The Real timschochet

More new polling not so good for Trump: https://abcnews.go.com/amp/Politics/plurality-americans-trumps-guilty-verdict-correct-hush-money/story?id=110744698 As I wrote before: I DO trust all of these new polls. But I’m concerned that they will last. Right now the idea of Trump as a felon is a new thing. But as the public gets used to it I think their minds will return to more bread and butter concerns- which means inflation. We’ll see.

It’s spelled “lying”. And I didn’t do it, and that’s the last I will comment on it because you bore me.

The analogies that Jon brings up whenever Trump gets into trouble are always fascinating. This one, regarding black jurors, is kind of mild. Usually there is no jury, just a rope hanging from a lonely tree somewhere. And even more likely than that a train ride to Auschwitz.

Bullsh!t. I didn’t discount 538; I thought at the time you were referring to an older set of polls which were outdated after the State of the Union. And they were but the numbers quickly reversed themselves again. So I made a mistake and as soon as I realized it I corrected myself. It wasn’t a flip flop. And you’ve mentioned it now at least a dozen times. As always you’re obsessed with whenever I get something wrong. It’s really kind of disturbing, but whatever.

This thread is supposed to be about the election. But in terms the trial, I read your post and your 7 points. I think you’re 100/% wrong.

You’re confusing me with @supermike80. I generally trust polls. That’s why I’ve been so troubled lately. I’m gladdened by the current poll results but I fear they’re a snapshot. I still believe that, despite all other factors, if inflation is bad in November then Trump is going to win. I expect the worst. Hopefully I’m wrong.

Not saying this will happen but if Biden wins the popular vote by 54% he will win the election.

The public doesn’t appear to be buying the line that this is a sham conviction- at least not so far. Most Republicans buy it (around 85% of them) but the rest of us not so much.

54% of the public approve of the conviction: https://pro.morningconsult.com/analysis/donald-trump-polling-guilty-verdict-jury-trial

This one doesn’t look good either: https://pro.morningconsult.com/analysis/donald-trump-polling-guilty-verdict-jury-trial 54% of Americans approve of the conviction.

1. I don’t believe Hillary should have been prosecuted. 2. I don’t believe Biden should have been prosecuted. 3. I do believe Hunter should have been prosecuted. And he has been, I think his trial begins next week. Each case is different and depends on the details. How does that make me dirty?

I don’t think Trump is the equivalent of a mob boss. I used that example only to counter arguments about Bragg’s campaign promises. But I also don’t believe the NY District Attorney’s office is the equivalent of the NKVD (Stalinist Russia). I think these extremist analogies are rather silly. I believe Trump committed a crime here and he was rightfully convicted. It was a white collar crime and it deserves to be treated as a felony with probably a little jail time. It’s not rape or murder or anything on that level. But it’s a crime nonetheless. I don’t believe he was prosecuted solely for political reasons, and I don’t believe he was prosecuted unjustly, so if those are your conclusions then I disagree with you.

This seems very Christian to me. Amen. Thanks.

Which, if true, is better for Biden than it was a few days ago, when every poll gave Trump a 3-4 point lead. But- following the State of the Union there was a surge for Biden but after about a month it went away and polls reverted to what they were before. We’ll see if that happens again. In the end it still comes down to inflation IMO. If it’s still bad, or even perceived as bad, in November. I think Trump has to be the favorite. Hope I’m wrong.

When I was a kid, even when I was a young adult, your POV about this prevailed. It was considered OK in society to be bigoted against gay people, and they were not allowed to marry, or be in the military, and it was OK to shun them. We live in a different society today, a woke society, and I’m really happy about it, though obviously many people aren’t, including you. But we won’t go back. I’m proud of what has been achieved and think that it’s terrific that people want to celebrate it.

So Jews aren’t the only ones you hate. Not surprising:

Another bad one for Trump: https://www.axios.com/2024/06/01/poll-trump-conviction-election-independent-voters

This reminds me so much of the crazy fans when Michael Jackson was on trial.

Initial poll after the verdict not good for Trump: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-verdict-makes-significant-number-republicans-less-likely-support-him-poll.amp It’s early yet, though.

Supposed to have great casinos there.

Roger Daltry. OK Maybe not. But I’d vote for him.

You know, there is no force on Earth that could ever turn me into a Trump fan, but the fact that @weepaws doesn’t like him makes me at least consider it…

https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/31/tech/threats-doxxing-trump-jurors/index.html

As to your first point we will find out in a year or so. As to your second point- I already addressed this in a previous post: Alvin Bragg certainly campaigned on prosecuting Donald Trump just as Rudy Giuliani campaigned on prosecuting John Gotti years ago. District Attorneys in New York are elected. Perhaps they shouldn’t be but that’s a separate debate. However your argument implies you believe that Bragg wanted to prosecute Trump because Trump is the Republican candidate for President. That’s not the case, IMO. I don’t think Bragg would have promised to prosecute Trump, or done so, unless he believed that Trump was actually a criminal. Furthermore I don’t believe the voters of NYC would have elected Bragg for such a campaign unless they also believed that Trump is a criminal. Lastly I don’t believe Trump would have been convicted by a jury of 12 unless they believed he was a criminal. You, and many other conservatives, have a cynicism for the whole process which I don’t share.

Hopefully they’ll change their minds.