The Real timschochet

I’m starting this thread to discuss the Presidential race, trying to determine who has got the advantage. Not interested in arguing about who I or anyone else WANTS to win, there’s plenty of threads for that, Only an up to date breakdown of who is likely to win. So here are my thoughts as of May 6, 2024, based on what I’m reading: 1. It’s pretty much a dead heat between Biden and Trump. 2. Trump has a slight lead among all voters. Biden has a slight lead among likely voters. However both leads are within the margin of error, 3. Trump has a slight lead in most of the battleground states. But this lead was significantly larger 4-5 months earlier; Biden has closed the gap. 4. RFK JR and the other third party candidates currently have about 8% of the vote. Conventional wisdom suggests that these are votes that Biden would otherwise receive but that is not clear. History suggests that this number will go down as the election gets closer and that come November, it will be nowhere near 8%. 5. Some polling suggests that if Trump is convicted in the hush money trial that will lose him a significant amount of support. I am extremely skeptical of this. 6. On the main issues that voters claim to be most concerned with, such as the economy, crime, inflation, the border, international affairs, Trump has a commanding 10-12 point advantage in all of these issues. Biden leads in character (though not by much) and on abortion (by a lot.). There’s a lot more but any thoughts on this so far?

Your first assertion is wrong. The 1930s was far worse for socialism and there are virtually NO Communists in the Democratic Party.

Yeah I admit I’m having a hard time picturing a bunch of Paris and Chelsea soccer fanatics rooting for Donald Trump. Not really buying it.

Hey you asked me where I got my info from and I showed you. It’s up to you if you want to accept it or not. Your “all liberals are Commies” screed is old, tiresome and total bullsh!t. But if you need to believe that in order to make yourself feel better, up to you. Myself I’m enjoying life knowing that most of the crap that Trump is doing is temporary and will be reversed very shortly. In the meantime there’s going to be a lot of pain, more for you than for me, and I hate to see that, but then I didn’t vote for the guy so what can I do?

I didn’t lose.

Well I don’t hate anyone. I can understand others doing so depending on the circumstances. But I still find it stupid,

I didn’t lose. I wasn’t on the ballot.

I can understand hating them, or other evil people. I’ll give you that. There is true evil in this world. But hating somebody here? Or any American politician? Silly.

I support President Trump’s decision to send missiles to Ukraine and give Russia a 50 day deadline for a ceasefire. This is a good move.

Stupid to hate anyone in this forum. (Actually stupid to hate anyone period. Hatred is pointless.)

I stand by my comment. I know you don’t want to believe it, don’t want to admit it to yourself. But I think it’s accurate. We’re going to be able to sort out the good from the bad pretty shortly here. Those who agree with Joe Rogan on this, who voted for Trump in order to get tough at the border and deport violent criminals, but who are upset about rounding up folks at Home Depot- some of them may be misguided, but they’re the good guys. Those who blindly insist on mass deportation of all undocumented immigrants no matter what the circumstances, like you do- you are the bad guys and I call you bigots. And you’re going to lose.

Actually that issue is the least significant IMO. The people who are most bothered by that issue are also the most willing to be duped by Trump.

Polling on tariffs: https://www.politico.com/news/2025/07/12/donald-trump-trade-poll-00449708 Polling on Big Beautiful Bill: https://www.newsweek.com/trump-big-beautiful-bill-approval-polling-2096570 Polling for Mass Deportation: https://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/amp/rcna218321 When Trump is wayyy underwater on his three main issues, that’s how you know a storm is brewing. Better get ready.

But see I’m not predicting gloom and doom. I’m predicting a happy ending. A blue wave is a GOOD result. All the bad news has already happened; we just haven’t completely felt it yet.

I want other conservatives around here to admit to sharing your racist fears. You’re open and honest about it; they’re not.

Mass deportation is incredibly unpopular with the American public: https://edition.cnn.com/2025/07/13/politics/deportations-backfiring-trump-analysis

A lot of this is liberals discontented with Democrats for not standing up to Trump. And it doesn’t matter. The tariffs, the big beautiful bill, and mass deportations are all so incredibly unpopular with the American people that 2026 is going to be a huge blue wave.

Why don’t you guys just admit this is all about the racial makeup of the country? You’re afraid it’s getting browner.

It’s inevitable no matter what. At the end of Trump’s term there will be more undocumented immigrants than when you started. As for Mexico: the state I live in, California, was stolen from Mexico, as was Texas, Arizona, New Mexico. The southwest of the USA has always had open migration because, frankly, those of Mexican descent have as much right to be here as we do.

It isn’t. Unless you’re willing to throw open legal immigration to most of those from our southern border who want to come here, undocumented immigration is inevitable and a net positive.

A better idea is to properly fund federal rescue services and stop cutting their budgets.

That’s simply not true.

And yet you can’t say it’s not well-deserved.

If carried out to any large degree, mass deportation will raise prices on literally every aspect of our lives, from homes to the supermarket to dining out- every aspect. Violent crime will actually increase not decrease (violent crime goes up statistically whenever the economy gets worse.) There is no positive to mass deportation. None.

Trump on Saturday: MAGA just forget about this conspiracy theory, there’s nothing there, concentrate on other conspiracy theories! (Like the stolen 2020 election.) Personally I am always highly skeptical of conspiracies and my strong hunch (that’s all it is) is that Pam Bondi is telling the truth: there’s no actual client list, there’s nothing there. Epstein killed himself. But Trump and his allies helped foster the theory that there was more there in order to energize the MAGA base before the 2024 election, so if they don’t believe him they have only themselves to blame. Bur still, I have to ask: of all the times that Trump has told outright lies, made bigoted, offensive comments, committed crimes against the country, attempted to divide us and do harm, shown incompetence and schemed for authoritarian power, and shattered our image as a nation, THIS is the issue that might turn MAGA against him? How embarrassing for them.