The Real timschochet

Kamala with her biggest lead yet in the polls: https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-hits-record-lead-over-trump-new-poll-shows-1934880 And what’s amazing about this is that she hasn’t really started campaigning- that begins tomorrow with her VP pick. And then the convention.

I don’t think it would be wise to respond to either subject at the moment.

My thoughts are that within the next few weeks, certainly by September, she will have a complete platform for you to look at, though we pretty much already know a lot of what it will be. In fact you can ask me what her position is on any given issue and I can tell you now what it is. I am VERY enthused about many of her positions, specifically with regard to the economy, immigration, Israel, and a woman’s right to choose. Most of all I am excited to see anyone push for globalism and repudiate Trump’s xenophobic nationalism. My further thoughts are that within a few weeks she will have given plenty of interviews, plus a press conference or two, and this whole “she’s being hidden” meme will have been forgotten, along with the fantasy that she has no depth.

“Supposedly gets 81 million votes” lololol

DO we stand arm in arm on this?? My position is that the Donald Trump, more than any other politician before him in all of our history, had encouraged political violence and that this has led to all kinds of of problems in our society and could get worse, and that there is nothing close to this in terms of rhetoric on the other side. Is that your position as well?

I don’t think this dude was a real threat. I think he was just sounding off to his right wing buddies. Still, there’s got to be some kind of penalty for posting stuff like that. Free speech shouldn’t extend that far.

Yes you’ve already made that joke. As you know it was supposed to be downturn. I removed it because I think it’s too soon to call a few days of the Dow dropping a downturn. Hopefully it’s a blip.

Latest reports are the VP pick is down to Shapiro and Walz. Kelly, the guy I wanted, appears to be out of it. I like Walz but I don’t see what he brings to the ticket. Surely Shapiro, if he can deliver Pennsylvania, makes the most sense? Plus Shapiro is centrist on a number of issues and pro-fracking, so maybe he can win over some of the Haley vote.

Virginia man arrested for death threats against Kamala: https://edition.cnn.com/2024/08/05/politics/death-threats-kamala-harris-virginia-man-arrested/index.html

I’m with you on a lot of this except for the immigration part. As climate change worsens the number of refugees from it is only going to continue to expand dramatically. If we attempt to keep them out it only creates a volatile (and ultimately untenable) situation on our borders. Far better to try and absorb them. However, I acknowledge that my opinion on this is already in the minority and that minority is bound to get smaller over the years to come.

Right. Long term I don’t believe Democrats can keep this vote as monolithic as it’s been. Black people in this country have become increasingly conservative, particularly on economic issues. They are mostly Democrats because of tradition and because Republicans don’t help themselves with certain policies and candidates (like Trump.) But nothing is forever. Typically the percentage of blacks who vote for Republicans is 10-15%. I bet a guy like Brian Kemp could get a whole lot more than that.

It certainly does help to sway my opinion when a lot of people I respect around here call the whole thing a scam and then it turns out that you’re a serious investor. It’s quite reasonable to me to assume that almost anything you come out in favor of I’m probably opposed to. But I’m still having trouble making sense of it all.

But I don’t believe that a guy wearing a MAGA hat should be treated differently by police or treated with extraordinary suspicion.

Sure, several. https://www.wvtm13.com/article/black-voter-support-appears-to-rebound-with-historic-nomination-of-kamala-harris/61784252 Some are listed in the article above (scroll down.) There are plenty of others. It looks like, at least in terms of black voting, a return to the Obama coalition. It remains to be seen if she can match the other components of that coalition (Latinos, suburban women, etc.) but it’s looking good at the moment. I avoid polls when I respond to @supermike80 because he doesn’t believe in them. To his credit he’s stayed consistent in that position for many years now.

You’ve made this argument before and while I usually disagree with you this one has given me food for thought. You may be right. But what does it mean practically? Should we make plans to eventually abandon our coastal cities?

I was in Estonia for a day on my trip this summer. We ate at a restaurant that offered bear. I tasted it; pretty gamy. Not for me.

It is true that if you simply accepted me as an authority on all of these matters your life would be much easier.

I just report the facts. The vast vast majority of black people like Kamala and will be voting for her. She has energized them like no politician since Obama. Black people aren’t monolithic and there will be plenty like @peenie- everybody gets to have their point of view. But there’s no doubt they’re a shrinking minority right now.

Hopefully the sell off is just a correction and the stock market rebounds later in the week. If it doesn’t of course it could affect the election. Which is crazy of course because Trump would only make things far worse with his trade policies. But there’s no denying this could be bad for Kamala.

But you’re referring to them as a collective. “Stop committing so many crimes.” I thought conservatives believed in individualism. But it’s OK with you that a black individual who has never committed any crimes is treated differently by police, and profiled, because other people with the same skin color have committed crimes. You’re good with that. I’m not.

Thanks, Francisco! (Danconia).

Lol! Well you misunderstand me. Though I like Kamala fine and strongly prefer her to Trump, she has plenty of faults and I honestly don’t know how good a President she will be. Hopefully we will find out. But she may disappoint me and be truly awful. My praise in the posts you’re referring to is limited to her speechmaking which I think has become wonderful in recent weeks. I’m very excited by that, I admit it. But speechmaking does not a good leader make necessarily.

I don’t regard you as a Trump supporter. In fact, based on your posts, I’m pretty sure you regard him as a scoundrel. I do think you’re very conservative, perhaps even libertarian, and if forced to choose with a gun to your head you would, very reluctantly, choose Trump over Harris because you regard her liberalism as akin to socialism and dangerous to the country. Is that an accurate description of your POV?

I didn’t hear Lincoln speak. On paper his speeches are great. But live? Who knows? Churchill has the greatest speeches of all time but the recordings are dated and he’s got a lisp so it doesn’t sound so impressive. Of the three I mentioned, I’m certainly not the only one mentioning JFK and Obama. All kinds of folks are making that comparison. So far as I know I’m the only one who has made the Reagan comparison but that’s probably because people are mentally unwilling to make analogies to somebody of the other party- their minds simply don’t go there. For whatever reason mine does.

Trump attacked Brian Kemp last night, the extremely popular Republican governor of Georgia. This seems unwise. I don’t agree with Kemp on a host of issues but I can’t help liking him. Guy has got loads of integrity. Plus there is no doubt he has done a terrific job as governor by doing things the old fashioned Republican way: cutting excessive spending and red tape, lowering taxes to encourage investment, encouraging overseas investment and trade. Thats the conservatism of Ronald Reagan that works, especially at a state level. It’s a good antithesis to the liberalism of Kamala Harris. It’s a conservatism that the national GOP should return to once Trump, hopefully, is done after this election cycle. I could never vote for Kemp because he is too socially conservative, too anti-immigrant for me. But I wouldn’t be disatisfied with him as my President. There is a lot I like. As far as Trump’s campaign is concerned I don’t think it helps him to attack Kemp.