Dobbs decision is what stopped the red wave in 2022. It’s what’s going to propel Harris to victory this time around. Women are pissed off. Republicans don’t have a good response. In the end that’s the difference.

Kamala wins Arizona, Nevada and the blue wall.

I’m ready to bet again Tony, Just with you nobody else. $500 says Kamala Harris wins the Presidential election.

They’ve got her ahead in North Carolina and Georgia. If she wins those she doesn’t need Pennsylvania. (But if she wins those she will win Pennsylvania).

This will definitely happen with Harris. I would argue that she’s a centrist anyhow but even if I am wrong about that the Senate is likely to be Republican- and even in the very unlikely event Democrats hang on to the Senate their hold there will be extremely tenuous. Add to that a conservative Supreme Court and I don’t think anyone has to worry about radical changes under Harris. Trump is extreme but not an extreme rightist, more an extreme nativist/populist. He will sew chaos if elected. Most of those who are voting for him are counting on him to “fix” the economy and immigration; he will definitely try some radical moves which will create all kinds of anxiety but no solutions/ I think there will be a lot of buyers remorse.

I’m a little surprised by the decision to campaign there. Is New Hampshire really in play?

Nobody is. Nobody knows crap. I’m feeling pretty optimistic, and my FiL, who wants Trump to win, is also feeling pretty optimistic. But that’s because we’re both essentially cheerful people and we always hope for the best. But neither of us knows sh!t,

I think you’re right to a certain extent. No matter what the positions of the next Republican candidate is, he or she will be called worse than Hitler by some on the left. I saw it happen with McCain, with Romney, with George W. Bush. Some liberals always demonize their opponents. But there are two problems with making this point right now: 1. it’s not just a liberal thing. Many conservatives have spent the last few months calling Kamala Harris a communist. Many of you refer to our current President as “Pedo Joe”. This, for once, is truly a “both sides” deal. 2. I know it’s going to sound like the boy who cried wolf but Trump really is a special case. He is uniquely awful.

Accusing the government of trying to assassinate Donald Trump is a serious charge which you have absolutely no foundation for. You’re getting very upset and there’s still a few days to go. You need to take some deep breaths and calm down. I don’t think this election is going to go the way you believe it will and you need to prepare mentally for that.

The “Trump has an enemies list; Kamala has a to do list” line seems to be working. It’s very smart politicking.

Hey if they can control the weather, why not?

Trump may very well win the election. It is, after all, a crapshoot. But even if he does that won’t change my opinion of January 6, the JFK and MLK assassinations, 9/11, etc. Or of you being delusional.

Meanwhile the betting odds for Trump continue to tumble: https://www.usatoday.com/story/graphics/2024/10/31/presidential-election-odds-2024-polls-betting/75628466007/ I felt I had to post this because @Horseman, who has eagerly posted these odds for weeks and offered them as evidence of who is really winning this election, has now become strangely silent on this subject.

Harris has taken a slight lead in North Carolina and Georgia according to the NYT/Siena poll out this morning. One poll never tells us anything but over the past three weeks there were NO polls showing her ahead in these 2 states. We are headed to a wild finish.

This is really delusional. All of it.

I changed my mind because I had more time than I thought. Oh well. Sorry you can’t handle that. What a loser you are.

The answer to your question is yes I absolutely can. As to your first point: the key to Howard Roark, as with all of Rand’s heroes, is absolute integrity. Roark is NOT a “fock you” kind of guy: he’s indifferent to what people think about him. One of the most important lines in the book is when he tells Elsworth Toohey: “I don’t think about you.” In both terms of integrity and indifference to others, Donald Trump couldn’t be more opposite to Howard Roark.

I’m not going to believe Trump loses Iowa because of one poll. But let’s be clear: if it’s even close in Iowa that means great things for Harris in Wisconsin and Michigan.

I disagree with a lot of her ideas now, but at my core I still agree with her main principle: that capitalism is a moral good. I still very much believe that. My beliefs about free trade and immigration are rooted in this principle. Donald Trump is not a capitalist; if you know your Ayn Rand, he is very much like a Jim Taggert or Orren Boyle type. Kamala Harris, though favoring government intervention at times, is actually far more of a free market type than Trump is. I know that this must seem counterintuitive to you, nonetheless I’m absolutely convinced of it.

Certainly disagree with you here. But even so it mattered more in 2008 because McCain’s health was always a question mark.