The Real timschochet

Have you guys been listening to Trump lately? His childcare answer for example? Dude should be nowhere near the White House.

Hey @Herbivore word to the wise: when @Hardcore troubadour and @EternalShinyAndChrome are calling you stupid it means you’re probably pretty brilliant.

My views are very mainstream. If I’m a laughing stock around here that says far more about around here than it does me.

No that’s pretty accurate.

Sadly there is no modern Cronkite. I wish there was. I’m not particularly a fan of Acosta.

1. There is no government media. 2. We have never had a more free and independent press than we do now. Which creates part of the problem because a lot of it (sadly, mostly on the conservative side) is simply not credible. 3. No. It really isn’t. The MSM is what it’s always been: corporate owned, depending on ratings more than any other factor, centrist, jingoistic and conservative (culturally, not necessarily politically) but generally filled with earnest people who really do try to report the news fairly and without bias.

No. I trust the MSM but that is not the same as considering them to be Gospel. They can get things wrong. I do believe that the fact that liberals and conservatives don’t have a shared source for news, that all too often we seem to believe opposing facts, is indeed a danger to democracy, so your second point is closer to accurate though not quite there.

Hmm let’s see. Every one of these assertions is completely false. Most are the exact opposite of the truth. Well done!

The endorsement by Cheney is interesting but I doubt it moves the needle much.

Most up to date polling: if you watch John King’s analysis here, Kamala’s momentum is continuing, the race is tight, but she has more pathways to victory than he does: https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/04/politics/video/polling-data-close-race-john-king-ebof-digvid In simple terms: Pennsylvania is tied. Trump needs it to win. Kamala does not; she can still win with Nevada and Georgia. She’s ahead in both places. (And that’s also conceding North Carolina to Trump which is no sure thing.)

I love freedom. Twitter or X is a private company. Musk as owner has the right to do whatever he wants with it. But I can disapprove and I do. Just because one is free to spread lies and hatred doesn’t mean it’s a good thing to do.

Is the current Republican position of mass deportation for undocumented immigrants compatible with what the Gospel preaches? Asking for a friend.

You’re right about my beliefs. I don’t believe we have concentration camps here. I don’t believe that our government prosecutes their enemies and I don’t think Donald Trump is being prosecuted for any reason other than he committed crimes and deserves to be punished for them. I don’t believe our government or institutions are inherently corrupt. I think that people who DO believe these things are generally warped and dangerous and extremist. No offense to you in particular.

I don’t see it. Allowing racists and bigots and false information to spread around the world doesn’t seem like a great result to me. And the Covid misinformation in particular is still creating a lot of unnecessary deaths. It just seems like a bunch of poison and stupidity and to lose billions on top of it? Just a whole lot of awfulness IMO.

Dude. This is a guy who throws his political opponents into concentration camps and has them poisoned, who deliberately bombs schools and hospitals. He is evil.

I really miss the days of Ronald Reagan telling us that there is good and evil in the world, there is right and there is wrong, and the United States stands up for the right- as did Winston Churchill. What happened to that Republican Party?

I see parallels between Musk and Henry Ford. Ford was brilliant, one of the most important people in American and world history. He literally changed human civilization and industry to our great benefit. But he was also an anti-Semite, a racist, an admirer of fascism, and insane. And despite all of his innovations he didn’t turn out to be such a great businessman. His refusal for a decade to upgrade the Model-T hurt his company badly and ignored the very marketplace that he created: and his obstinacy regarding unions ignored the growing middle class that he was largely responsible for. There are many similarities to Musk here.

Sure. But even so, buying a company for 40 billion and then having it end up being worth 12 billion doesn’t seem like a good result. All I’m saying.

To the contrary I’ve noted it many times before. However I don’t agree it represents a pattern. I suspect that this time around will reflect more of what we saw in 2022 in which the outrage against overturning Roe was severely underpolled. Look to see suburban women again rise up and suprise pollsters with their numbers for Kamala. As far as you calling me a hack I’ve already demonstrated why that is clearly projection on your part.

And this “drop in the polls” thing is nonsense. Let’s be clear: if somebody is 10 points down, then catches up to take a 51-49 lead, then falls behind slightly to 51-49 the other way, that’s not a “drop in the polls.” That means she’s caught up to margin of error and is still caught up. Let me know when Kamala loses 5-10 points in a poll the way Trump has. Then I will pay attention.

When did I say the polls are wrong? They’re not wrong. Kamala leads nationwide and leads or is effectively tied in all the swing states. It’s a toss up for sure but I think she’s in a favorable position. That’s been my argument all along. The post you responded to was an argument I made IN ADDITION to the polling not as an alternative.

Another big reason I continue to argue that Kamala’s momentum hasn’t died out is that her personal favorability numbers continue to increase: https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/harris-vs-trump-polls-kamala-popularity.html This is a big deal. It wins elections. The fact is that people like Kamala now that they’re getting to know her. Her numbers prior to now were based on Biden’s performance, which was based on people’s dislike of inflation (not on their dislike of Biden; as inflation becomes less of an issue his numbers are rising as well.)

If it’s within 2 points one way or the other I see it as essentially a tie.

I don’t think a half a point swing one way or the other is meaningful. I’m still looking at long term trend lines.

And people think that I am naive.