The Real timschochet

Hey man it’s possible. Trust me I know. I’ve been in Amsterdam a week now and I’m still tired. I want this to be true. Let it be so,

What about my bills? If Joe bows out I’m gonna owe some people around here a lot of money…

Que sera sera

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/05/08/biden-immigration-border-crossings-decline/ Down 40% since the beginning of the year. A combination of US and Mexico cracking down. Hopefully this will be less of an issue in November?

As I wrote a few days ago it all depends on the polls. If Biden falls further behind he will quit the race. If he doesn’t he won’t. We will know pretty shortly:

I think this is dated. Biden is going to give George Stephanopolis an unscripted interview this weekend. I think he will cement his position at that point. I also believe that the immunity decision has given him a huge boost.

I do. And I think the Supreme Court immunity decision has given Biden a huge lifeline. And a real chance at still winning.

I think we’ve had that issue since Andrew Jackson. It’s up to the courts to adjudicate. Not sure however, how this ties into my post.

I think it was legit. Honest opinion. And I strongly disagree with you and @Patented Phil on this- if that trial wasn’t legit Trump would have been acquitted. But the evidence was overwhelming . I am also confused as to why the sentencing would be delayed. How could reimbursing Michael Cohen possibly be construed as an “official duty”? That makes no sense whatsoever.

I made this point earlier- but it’s also equally true for many of those who are cheering the decision. Ive had a day to think about this decision and I remain troubled by it. I think it gives too much power to the President, any President. I think that we should have trusted our legal system, that if there had been an unfair prosecution, a jury of 12 citizens would have given a quick and easy acquittal. I think that there are times in which a President can commit crimes that are also official acts and that we need to have the option to prosecute those crimes. Thats where I stand as of now. Good arguments can always change my mind.

This is not my understanding of the decision. If you can’t be tried it’s more than a presumption. Also the American way is the presumption of innocence not the presumption of immunity.

Maybe, Goldwater was convinced he was and convinced Nixon of the same. We’ll never know: But times have changed. I don’t think Nixon gets convicted by the Senate in 2024, to paraphrase Trump, POTUS could murder someone on 5th Avenue and it wouldn’t matter. The bottom line is that neither of our two major political parties would be willing to give up power to the other side. (And yes I know that technically it wouldn’t because the power passes to the VP, but we all know that it would be a landslide for the other side in the next election. And no party would ever allow that. So it will never happen.)

I did address this. 67 votes are required to remove a President under impeachment. I believe this is an impossible goal.

It is. But it creates a precarious situation because, at least IMO, we’re about to elect a President who is quite willing to break the law in order to pursue corrupt goals. I know you disagree with me about this as regards to Trump, and believe my description better describes Biden. But suppose either of us are right? Hasn’t the SC just removed the guardrails?

It seems to me that the fear of prosecuting a former President for political reasons is valid, but ultimately solved by the system in place. My argument is that if Trump or Biden or whoever is prosecuted for what are clearly political reasons a jury of 12 will acquit them.

But see the partisan thing is part of the problem. No true impeachment is possible because the Senate is too partisan; you’ll never get 67 votes. But McConnell told us don’t worry about it because, in the case of Trump, the courts would take care of it. Now the courts tell us no they won’t take care of it, impeachment is the way to take care of it. It seems to me that everyone is passing the buck.

I agree with this. On the other hand, both Trump and Biden have been accused of pressuring foreign leaders to do things for personal corrupt reasons. Suppose either accusation is correct: should they be immune from prosecution because these acts were “official”? I would say not. And what happens if a President orders real war crimes or crimes against humanity? Not collateral damage from bombing but the real thing? Suppose a future President decides to order torture, or false imprisonment? Suppose AOC becomes President, doesn’t like Fox News, and orders its top journalists arrested? Woodrow Wilson did it 100 years ago. So did Abe Lincoln. Putin and Victor Orban do it. Should there be no consequence? As you wrote these are tough questions and I don’t have good answers.

While I continue to be unsure about this decision, I can say this: the reaction to it, here and elsewhere, sucks. Because it’s become part of the stupid game. Basically almost everyone who is on Trump’s side likes this decision. Almost everyone who is opposed to Trump hates this decision. This goes for Trump himself. He says he strongly approves of what the Court did. But we all know that he has no real clue exactly what it did, only that it favors him. And if the shoe was on the other foot he would damn the decision of course. But that’s to be expected because he’s so transactional. Unfortunately so many others are too. AOC really pisses me off too. She wants to impeach SC justices because she disagrees with them? Fock her. I’ve defended her a lot in the past but this is ridiculous.

Which is why I wrote I’m unsure and uncomfortable. I also don’t understand exactly what is and what is not an official act. For example: Nixon authorizes a bunch of thugs to break into the Watergate hotel Democratic headquarters. I assume that is NOT an official act. But then, when the attorney general (Elliot Richardson) calls for an investigation, Nixon fires him- I assume that IS an official act. Yet the latter act was just as corrupt as the former act- perhaps more so. So based on this ruling Nixon gets away with Watergate? I don’t know, just asking.

I see your argument. I’m honestly not sure. I’m torn on this. As I wrote it makes me uncomfortable. I don’t know if I’m against it.

I’ve always understood it. I just don’t agree with it. I don’t agree with defunding police either.

Agreed.

Hey there @Strike! Hope you’re having a good summer. Yes the vast majority of undocumented immigrants do not commit violent crimes. Not all, but the vast majority. Thats what the statistics say.

If Biden stays in (and most signs indicate he will) then the message of his campaign comes down to 4 words: Trump would be worse. Thats the bottom line. Rather than defend Biden’s cognitive abilities, or try to dissuade voters who disapprove of his policies to change their minds, the campaign needs to pound away at this message and hope that enough voters will believe it to be true. Because it is true. Will such a message succeed for Biden? Gonna be tough. It’s an uphill battle at this point.

With regard to replacing Joe Biden- my strong feeling is that if the polls that come out in a week or so show a significant change as a result of the debate then he will be convinced to quit. If they don’t show that he won’t. All the talk occurring now on either side of this issue is just that- talk- until we get those poll numbers. Then we’ll see.