The Real timschochet

I don’t think it was 20 times. I don’t know how many times it was. All I can tell you is that I engaged in a long personal one on one discussion with Joe Bryant and he told me that while he was strongly considering shutting the whole thing down, I was NOT the reason. I tried to talk him out of it. I’m done posting about this. I probably shouldn’t have posted about this so much already; it’s a waste of time and not especially interesting, but I get a little sick and tired of all the lies told about me by the same people, including you. Your obsession with me is exhausting. Anyhow, done.

I guess believe what you want but this is 100% complete and total bullsh!t.

Well, feel free to call me delusional then because I don’t think I was part of the problem at all. Yes I posted quite a lot. That I don’t deny. But my posts were, as they were here, mostly issue oriented. The only time I engaged in personal insults in when I was goaded into it, unfortunately. MAGA jerks would personally insult me knowing that I wouldn’t report them; then I would respond in turn and they would report me and I got suspended a few times. Then they would post that I was the source of all problems in the forum and recommend it be shut down. The whole thing was deliberate. I finally got sick of it and after being suspended for a week left voluntarily for a month. During that month Joe shut the forum down. I was already gone and had nada to do with it.

This, I’m afraid, is hopeful nonsense. Unless Trump reverses course, the stock market disaster represents only the start of the catastrophic effects the tariffs will have on our economy, both short term and long term. Short term, we’re looking at an almost certain recession, possibly worse, and high inflation. Long term we’re looking at a contraction as China and Europe simply replace us as the trading giants worldwide. This isn’t a blip. It’s a total disaster. ETA- But I remain hopeful that Trump reverses course. We’ll know shortly if some face-saving “deals” are announced.

They didn’t contradict me. Why do you refuse to accept the idea that the MAGA crowd over there were a$$holes? They’re the ones who deliberately got that forum shut down.

The astonishing part is that you think what I wrote is revisionist.

Up 1200 points this morning but it’s almost completely based on the belief that Trump is either going to reverse the tariffs or announce new deals with important trading partners that will effectively nullify them. If neither of those happen expect the market to crater again.

Sorry you had a bad experience but what I wrote was completely accurate.

Read those posts again. He was advising everyone to post less, not just me. Shortly after that we had a private conversation in which I offered to leave the board if he thought I was creating a problem for him, and he said no and urged me not to. He never threatened me, he never warned me. The warning that @Captain Obvious linked was related to a specific incident, not to my overall posting in the board. I didn’t lie. And the FBG shutting down had nothing to do with me. It was dudes like Tonydead trying to get it shut down.

Dow futures up 700 points tonight based on reporting that Lutnick is out, and Trump will pull back on the tariffs tomorrow. Hope that’s right; we’ll see.

It sure is. I wanted it to be “my place” and lost my mind when conservatives showed up? Where do they get this? Also, FTR: Joe never once warned me about anything. He never once advised me to post less. He never once wrote publicly or told me privately that I was harming the forum, and we did have several public and private conversations on a variety of subjects. He threatened to shut the forum down, and finally did shut it down, because he couldn’t stop the personal insults and mass reporting. And as I wrote before 90% of that came from conservatives and MAGA folks, some of them who have posted in this thread. Many of them wanted the subforum shut down and continued their insults and reporting knowing it would happen.

Best of luck Jerry. You’re a good dude.

I’m ready to cheer on Trump with this talk of open borders. Open borders for people, trade, whatever he meant I’m good with it! More of this please.

If the head coach of your favorite football team announced that his new strategy is to run the ball up the middle on every down regardless of position, score, situation, etc. how much time would you give him?

I can’t answer you because I don’t know what eliminating trade deficit means with a country like Israel. Certainly free trade is preferable to trade barriers. But if a large economy wants to trade with a small one there is always going to be a trade deficit. That’s why none of this makes any sense.

How is Israel eliminating their trade deficit to our benefit?

Well anyhow I’m sure China will respond well to this threat right? Of course they’ll surrender…

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2025/04/07/stocks-trump-trade-war/82968270007/ Trump warns China: if they don’t remove their new 34% tariff by April 9, we will impose am additional 50% tariff on China.

And here is the rub: you and nearly everyone else I have read that have defended these tariffs, continue to assert that they are a means for the United States to negotiate better trade terms for ourselves. But Trump himself insists that they are an end to themselves designed to bring back manufacturing to America. And he has made this same argument for the past 40 years; it’s by far the most consistent issue he’s ever had. I hope you’re right. I suspect now that you aren’t. We’ll know relatively soon.

Logically I agree with you. But again we have the fact that Vietnam’s offer to remove all tariffs was rejected, and we have the second fact that Trump says the tariffs are here to stay until all “trade imbalances” are removed. Those two facts indicate to me that Trump is being illogical. Again, perhaps he will change his mind. I hope he does. But I wouldn’t be willing to guarantee that, would you?

I based that post on Trump’s statements on this subject made yesterday to reporters. What is the nature of your disagreement?

It’s only good news if the U.S. accepts the offer. So far we haven’t. Vietnam made a similar offer and we rejected it. Trump said yesterday that other nations offering to remove tariffs would not be enough; they have to do away with the “trade imbalance”.

Let’s take a look at this assertion: https://www.newsweek.com/vietnam-offer-remove-tariff-trump-trade-peter-navarro-2056149 Vietnam offered to remove all tariffs. The White House rejected it. Trump says he wants an end to the “trade imbalance.” But Vietnam, being a country with nowhere near the economy of the USA, cannot possibly have even trade with the USA. So the demand makes no sense. Which means there can be no deal and in Trump’s mind this is not about reciprocal tariffs. Now he could change his mind, but unless he does there aren’t going to be these deals you’re talking about. The tariffs are here to stay. Trump doesn’t want a deal with Vietnam, he wants Americans to buy products made in America instead of those imported from Vietnam.

What I wrote is that almost all economists believe these tariffs are a disaster. Perhaps that is absolutist, but the fact is I haven’t been able to find one who thinks otherwise. Now I have found plenty of political thinkers, some quite smart, who have defended these tariffs or who believe they will work for various reasons. (And some have made compelling arguments based on one principle- that principle being that Trump’s ultimate goal is to get other nations to lower their tariffs. If that is truly his goal, then perhaps this will work. But if it isn’t his goal then these arguments fail.) But no economists. At least not one that I can find. Is that nuanced enough for you?

Beat me to it.