The Real timschochet

iMO there is going to be no significant changing anyone’s minds, and few undecideds left. This election will be decided by those who actually vote. Specifically I’m thinking of Gen Z- they are heavily for Kamala. But will they actually take time away from partying, work and school (in that order) to vote? If they do she wins. If they don’t Trump wins.

I’m going to repeat over and over- you look for trends. For example, take Morning Consult. It does a national poll every week. Last week it had Kamala up by 5 points. This week it has Kamala up by 5 points. That doesn’t tell us that she’s actually up by 5 points, but it does suggest that nothing happened between last week and this week that changed anyone’s opinions. With no further debates scheduled, it’s hard to see what might happen over the next 4 weeks that will change the numbers. People always talk about an October surprise but not sure what that would be.

Actually to correct the above: 1. if Kamala is ahead nationally by 1 point or less, Trump is very likely to win the election. 2. If Kamala is ahead nationally by 2 points then it’s a dead heat, 50/50 outcome. 3. If Kamala is ahead nationally by 3 points or more, she is very likely to win.

4 new polls have Harris ahead nationally by 2-5 points: https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2024/10/09/trump-vs-harris-2024-polls-harris-leads-by-2-points-in-latest-survey/ However another poll, from ActiVote, gives Trump the edge: https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-donald-trump-national-polls-1966429 Per Nate Silver, Trump has an electoral college differential of 3 points- kind of like a home field advantage. So for Kamala to win the election, she has to be ahead nationally by 3 points- if she is ahead by 2 or less, or behind, then Trump is likely to win.

lol you guys were ripping her for giving no interviews. Now you’re ripping her for giving interviews. And all the while Trump spews out absolute crazy sh!t and lies 24/7. And you’re dissecting her words. It would be hilarious if it wasn’t so pathetic and dangerous for this country.

Ooh it hurts so much

It’s always amusing to see me psychoanalyzed. And guys like you always get it wrong. My motives for posting here are pretty simple: I enjoy discussing politics and there are a few folks here who offer thoughtful back and forth discussion even when I disagree with them: @jerryskids, @Voltaire, @Engorgeous George, a few others. Then there are a few guys who aren’t really serious but with whom I enjoy trading banter and insults back and forth: @Tree of Knowledge, @HellToupee, a few others. These guys make it worth it to come here. The rest of you dudes I tolerate. Sometimes I respond, sometimes you bore me. If you guys bore me too much I suppose I’ll leave.

I had a great time, thanks for asking. Until the ending. That sucked. But it was a once in a lifetime experience, I got to see my favorite team at their home stadium, sold out crowd, terrible towels swirling. Even got to see TJ Watt get a record sack. It was great.

Im defined that way by a couple of people whose opinion of me doesn’t bother me in the slightest. Neither does yours.

That’s just stupid. I interpret the data differently from you, and other trolls.

Correction: the headline was in error. The new Reuters poll shows Harris by 3 points. That makes more sense.

There are several people here who don’t care about polls. If you’re one of them fine. But then why are you in this thread, which from the beginning has been focused on the polls?

@Horseman I’m not lying about anything. In this thread I report what the polls say and then offer my opinion about them. You’re free to agree or disagree with the opinion part. The good thing about this is that very shortly we will know how accurate those opinions were, and yours as well.

Reuters/Ipsos: Kamala by 7 nationally: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/10/09/harris-trump-lead-reuters-poll/75584172007/ I suspect this is an outlier too. No way is Kamala ahead by 7 points nationally. It would be awesome if she were but it’s unrealistic. Still if she were ahead by even 3 points, as the NYT/Siena poll suggested yesterday, she’s not losing Pennsylvania.

Based on 3 polls that I think are outliers. Let’s see some non-Republican polls say the same thing and then I’ll agree with you.

Is this meant to be a trick question? Most American Muslims believe that Israel is committing grave crimes by killing innocent people in Gaza and Lebanon. But you knew this.

It really hasn’t and you’re not very smart for thinking so. (But we knew that.) The NY Times/Siena poll yesterday was great news for Kamala. Even better are the indications that she’s catching up on the economy. I think this new couple of polls, which incidentally are both from Republican firms, are outliers and don’t represent a trend. But we’ll find out shortly.

A couple new polls out this morning have Trump up by 2 in Pennsylvania: https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-breaks-ahead-kamala-harris-must-win-state-new-poll-1966085 Aggregate polling still has her ahead there, barely, so we’ll have to see if this represents a trend,

You misunderstand me (and @Horseman is simply an idiot as always.) Trump didn’t need to run to the left of Harris on Israel. All he had to do is shut up about it, and let Harris wallow in the center. Thats what Trump was basically doing on this issue for months and it was working. Now he has come out fully in support of Israel and reminding the Muslims in Michigan that he really doesn’t love them.

Whats interesting, from a solely political standpoint: Trump had the chance to win Michigan because Palestinians there don’t like how Biden has supported Israel. But if the alternative is even greater support for Israel without any restrictions at all, a lot of those Palestinians are going to end up voting for Harris. Trump is giving Michigan away.

You really need to read the discussion between me and Jerry again and ask who is being condescending to whom. He’s the one throwing out all kinds of declarative statements. I’m saying things aren’t black and white. And I don’t have any best friends that are Palestinian. I just know a few.

I didn’t create any new opinions on this issue. They all come from actual Israelis.

What the fock is with you? You attack me for giving advice the other day, you continually call me a liar, and now this bullcrap? I don’t think I’m smarter than Jerry. I just think he’s wrong about this and sees things too much in a black and white way without nuance. I get that because he reminds me of my own dad. I empathize with Jerry but I think he’s wrong. As for you if you want to get in the discussion do so. Make whatever points you want to make. But otherwise stfu.

None of the ones I know approved of October 7. They predicted, correctly, that it would lead to devastation for Gaza. None of them are in love with Hamas or Hezbollah. I asked one of the them the other day, a very smart woman who has worked as a journalist in the region, “why the overwhelming support for Hamas?” She said “because there is no one else. And right now because we are at war and when that happens you support your leaders”. That was not to me a satisfactory answer, because unlike your description of me I do not regard myself as a moral relativist. But I suspect it’s a true one. @jerryskids I know you disagree with me on this topic. I have come a very long way on my thoughts on this issue. I was raised to believe that Israel were the good guys. I have cousins in the IDF. A very close friend of my dad’s was in the Mossad. My grandmother was a Zionist and on one of the boats that Leon Uris fictionalized when he wrote Exodus. My synagogue has a huge banner on it: “We stand with Israel”. I get it. But my views have definitely changed. I still love and support Israel but I no longer believe it is wise to do so unequivocally. And I strongly resent this push on the right, which you here are partaking in, to lump any questioning of Israeli policy with support of her enemies. It’s really quite insulting. And just stupid.

It won’t. There can not be a “decisive” victory against Iran. But any strong move by Israel against Iran actually will serve to unify the Sunnis and Shia against Israel. That’s one of the many things you don’t seem to understand about this. The Abraham Accords were a trap for Israel, an attempt to enmesh them into the rivalry between the Sunnis and Iran. It actually weakens Israel’s security because it very deliberately ignores the main issue which has always been at the root of its problems- the Palestinians.