The Real timschochet

Nothing like we’re very likely to see this summer.

Any time you reference Polanski is how I know you’ve lost the argument. It’s your fallback when you have no reasonable rebuttal.

I understand you think it’s true. I also think it’s a ridiculous assumption, given all the waffling back and forth he’s done already. Trump’s long term views are extremely vague and almost non-existent, and the few he’s got are extremely contradictory. He thinks the tariffs will earn great wealth for the USA, they might even replace income taxes. He also thinks they will end the trade deficits (which he stupidly believes are bad for us). He also thinks they will lead to manufacturing in the USA. He also thinks they will lead to countries lining up to beg for new trade deals which he will consider granting if they kiss his ass enough. These ideas contradict each other; they can’t all happen (in point of fact none of them will happen.)

This made me smile too. I don’t need your sympathy or empathy. Me personally I try to be empathetic with most people who aren’t total jerks. But perhaps you think I am one. As far as my “feelings” go: in the last 24 hours I have posted a lot of news items about this subject, mainly about the ports, imports, and the effects which are about to hit the American consumer and the economy. These aren’t my feelings; they’re what’s being reported. But of course feel free to draw your own conclusions.

Trump isn’t worried about elections but Republicans are. Trump does care about his legacy and about public opinion, probably more than any other modern politician I can think of.

lol don’t feel bad for me. Im not panicking. Also, though I won’t discuss details here, I’m personally doing very well in this economy and will do even better if Trump’s ridiculous tax cuts go through (and they will.) I just don’t like what’s happening with the country.

China’s economy is doing very badly. They are feeling the effects before we are- there are already protests. They’re in trouble. But I don’t think we should assume from this that they will “surrender” to us, whatever that means, or even seek a deal on our terms (which are at this point unstated,) Xi runs a dictatorship; he can afford, for the time being, to ignore public discontent (Trump can’t.) And there is face involved as well, which is, culturally, even more important to China than to most other countries. This could go on for years.

First off, when I write about tariffs it’s not from the perspective of a liberal. I have a very libertarian view on this issue; it used to be the overwhelming view of most conservatives. Times have changed. But it’s certainly not a liberal view. Second, on serious issues like this I never deliberately lie. Sometimes I get my facts wrong in error and when that happens I try to acknowledge that. I don’t mind when people correct me; if I’m wrong I’m actually grateful for it. My larger points remain intact.

No thanks. I’m gonna continue to write what I think about the tariffs. If you don’t want to read it, put me on ignore. Your obtuseness in attacking me is idiotic, but that’s your choice.

Totally screwed means a long lasting recession, perhaps another Great Depression (let’s hope not.) It doesn’t mean the end of America. It doesn’t mean hoard items. I never wrote any of that. You’re the lying sack of sheet not me.

More. We now have a nationwide slump: https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2025/05/06/trump-tariffs-hit-us-exports-import-covid-level-event.html If you want to have the position that it’s fine for you, you’re not going to need any of this stuff, that’s your prerogative: this jot fine for American families. Nor for the truck drivers, or port workers or so many other aspects of the economy about to be crushed. And in the end, if it continues, it won’t be fine for you either.

And screw you too; I never bet against the USA. You probably would.

Yeah no. I haven’t written anything like this. If you’re going to mock what I wrote at least be accurate about it.

I actually hope you’re right. Here is my best hope: Trump announces trade deals with India and a few other countries next week and then, very quietly, allows the tarrifs with China to lapse and enters negotiations. Then the pain will hopefully not be terrible and by the late summer we MIGHT recover. Maybe. All the MAGA folks will gloat and call it a huge win but I don’t care. The point is we’ll be back on track. If this doesn’t happen we’re totally screwed. Even if it does happen it may already be too late to avoid a major downturn.

Hey me too.

We won’t need to let you know.

Since you quoted me I should clarify that while you correctly stated my position, I don’t see it as a “play”, or part of any game. It’s based on a core belief of mine: everybody gets due process, no matter how inconvenient. Whether or not one is American is irrelevant to me since I regard due process as an inalienable human right. Any country that regularly deprives anyone of due process is by its very nature a criminal state.

Americans want Abrego Garcia returned 53-21%: https://today.yougov.com/politics/articles/52094-what-do-americans-believe-about-kilmar-abrego-garcia makes me hopeful. We seem to be emerging from our nativist idiocy. We’ll see,

The India deal will be good news if it happens. But it’s not winning. It’s like scoring a touchdown when we’re down 40 points.

No it isn’t.

Ford expects losses of 1.5 billion: https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/ford/2025/05/05/ford-suspends-annual-earnings-guidance-because-of-tariffs/83456362007/ Layoffs coming.

“Liberation Day” may very well be the single worst decision by a President in American history, given the fact that it’s unilateral.

Don’t kill the messenger. What’s about to happen (what’s already happening) won’t change whether I stay or go.

The supply chain crisis during the worst of Covid has already been exceeded. We just haven’t seen this yet on the retail shelves yet. But we will likely within days all over the country.

The Port of Long Beach, very close to my house is the largest port for containers in the USA. We are looking at a 40% reduction. Catastrophe.