Sean Mooney

Because you are talking to maybe the biggest soft brain on the board

Still showing PA tied?

Hmm....somebody definitely said 350...not sure who it was then

Some early voting return news from PA: There were 2,184,683 mail in ballots requested. There have been 1,739,606 returned meaning 79.6% return rate. Within that 1,739,606 this is the breakdown: Democrats: 971,615 ballots returned, making up 55.9% of all accepted mail ballots. Out of 1,192,956 ballots requested by Democrats, 81.4% have been returned. Republicans: 571,725 ballots returned, accounting for 32.9% of accepted mail ballots. Republicans requested 711,974 ballots in total, with a return rate of 80.3%. None/Minor Parties: 196,266 ballots returned, making up 11.3% of the total. Out of 279,753 requested by unaffiliated or minor party voters, 70.2% have been returned. Now for some 2020/2022 related context before people decide what they think it all means: There were about 1 million more main in ballots requested in 2020 (perhaps we can assume that was due to COVID). In 2022- there were about 1.3 million ballots requested at this point (usually non presidential year voting is lower). In 2020- 65% of mail in ballots came from Democrats, and 23% came from Republicans. So some gains for Republicans in that regard. A little more than 26% of Pennsylvania’s mail ballots have been requested from Montgomery, Delaware, Bucks, and Chester Counties, which account for nearly 40% of the registered voters in the state. Philadelphia makes up nearly 11% of the approved mail ballot applications, and is home to nearly 23% of the state’s registered voters. So currently by numbers 420,000 more Democrats have voted- but obviously they might not all be votes for Harris, anymore than all 571,000 Republican votes would be all for Trump. Also, is the increase in Republican mail in because they are being assured to do it more this time or is it new voters they've tapped- the difference between Democrats and Republicans in 2020 was Democrats +686K. In 2024 it is Democrats +298K Make of all those numbers what you want. I still hold that PA will flip back to Trump in this election and swing Trump to be sworn in as the 47th President.

The poll methodology doesn't mention how many black people they talked to but I could see they polled 622 people and 1.9% were black. 1.9% of 622 is 12. My point stands too that they overrepresented the white population of NH in the poll and underrepresented the black population (to varying degrees on both). So it was too small a sample size AND misrepresented the population to varying degrees.

So is that a "no" on giving me Harris +187?

Jerry- I said the 12 was out of the 21000 people in the black population which would be .06%. I pointed out the 2% in my initial post by referencing the number referred to in the methodology. The census data you have shows 88% white and the poll was 95% white people....that is an overrepresentation of a group and one that we know skews towards Trump nationally.

You said people will vote to oust the current administration. I said they will as well. I said they are voting for their perceptions and not realities and that the polling indicates they feel they are personally doing well but overall the economy is not....you have ignored that as you try to twist it into something you want it to be. I also said for someone like you who has advocated people should not vote for their feelings but rather the facts you seem to be on the flip side here because it is more advantageous to your position. You seem to ignore that in all of this. But again it's what you do- when you get cornered you just twist in the wind and accuse people of lying, misrepresenting you, gaslighting. I'm used to it from you at this point

I had hoped maybe time would bring you to the truth of your positions. It has not I see. Continue lying to make yourself feel better.

But then why even say it. No one would say "Harris will sweep Texas, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Oklahoma" because they know it is almost assuredly not going to happen. You know it is almost assuredly not going to happen that all 7 swing states and 1 of three left leaning states will fall to Trump. You are the one who created the parlay though. Pretty sure you called Trump to have 350 electoral votes. So then give me Harris +187.

That is a pretty good look at the real issues that surround some of this outside of just fear mongering.

Dude- I'm not going on this circle with you again. You looked like a fool there, you looked like a fool on the whole idea about Trump not needing to admit mistakes. Just stop while you are way behind.

From the start I've said Trump will win because PA will flip. You've said it will be a Trump bloodbath and you said all seven swing states will go for Trump and one of Virginia, New Hampshire, Minnesota. Now you want to put conditions on it. Sounds like you are not strong in your convictions.

You are calling a swing state sweep and one of NH, Minnesota, Virginia to flip... Care to make a friendly wager on that? Winner gets to select a new username for the loser until the end of 2024.

To me it isn't so much about agreeing or disagreeing with a poll although I understand there are individual biases that are in play. But looking at the methodology of a study shows how reliable it is or is not....the methodology and sample size here should make one take pause.

Several people who served as fake electors in the scheme to overturn the 2020 election may be electors in the 2024 election, despite the fact that they’re facing felony charges. Politico reported on Monday that across seven battleground states, eight of the 93 prospective Republican electors are facing criminal charges for their role in the scheme orchestrated by former President Donald Trump’s campaign. Some of them continue to push the lie that Trump won the 2020 election that he lost to President Joe Biden. Politico wrote this article on it: https://www.politico.com/news/2024/11/04/trump-fake-electors-return-election-denial-00186977-

There are about 21,000 black people in New Hampshire according to the 2022 census. The poll talked to 12, or .06%. That is not an accurate representation- especially when factored into the poll demographics

I've not misrepresented you once. Multiple times I've presented your words against you and just watched you twist in the wind. It's not lying, it's not gaslighting, it's not whatever word you want to attach next. I do not have a problem with people voting their feelings or reality. I'm not a hypocrite like you in that regard where I will twist one way and then the other.

Maximum Overkill is/was LeagueChampion and Blue Horseshoe....same posting style, same reliance on Twitter links and long thread titles with emojis in them. Same shallow thought process as well.

You are calling a swing state sweep and one of NH, Minnesota, Virginia to flip... Care to make a friendly wager on that? Winner gets to select a new username for the loser until the end of 2024.

I do love too that every poll in New Hampshire is in favor of Harris by like: +4, +5, +7, +9, +21, +11 and then you find one that says Trump is up 1% and your thought process is "OMG THAT SHOWS BLOODBATH!" and not "Hmm....that one seems like an outlier, much like that +21 in favor of Harris"

1.) Yes it is always you being "misrepresented." The more accurate descriptor is you are very hypocritical about things in discussions. 2.) I don't have a problem with people voting in favor of their feelings over facts. I'm also not the one who has complained about that in the past here who is in favor of it now..

Yes we know- your feelings on inflation- all one party, no blame to the other....got it. They are going to vote the other way because their perception is different than what they feel their reality is- as every poll I've shared points out. Feelz not facts....it's fine- just admit it.

First off- boy you can't even go like an hour or two without mentioning me. This even after I decided to ease up on running you into the ground. Just sad man. And no of course not everyone's reality is the same: Case in point- I have a functioning brain in my head capable of critical thought. You have a 14-month-old, moldy salami sandwich in your head that fuels your autistic rage. So no our realities are not the same. Now run along

It does not only benefit the wealthy. That's silly. And yes people might vote them out- because they are voting their perceptions and not their reality. Again- feelz, not facts.