The Real timschochet

You know what the main difference between us is Jon? It’s that I think you’re wrong but I don’t think you’re evil. And you think that I’m both wrong and evil.

Exit polling says the number one issue is illegal immigration. Iowa has 37,000 illegal immigrants: less than 2% of the population. The scapegoating on this issue, on the Republican side, is frightening.

Except that’s not what he wrote. Read it again.

If people are willing to call themselves that I wouldn’t term it pejorative. Do you think people resent this label? Everyone I’ve ever known who says they belong to this group seems pretty proud of it.

I laughed.

Millions of Americans identify themselves that way. So I would start with that: those who refer to themselves as evangelicals. I used to think it meant Protestant religious Christians who believe in the Rapture, among other specific beliefs, but it’s probably broader than that.

So here is the Biden people’s view of how this goes down: 1. Starting tonight, Trump wins the GOP nomination fairly easily. 2. At least one or more of the criminal trials against Trump take place before the election (most likely the Jan 6 one) and he is convicted, 3 The economy and inflation continue to slightly improve. 4. MOST IMPORTANT: When Democrats and independents realize, sometime in the next few months, that the election is a binary choice between Trump and Biden, Biden consolidates their support, they return to the fold, and Biden wins a relatively easy victory. While a lot could go wrong with this plan, personally I think it’s the most likely outcome.

Yes you’re expressing what most conservatives believe I think. Traditional Republican positions on immigration, trade, and our international role as the defender of democracy are no longer the popular pov of Republicans in general.

DeSantis would be wise to drop out tonight and endorse Trump. (At least, wise in terms of his political future.)

After New Hampshire. in those days sitting Presidents didn’t announce their candidacy for re-election. LBJ had people on the ground though in New Hampshire and he was on the ballot. When McCarthy surprised with a strong 2nd place showing based solely on a platform of an end to the Vietnam War, LBJ decided not to go any further.

The universally hated part was what I was trying to get at. You could make the argument that over the years McConnell has done far more for evangelicals than Trump, and unlike Trump, McConnell is a very religious man. Yet they really dislike him, and love Trump.

They’re dissecting Ron DeSantis’ collapse. Anyone besides me think that, even if Trump hadn’t been in the race, DeSantis would still have lost? He just has no personality. I think maybe if Trump had bowed out someone like Vivek would have taken it over DeSantis.

If Trump wins by the projected numbers, who cares who comes in 2nd?

The bond between Trump and evangelical voters is an emotional one. It is very strong. Actually appears unbreakable. It’s fascinating on so many levels. They can make the argument that, transactionally, Trump gave them 3 Supreme Court Justices and an end to Roe. But in truth Mitch McConnell had as much to do with that as Trump did and I don’t think evangelicals feel any link to McConnell. In fact they don’t like Mitch very much. No this goes deeper than abortion IMO.

Good luck to the Bills! Good game, hope you get to the SB.

I didn’t really mean that about Bills fans. They’re good people. I just hope they leave unhappy today.

Well let’s hope so. But I don’t think he’s going to beat Biden anyhow.

Die hard Steelers fan here hoping for the best. But…when’s the last time any away team has ever won, or even performed well, in one of these really cold games? It’s always the home team in these situations.

The Iowa voters who are willing to brave this weather in order to support our democratic system are heroes to me, regardless of who they vote for. I wish them all well and admire them. The Bills fans can kiss my ass.

In this issue, other than your instinctive “gotta blame the libs” shtick, you sound like a very reasonable fellow.

This is very different. Haley may be from South Carolina, but she is far less popular there than Trump.

For once I agree with you 100%.

Most of Haley’s support comes from independents. So even if she does well in Iowa or New Hampshire, even if somehow she wins New Hampshire, it’s impossible to see how she goes anywhere from there. Most of the other states, starting with South Carolina, only allow registered Republicans to vote. And they’re heavily for Trump. The media wants a contest, because they want ratings (always their primary motivation.) But it really isn’t one. Trump will be the nominee, that’s it.

I suppose one can be both.

Umm your boy Trump doesn’t want Vivek to shock.