The Real timschochet

https://www.vox.com/politics/24092798/mark-robinson-north-carolina-governors-race-2024 How many typical black conservatives like to quote Hitler, deny the Holocaust, reject the moon landing, and believe that women shouldn’t be allowed to vote?

Have you listened to this particular black conservative?

Always. But in this case I heard excepts of speeches from Mr. Robinson, saying some really crazy sh!t, and then Donald Trump calling him the next MLK. So I didn’t need much interpretation to form an opinion.

Hard to find a candidate for major office in this country worse than Donald Trump but this Mark Robinson fellow, the new Republican nominee for governor of North Carolina, seems to fit the bill. I had never heard of the guy until a few days but damn what a whackjob. Of course Trump calls him a new Martin Luther King only much better.

i strongly doubt it’s going to be a big win or a big loss- either would very much surprise me. I’m expecting a win but a loss won’t surprise me either. Will I be depressed? Sure for a few days or so. But I’ll wish Trump well (so long as the country does well), I’ll pay my debts (I’m gonna owe a few people around here some money) and then keep on fighting the good fight. We will survive. But I’m not expecting or looking forward to that outcome.

@shadrap I have no idea if you’re a Trump fan in particular but you’re definitely a conservative and, based on this post and others you’re opposed to Ukraine funding and believe in a hardline against undocumented immigration, which puts you firmly in the Trump camp this time around. Now there’s no doubt that when we poll the public a majority thinks that the country is not moving in the right direction- heck even I would agree with that and I’m very much an optimist. But I don’t think everyone would share your specific reasons for thinking so. So if you believe that everybody who is pissed is going to automatically vote for Trump to come back I’m just not convinced that will be the case.

I listened to Chuck Todd give some analysis today and I thought he sounded smart. One thing he said that fascinated me: even with the current border crisis, even with the majority of the nation concerned about it, he’s still not convinced it will be much of factor in November. His point was this: the border and undocumented immigration is most important to conservatives but they’re voting for Trump anyhow. It’s least important to Democrats and they’re voting for Biden anyhow. That leaves the independents, and Todd thinks they are very concerned about the border but not enough to make it a priority issue. Todd also doesn’t think that either Ukraine or crime or the threat to democracy are priority issues either. So what, according to Chuck Todd, are the issues that will actually move the needle with independents? Economy, inflation, dislike of either candidate, and abortion, not necessarily in that order.

Wow. I couldn’t disagree with you more strongly. An intractable lead? Hardly. In fact I don’t think it’s any kind of real lead at all. As I’ve said all along this race hasn’t begun yet because the majority of the public isn’t paying attention and they haven’t accepted that it’s Trump vs Biden. Once they do, and it still may not happen for a few months or until the conventions- the numbers will change. Even then, this election is going to come down to a handful of states- mainly Pennsylvania and Michigan. It will be close no doubt but I firmly believe that Biden will win. I do agree with you that the legal cases won’t move the needle.

So over the next few days I plan on using this thread to examine Donald Trump’s campaign promises in detail. I will look at what he has said on a variety of issues, and offer my opinion.

No none of it. I hate all of it. I’m for a totalitarian regime along the lines of Chairman Mao’s PRC. I can’t wait for the Great Leap Forward.

As I wrote last night Adam Schiff will win easily. But his opponent Steve Garvey is a boyhood hero of mine, so now I have the excuse to post some fond memories: Steve, you could lose a thousand elections, you could pose with Donald Trump (that will likely happen), you could be MAGA all day and I will always love you. Why aren’t you in the Hall of Fame? Thats a travesty.

Your first point is only true in a swing state. But I do believe that in a swing state it IS true. In most elections it wouldn’t matter. In 2000, for example, votes for Ralph Nader in Florida helped George W Bush defeat Al Gore. So what? i didn’t care. If folks want to vote for Nader that’s their right. But this election is different because IMO Trump represents an existential threat. So I think it should be all hands on deck. I completely reject your second point. Fock the Democratic Party. I never hope for bad things to happen so that the guys I like better might win later on. That’s Trumpian thinking and I frigging hate it. There were liberals during Trump’s last time as President who wanted the economy to fail so that Trump would lose in 2020. There were liberals who were happy that Covid was such a disaster and Trump was so inept because they hoped it meant that Biden would defeat him. Fock all of them, if Trump wins this time around, I agree with you that it will likely be a catastrophe. But I won’t be rooting for it. If he wins I will wish him well and honestly hope, as I did last time, that his actions bring us prosperity and good things. Because to me that’s what being an American is all about.

1. Yes I think Swalwell has integrity. 2. Donald Trump is now the de facto Republican nominee for President. He represents an existential threat IMO to the future of this country as a free democratic republic. Therefore I don’t think any amount of attention paid to him right now is excessive. When Trump is out of politics and in prison where he belongs, rest assured I’ll stop thinking about him.

This isn’t a good description of me as in the past I’ve rarely voted for the Democratic Party, or any party consistently. Honestly I’ve been pretty middle of the road. But Donald Trump has taken the Republican Party and turned it into something I don’t recognize and detest. Perhaps it was always that way, I don’t know. But I can’t support a party that is xenophobic, isolationist, anti-immigrant and anti-trade. I won’t do it, their beliefs go against everything that I fundamentally believe in. So for the foreseeable future I will be voting Democratic all up and down the ticket. When and if the GOP becomes the party of Reagan again, I’ll reconsider.

Right. People now need to realize that voting for any 3rd party candidate is meaningless unless it’s in a swing state, and then it’s a vote for Trump. And not voting is meaningless unless it’s in a swing state and then it’s a vote for Trump with a few exceptions.

He’s alright. I don’t mind him. He’s got integrity for sure. But Schiff is in a different league. Smart, eloquent, incisive, far seeing, and generally right on the important stuff.

So Haley’s out, Hopefully for those who haven’t been paying attention, this will crystallize the stark choice we have before us: it’s Biden or Trump. That’s it; there are no other options. The sooner the American people fully realize and accept this, the better.

You can say I’m a dreamer, but I’m not the only one. (Which you will discover, to your regret, this November.)

She’s a good woman. I met her at a pro-abortion rally last year.

Update- and it is Steve Garvey! So Adam Schiff will be our next Senator. Not bad. I will miss Katie Porter in the House. Hopefully she returns in 2026.

The votes for Haley are still around 25-30% in each state Trump is winning, even in the closed primary states where Dems can’t vote. The obvious question is how many of these folks will vote for Trump in November. If at least half of them vote for Biden or stay home in the swing states, Trump is in deep trouble. But there’s no way to predict this right now.

Steve Garvey appears to be doing very well early. And that is good for Schiff. Schiff didn’t want to face Katie Porter. Facing Garvey guarantees Schiff the senate seat,

Thanks but I will decline the offer of being penstrated by you. In a related topic after I looked it up last night I discovered that Gender Queer is available on Kindle for free. So now I plan to read it. I will keep you guys updated.

Thank you. I enjoy Reason magazine and the Cato Institute. If I sound like them that’s quite the compliment.

If you’re correct about this the appeals court will throw the case out. We’ll see. But the judge, and several legal experts I have listened to, have dismissed your points here which were largely made by Trump’s attorneys.