The Real timschochet

I don’t think that’s a trait of liberals or conservatives. It is however a trait of an admirable person. I’m not happy you were wrong about this. I would have greatly preferred it if you had been right.

@RLLD you wrote that it would be “rather easy for Mexico to step up and avoid these tariffs entirely”. Do you still fell that way? What exactly should Mexico have done?

AOC is hoping this happens. Which is why I’m guessing it won’t. It’s just talk.

OK an argument could be made that we shouldn’t have trade imbalances when it comes to items important to national security. But that’s very few trade goods. The vast majority of trade involves items that have nothing to do with security but which gives our lives pleasure: avocados for instance. Why would a trade imbalance with those be bad for us?

I don’t realize this. I have no idea what concessions we’re trying to get out of Canada and Mexico who we already have good trade deals with. Supposedly these were put on to get the border under control. But I’m told the border already is under control. So what is the purpose here? I don’t know; do you? I DO know that once trade wars start they are hard to extricate from. Canada has already retaliated. Now what?

Serious question: in what way do trade imbalances hurt us? I’ve never understood this.

I imagine there are some liberals out there who take pleasure in some of the Trump supporters expressing nervousness about what’s going on. I’m not one of them. I wish things were working out better. I hope they still do. Most of the folks who voted for Donald Trump are, IMO, decent and well meaning people who wanted what’s best for this country and believed (mistakenly IMO) that he was the correct choice. I would prefer they not be punished for that mistake.

I understand, though disagree, that a justification can be made for tariffs when other countries have unfair trading practices against us. But that’s not the case with Mexico and Canada. We had trade agreements that I be line were pretty fair- first NAFTA, and then the one Trump negotiated: which to his credit was even better than NAFTA. Now we have unilaterally torn those up.

It’s none of your focking business what they do.

Garry Kasparov asked a question tonight: “If Vladimir Putin were in the White House, what would he be doing differently from Trump?” The answer of course…is NOTHING

The journalist Maddow had on is reporting that the halt of support to Ukraine is somewhat meaningless as we have already delivered all of the supplies pledged to them for this period of time, and that it’s a temporary halt anyhow. If true this is yet another example of Trump testing the waters to see what the reaction will be, so that he can reverse himself later and claim he never did it. Hopefully that’s the case (hopefully it’s also the case with the tariffs though it doesn’t sound like it.)

We wouldn’t have to say. I know your simplistic mind has trouble with this but there are all kinds of nuances to “security guarantee.” It could mean cutting off all trade with Russia should they invade and renewed financial and military support for Ukraine. Who knows? The guarantee would be left wide open as it is for Taiwan. We have no military agreement with Taiwan but we are pledged to their security. If China invades they have no idea what we might do which is the entire point.

Zelensky didn’t start this war. His country was invaded. Damn you are such a moron.

You’re really persistent about this aren’t you? And it’s silly. Of course we should give them a security guarantee. It doesn’t have to be boots on the ground. But if we ask Ukraine to agree to a ceasefire deal that Russia has broken several times in the past there has to be some kind of assurance. But what difference does it make now? By cutting off aid to Ukraine we’ve taken ourselves out of the picture. I was hopeful for some kind of agreement but I have no idea where this goes now. What a mess.

I think this is a terrible mistake. So many mistakes by this President. I believe America will suffer because of this.

Lolol. But I already knew this. Go back to the kids table, mmkay? The grownups are talking serious stuff here.

Here is the University of Virginia weighing in: https://news.darden.virginia.edu/2025/02/04/qa-what-are-tariffs-and-how-will-they-affect-us/ 1. Weakened economic growth 2. Eliminated jobs 3. Increased consumer costs 4. Large negative impact to agriculture, automotive industry, and energy sectors. 5. Major disruption of supply chains and global trade. But hey what could go wrong?

I sure hope so. Can you explain in your own words how and why I am wrong?

I’m just telling you that most economists disagree that the negative results will be minor.

Except that both Canada and Mexico asked the Trump administration very specifically what new steps we are demanding in terms of limiting fentanyl and they were given no answer. There appears to be no reason given for these new tariffs, no demands made and no discussion of how they will end. We had a trade deal with these two neighbors that Trump himself negotiated and called the greatest deal ever. Now he’s canceled it. Why?

Sure. But I think the tariffs are a much bigger catalyst don’t you?

So basically you’re arguing, based on that study, that the effects will be at most a 1.2% increase- effectively minimal. I don’t believe it. I’ve read several economists argue that this will be a significant tax on consumers. Here is Warren Buffett: https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/warren-buffett-says-tariffs-economic-act-war-tooth-fairy-doesnt-pay-em.amp Your study also doesn’t take into account the effects on our economy of the retaliatory tariffs which both Canada and Mexico have pledged to enact immediately after tomorrow. You’re not educating me. I’ve read such analysis before. The overwhelming number of economists have a much more dire view of this. But you know what? I hope you’re right.

Apparently the answer to my question is ….yes. Hope you guys are happy. Total insanity IMO.

I heard the former ambassador to Russia on MSNBC just now. He made what I thought were several good points. I’m going to list them here by memory and I invite you guys to comment (especially those who believe that Trump is doing a good job here.): 1. There are only two ways to end a war: one side wins or a stalemate forces the two sides to reach a peace agreement. President Trump, by threatening to stop all aid to Ukraine, is not promoting the stalemate, he is actively helping Russia to win. 2. Prior to negotiating for a peace agreement, Trump openly and publicly made the following concessions to Russia: no NATO membership for Ukraine, no American boots on the ground, no returning to the borders prior to the invasion (Ukraine has to give up some of its land) a return to the G7 for Russia. These were all demands Putin has made that could have been negotiated with Russia in exchange for an end to the fighting and guarantees on Russia’s part. Instead they were made without getting anything back from Russia in return. This suggests to the Ambassador that Trump is not serious about these negotiations other than forcing Ukraine to agree to whatever Putin demands. 3. In the last couple of days the Russian media has issued new demands: limiting the Ukraine army to 100,000 men, having its foreign policy and trade policies subject to Russian veto, and the resignation of Zelensky as President. Readers of history will recognize the similarity between these sorts of demands and the ones Hitler made on small countries before destroying them. 4. Meanwhile Trump has told his people that the only way he will even consider working with Zelensky again is if (a) Zelensky expresses gratitude- not to America by to Trump- (b) signs the minerals and (c) publicly apologizes to Trump on camera before the entire world.

The Republican narrative has been set and I’ve heard it all yesterday and this morning: This is all Zelensky’s fault. He FAFO. Trump and Vance are blameless, only looking after America’s best interests and looking for peace. Zelensky is looking to prolong the war to stay in power, we need to cut him off or he needs to resign. Or he needs to apologize, grovel, and agree to whatever Trump proposes. if a small number of conservatives don’t believe this garbage at the moment,, they almost all will by the end of the week. This alternative reality is what the rest of us is dealing with.