The Real timschochet

Each morning (assuming I have time) I look up polling and post the latest ones that strike me as important. Sometimes they favor Trump like yesterday. Mostly they favor Harris. That’s because Harris is winning. If you think that’s cherry picking oh well.

You seem upset this morning. So here is a hint for you since you appear to be incapable of subtlety: if I use a phrase like “hey man” then whatever I write next is most likely tongue in cheek.

He’s not making the comment based on one poll or aggregate polling, he’s talking about Election Day. If Harris wins the popular vote by 4 points she will win the election.

Hey man in this thread I am just trying to provide an objective view.

I’d say way less since hes much more mentally incompetent now (though, truthfully, given his terrible ideas that might not be a bad thing.)

Yeah whatever. Like you know anything about serious.

Harris takes 4 point national lead in YouGov poll this morning: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4926117-harris-leads-trump-economist-yougov-poll/amp/ According to Nate Silver, a 4 point national lead gives Harris a 95%+ chance of winning the election.

No that has nothing to do with panic. Thats been planned for weeks. You’re buying into conservative spin and it’s been mostly wrong.

The two I posted yesterday. Along with the other swing state polls I posted. If there are new ones I missed feel free to post them if you really care about it.

So there’s a lot of deceptive headlines out there. Check this one out: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4922690-democrats-nervous-kamala-harris-campaign/ The headline is: “Democrats start to hit the panic button”. Sounds ominous, no? But then you read the article: Democrats are happy they’re ahead nationally but are worried about how close the battleground states are. Nobody knows how this will end up. Well, yeah. But there’s not a single mention of panic in the article.

Dont you live in New York? You’re voting for her anyway.

He’s not qualified now. His record as president makes him less qualified than Harris would be if her only job has been at McDonalds.

New poll this morning has Harris once again ahead in Pennsylvania - this time by 2 points https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-leads-donald-trump-pennsylvania-1966837 Thats 8 out of 10 polls in the last couple of weeks. The two from yesterday appear to be outliers. In other polling this morning, Harris has taken the lead by 6 points in the suburbs (a very big deal) and leads Trump in likability, though not in leadership skills (which amazes me but whatever, so long as she beats him.)

Well ya know. Maybe if I get that surgery I can have my chance at that.

The last time I played blackjack (about 3 months ago) I won $500. That never happens to me. Normally I lose around $200 and then quit. But I have no idea what I’m doing beyond the most basic advice everybody knows.

Interesting. Well back to the point: as a Harris supporter I’d rather be at 52% than 48% but I don’t feel too good about either. Silver has Harris currently at 55% so I’ll take that. I guess. Silver had Hillary at 75%.

Honest question because I know nothing about this: if you’re a good actor and your face is blank how can they tell that you’re counting cards? Simply by the bets you make?

You make good points. It may be that the tide has turned in Trump’s favor. Perhaps I’m paying too much attention to the national polls, and Silver, and not enough to the latest battleground polls and betting odds. Could be. Time will tell.

You could be right. To be fair, if I say Harris has a 52% chance of winning, and you say Trump has a 52% chance of winning, what are we really arguing about?

Who does Mark Halperin work for these days? Oh yeah. Newsmax.

That Democrats see the writing on the wall? Among other things. As I wrote, Kamala is still the favorite. ETA not the betting favorite- polling favorite. At the moment.

This is hilarious. Are all of you guys watching the same Fox show? Because this narrative you’re all repeating is pretty out there. This election is still tight but Kamala is still winning. She’s still ahead in most polls, still has momentum. And her media blitz is largely working. Doesn’t mean she will win but I’d still rather be her than Trump right now.

You’re talking about the Quinnipiac polls that have Trump slightly ahead in Michigan and Wisconsin. But they also show Harris ahead in Pennsylvania. If I posted those you would just accuse me of ignoring polls that showed her behind in Pennsylvania. Which is why you’re a troll.

You mean like the one I have in the title of this thread? What a troll you are.

I love the word “shenanigans”. IMO, life doesn’t have enough shenanigans.