The Real timschochet

Just some evidence that @Strike is lying. This post from a month ago.

You are projecting on to me your own weaknesses. I have posted polls here that looked terrible for Biden and others that look good for Biden. If they start to look bad for him I will post those as well. You have only ever linked to polls that looked bad for him. You are guilty of everything you wrongly accuse me of. Also, are you willing now to apologize for your accusation that I have defended Hamas? That’s an ugly charge. Hamas is an evil group of murdering terrorists and I’ve never defended them.

Actually I wrote a paper on it in college. I agree with many of Moynihan’s conclusions but conservatives have twisted his ideas ever since and attempted to use them to attack ALL government led solutions to this issue, which was never his intent. (if you don’t believe me, read Moynihan’s interview with Playboy from 1973 in which he castigated conservatives for deliberately trying to misrepresent him.)

Biden continues to widen his lead (still slight but he’s ahead now in most polls) : https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2024/06/11/biden-vs-trump-2024-election-polls-biden-leads-major-poll-for-first-time-in-a-month-as-538-projects-a-tossup/ 538 now gives Biden a 53% chance of victory. Given @Strike’s professed love for 538 I’m sure he’ll be in here shortly to predict a Biden victory.

Nonsense.

Yes. Jordan (which is made up of people indistinguishable from Palestinians) and Lebanon have taken in large numbers of Palestinians. Syria, Egypt and Qatar smaller numbers.

OK- putting aside your comment on “Democrats” (I don’t equate the modern Democratic Party with southern racists but nice try) I agree that Jim Crow contributed to this problem. I SOMEWHAT agree that the War on Drugs contributed to this problem (though that’s a more complicated subject). But the Civil Rights Act? You better explain that one because it makes no sense to me.

He won’t pardon him.

I feel sad for his family. Addiction is a terrible thing. Hunter will have to face the consequences of his actions.

He was obviously guilty. And no Biden has already said there will be no pardon.

Perhaps part of it is how they come here? American blacks are the only people in our history who didn’t come here by choice. They were forcibly brought in chains. Even now that has to be a big factor.

Except that I HAVE responded to you before. Undocumented immigrants a very different group of people. They chose to leave the country they were living in, leave love ones and family and everything they knew, and risk EVERYTHING- imprisonment, starvation, even death- to come here and seek a better life. That’s an incredible force of will. I don’t think I could do it, could you? So there you have most of your answer. These are extraordinary people. In any other grouping they would represent a small minority. Among undocumented immigrants they represent the majority and that’s one reason they don’t let poverty affect them. Another reason is that the economic opportunity for them is far greater than it was where they came from- exactly the opposite of what African-Americans face in communities like Chicago. And look- you don’t have to believe me. You can reject all of my arguments if you like. But you can’t reject the statistics. Undocumented immigrants do not commit violent crimes at rates equal to native born citizens: https://www.npr.org/2024/03/08/1237103158/immigrants-are-less-likely-to-commit-crimes-than-us-born-americans-studies-find I know this is opposite of what you believe, of what Trump is telling you, but the facts are the facts. If you don’t like my reasons for it, find your own.

I do. As a liberal I believe that poverty and lack of education leads to crime and violence. African Americans in Chicago need better economic opportunity, and hope, and better chances at education. They also need better family life (that’s one area in which conservatives are right about): two parent households.

That number is probably pretty accurate but it may also be irrelevant: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4712618-over-half-of-joe-biden-supporters-say-main-reason-for-backing-is-to-oppose-donald-trump-cbs-poll/damp/?nxs-test=damp Most Biden supporters don’t love Joe but they’re voting for him anyhow because of Trump.

More good news for Biden: https://www.nj.com/politics/2024/06/major-shift-among-these-key-voters-on-biden-trump-rematch-poll-shows.html?outputType=amp The 17 point swing among independents since March is pretty stunning. But even more important, IMO, is that 20% of Republicans say they can’t vote for Trump and will sit out the election. These are the same folks who voted for Nikki Haley as a protest even after she quit the race.

This video makes a pretty good argument that Biden’s handling of OPEC was brilliant: https://www.yahoo.com/news/joe-biden-broke-opec-rewrote-151230815.html

No “Amen thanks”?

And yet violent crime is at a 50 year low: https://www.tampabay.com/news/2024/06/08/is-violent-crime-near-50-year-low-fact-check/#:~:text=The violent crime rate today,1974 (shown in red).

I believe a strong debate performance by Biden in a few weeks could give him a decisive edge.

All sorts of good news for Biden in latest polls: https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-polls-2024-joe-biden-1910443 1. Leading Trump in battleground states for the first time in months. 2. Leading Trump nationally for the first time in nearly a year (and most importantly among likely voters) 3. “Who do you trust more on the economy?” A few weeks ago Trump led this question by 11 points. Now he leads by only 3 points.

25% is a reach. I don’t think it’s close to that.

They should be jailed and fined as appropriate. Why are you always looking for the gotcha double standard? Most of us try to be consistent.

Thomas Friedman on Trump’s idiocy: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2024/06/08/thomas_friedman_trump_did_stupidest_thing_thats_been_done_in_post-cold_war_foreign_policy_by_ending_iran_nuclear_deal.html Worst foreign policy President in modern history, and he’s running against one of the best. Do we really want this disaster again??

I am certainly the opposite of anyone smart enough to get into MIT.

If anomalies were produced on a regular basis they wouldn’t be anomalies. The fact is that the the two party system has served us well for most of American history. I think it will again but we have to get past this current dreadful populist stage.