The Real timschochet

It was reasonable to believe Smollett at the time. A lot of MAGA folks are violent and crazy. That’s still true. So his story was believable.

This is awesome. Really enjoying this.

I wrote this on May 6 and I think a lot of it remains true for both sides. But there are some changes, most of which help Kamala: 1. The black vote will be less disaffected. 2. Students are more likely to vote for her than they would have for Biden. 3. Kamala will represent a positive that people will vote FOR rather than just vote against Trump. This is the biggest surprise for me, as late as Monday afternoon I didn’t anticipate it. On the minus side for Kamala: 1. Inflation has to continue to improve. If people don’t feel the economy is getting better none of this will likely matter. Perception on this one issue remains the key ingredient for this election, IMO. 2. She’s going to get hammered on immigration. She needs to have a good answer. If she doesn’t she will lose in the places she needs to win. Should be interesting….

This is true. And even then you’ve got the Democratic Convention which means a bump for Kamala. Post Labor Day is when we will have a true sense of the race (actually this has generally always been the case.)

You know who else was betting on the young people? Obama. And he was right to do so.

No. All the young people.

Did you watch Trump’s convention speech?

I think Grandfather Trump would be more accurate.

Anecdotal I know- but my daughters are telling me that TikTok is absolutely exploding for Kamala.

No you don’t.

I think she could win Georgia. The key is if she can re-energize the Stacy Abrams black vote that caused Georgia to go blue in 2020- that’s what’s been lacking for Biden in 2024. Harris could get that back…maybe.

Kamala heavily tied to Wall Street: https://fortune.com/2024/07/22/kamala-harris-endorsements-wall-street-billionaires-donors/ So much for her supposedly being a Marxist.

They will change. Give it a few weeks.

She was never the “border czar”- that’s a term that Republicans came up with. She was put in charge of investigating the entire undocumented immigration situation- not making decisions but investigating it and coming up with proposals. What she came up with is that the entire system needs to be overhauled and that no amount of border security would solve the issue. She is correct about this. All the pollsters say this issue is her biggest weakness, but I think she can turn it right around on Trump. Not only did he instruct his guys in Congress to kill the proposed border bill, Trump’s stated solution (forcibly round up and deport 15 million people) is popular with the MAGA crowd built with nobody else.

Does Trump count?

It’s really irrelevant. Kamala Harris is about to be exposed to the American public in a way she never has before: interviews, press conferences, speeches, hopefully a debate or two. People will be able to tell how intelligent she is. The smartest President in modern American history was Jimmy Carter- he was a nuclear physicist. I don’t regard him as a very good President. I think these things are difficult to measure.

I think the discussion here has been very good, and there’s a lot of thoughtful input, including from some people I normally disagree with on these subjects.

The question is not if Kamala Harris is ready for the Presidency- she clearly is. The question is: is America ready for Kamala Harris? We have such a long history of racism and misogyny we might not be willing to accept a woman of color as President. Have we grown enough, are we mature enough to do so? Time will tell.

Your name seems to fit.

And ai was ribbing you back. Though I would have bet you if you had accepted. I don’t care about “fitting in the bored” or understanding it or whatever. I’m here to have discussion. There’s a lot of trolling and personal attacks and that bores me. You bore me often. But there’s also some good discussion and that makes it worth it for me, at least for now. The rest is nonsense.

Putting his country before himself. I know it’s not something you guys are used to…

OK but only with you. $3000 says Kamala wins the election. Even money. I won’t bet with anyone else. Winner paid day after the election by Venmo. Agreed?

Dont give them ideas.

I give her about a 55-60% chance of winning. No more bets though; I’m tapped out.

I didn’t hear it from her. I certainly hope it’s wrong. I would love to see them debate.